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Governor · South Dakota

South Dakota Governor

Dan Ahlers vs Larry Rhoden

ForecastR +13.9

Democrat4%

Republican96%

RatingSafe R

Full forecast

Brief me as

Neutral view. Pick a side and the War Room briefs you as that campaign's operative.

Vital signs

Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity

DemocratDan AhlersNot enough data

Early vote weight 1519
Registered Democrats cast 30% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 53% for the other party. That is 3.9 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
National tide weight 1581
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.05 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.7 points of that tide, a tailwind for Dan Ahlers.

RepublicanLarry RhodenNot enough data

Early vote weight 1581
Registered Republicans cast 53% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 30% for the other party. That is 3.9 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
National tide weight 1519
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.05 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.7 points of that tide, a headwind for Larry Rhoden.

How each side wins

From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots

If you work for Dan Ahlers

Close the gap
Dan Ahlers trails by 13.9 and wins 4% of simulations. Closing it takes about 26,795 voters switching sides, or 53,590 more net votes from new turnout.
The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +23.0 and R +4.3. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
The polls
The polls page average is R +18.0. Your best recent poll is Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) at R +12.7; your worst is Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and USD Chiesman Center at R +19.2. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Minnehaha, a projected net 7,383 votes; Oglala Lakota, a projected net 2,778 votes; Clay, a projected net 1,636 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Minnehaha, D +8.9, 21.7% of the vote; Pennington, R +10.4, 13.1% of the vote; Lincoln, R +9.3, 8.2% of the vote; Brown, R +9.6, 4.0% of the vote.
Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Dan Ahlers runs furthest behind in Butte, Hughes, Meade. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 91% of voters, 40 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.56 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 74% of voters, 40 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.69 points; Voters without a degree, 64% of voters, 40 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.19 points.
Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Dan Ahlers: Immigration voters 16 to 82, Voters who can afford daily costs 32 to 66, Incomes $125K and up 36 to 62. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 30% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 53% for the other party. That is 3.9 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
Larry Rhoden's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 53% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 30% for the other party.

If you work for Larry Rhoden

Protect the lead
Larry Rhoden leads by 13.9 in the forecast and wins 96% of simulations. The cushion is about 53,590 votes; a one point swing is about 1,922 voters changing sides.
The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +4.3 and R +23.0. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
The polls
The polls page average is R +18.0. Your best recent poll is Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and USD Chiesman Center at R +19.2; your worst is Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) at R +12.7. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Meade, a projected net 5,501 votes; Pennington, a projected net 5,218 votes; Codington, a projected net 3,200 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Minnehaha, D +8.9, 21.7% of the vote; Pennington, R +10.4, 13.1% of the vote; Lincoln, R +9.3, 8.2% of the vote; Brown, R +9.6, 4.0% of the vote.
Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Larry Rhoden runs furthest behind in Clay, Minnehaha, Brookings. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 91% of voters, 58 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.56 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 74% of voters, 58 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.69 points; Voters without a degree, 64% of voters, 57 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.19 points.
Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Larry Rhoden: Independents 29 to 67, Moderates 31 to 66, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 33 to 64. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 53% of the 49,438 ballots in South Dakota so far, against 30% for the other party. That is 3.9 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
Dan Ahlers's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.

The map for Ahlers

County projections from the forecast

Vote banksWhere the biggest net margins come from

County	Forecast	Vote share	Net D
Minnehaha	D +8.9	21.7%	+7,383
Oglala Lakota	D +85.3	0.8%	+2,778
Clay	D +29.0	1.5%	+1,636
Todd	D +68.9	0.6%	+1,530

BattlegroundsLarge counties within 12 points

County	Forecast	Vote share	Net D
Minnehaha	D +8.9	21.7%	+7,383
Pennington	R +10.4	13.1%	-5,218
Lincoln	R +9.3	8.2%	-2,930
Brown	R +9.6	4%	-1,478

Behind the 2024 mapRunning furthest behind the last presidential vote

County	Forecast	Vote share	Net D
Butte	R +54.2	1.2%	-2,468
Hughes	R +23.1	2.1%	-1,828
Meade	R +41.7	3.4%	-5,501

The coalition

Ahlers against Rhoden among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates

Swing groups

White voters91% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.6
4058
Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202474% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.7
4058
Voters without a degree64% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
4157
Voters who find daily costs hard to afford58% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
4850

Weakest groups

Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
1682
Voters who can afford daily costs42% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.1
3266
Incomes $125K and up15% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
3662

AhlersRhoden

Scouting report

From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source

Dan Ahlers

No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.

Larry Rhoden

No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.

The forecast

Margin over recent runs

Now: R +13.9
8 in 10 land between: R +4.3 and R +23.0
Polling average: R +18.0
Partisan lean: R +28.4

Recent polls

Last 45 days

Pollster	Days ago	Sample	Result
Emerson College	0	803 LV	R +17.2
Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and USD Chiesman Center	1	500 LV	R +19.2
Concord Public Opinion Partners (D)	7	400 LV	R +12.7