2026 forecast
Kentucky Senate forecast
Charles Booker vs Andy Barr, an open seat. The model has Barr ahead by 12.9 points, winning 97 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
120 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +4.2 and R +21.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +12.1 | |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 600 LV | 47d | R +10.9 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 650 RV | 298d | R +11.9 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Booker | Barr |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 38.9 | 61.1 |
| Women | 54% | 47.6 | 52.4 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 47.9 | 52.1 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 44.9 | 55.1 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 40.4 | 59.6 |
| 65+ | 31% | 44.1 | 55.9 |
| RaceWhite | 88% | 38.3 | 61.7 |
| Black | 7% | 88.4 | 11.6 |
| Latino | 2% | 63.2 | 36.8 |
| Asian and other | 3% | 73.5 | 26.5 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 40% | 32.8 | 67.2 |
| White women | 47% | 43.0 | 57.0 |
| Black men | 3% | 85.9 | 14.1 |
| Black women | 4% | 90.6 | 9.4 |
| Latino women | 1% | 65.0 | 35.0 |
| All other races | 3% | 73.5 | 26.5 |