2026 forecast
South Dakota Senate forecast
Brian Bengs vs Mike Rounds. The model has Rounds ahead by 12.8 points, winning 96 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
66 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +4.3 and R +21.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +2.7 | |
| Zenith Research | 500 LV | 16d | R +5.9 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 629 RV | 34d | R +3.9 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | 500 LV | 44d | D +4.9 |
| Impact Research (D) | 500 LV | 57d | R +2.0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 500 LV | 96d | R +20.1 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Bengs | Rounds |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 39.2 | 60.8 |
| Women | 52% | 47.6 | 52.4 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 49.1 | 50.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 44.3 | 55.7 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 40.6 | 59.4 |
| 65+ | 32% | 43.6 | 56.4 |
| RaceWhite | 89% | 39.9 | 60.1 |
| Black | 1% | 87.6 | 12.4 |
| Latino | 2% | 60.7 | 39.3 |
| Asian and other | 8% | 72.5 | 27.5 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 42% | 34.4 | 65.6 |
| White women | 47% | 44.8 | 55.2 |
| Latino men | 1% | 58.3 | 41.7 |
| Latino women | 1% | 63.3 | 36.7 |
| All other races | 8% | 72.5 | 27.5 |