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Connecticut Governor
Ned Lamont vs Ryan Fazio
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Cash weight 2021
$2.2M in the bank against $8.4M for Ryan Fazio.
- Early vote weight 1585
Registered Democrats cast 52% of the 38,511 ballots in Connecticut so far, against 18% for the other party. That is 1.5 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.97 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.6 points of that tide, a tailwind for Ned Lamont.
- Cash weight 2079
$8.4M in the bank against $2.2M for Ned Lamont.
- Early vote weight 1516
Registered Republicans cast 18% of the 38,511 ballots in Connecticut so far, against 52% for the other party. That is 1.5 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.97 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.6 points of that tide, a headwind for Ryan Fazio.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Ned Lamont leads by 18.1 in the forecast and wins 99% of simulations. The cushion is about 259,259 votes; a one point swing is about 7,178 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +10.4 and D +25.6. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +18.7. Your best recent poll is Sacred Heart University / WFSB / CT Insider at D +25.7; your worst is co/efficient (R) at D +10.8. 6 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Hartford, a projected net 112,678 votes; Fairfield, a projected net 88,994 votes; New Haven, a projected net 40,372 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Tolland, D +5.0, 5.3% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Ned Lamont runs furthest behind in Litchfield, Windham, Tolland. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 79% of voters, 55 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.96 points; Large counties, 72% of voters, 61 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.58 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 64% of voters, 60 to 39, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.17 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Ned Lamont: Immigration voters 25 to 74, Midsize counties 51 to 47, Voters who can afford daily costs 54 to 45. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.2M cash against $8.4M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 52% of the 38,511 ballots in Connecticut so far, against 18% for the other party. That is 1.5 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Ryan Fazio's strongest asset
Cash: $8.4M in the bank against $2.2M for Ned Lamont.
- Close the gap
Ryan Fazio trails by 18.1 and wins 1% of simulations. Closing it takes about 129,629 voters switching sides, or 259,259 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +25.6 and D +10.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +18.7. Your best recent poll is co/efficient (R) at D +10.8; your worst is Sacred Heart University / WFSB / CT Insider at D +25.7. 6 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Litchfield, a projected net 8,791 votes; Windham, a projected net 6,585 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Tolland, D +5.0, 5.3% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Ryan Fazio runs furthest behind in Fairfield, Hartford. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 79% of voters, 44 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.96 points; Large counties, 72% of voters, 38 to 61, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.58 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 64% of voters, 39 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.17 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Ryan Fazio: Black voters 20 to 79, Health care and Social Security voters 23 to 76, Corruption voters 25 to 74. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$8.4M cash against $2.2M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 18% of the 38,511 ballots in Connecticut so far, against 52% for the other party. That is 1.5 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Ned Lamont's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 52% of the 38,511 ballots in Connecticut so far, against 18% for the other party.
The map for Lamont
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hartford | D +28.4 | 27.7% | +112,678 |
| Fairfield | D +27.8 | 22.3% | +88,994 |
| New Haven | D +13.0 | 21.7% | +40,372 |
| New London | D +13.7 | 8.9% | +17,520 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tolland | D +5.0 | 5.3% | +3,790 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Litchfield | R +12.6 | 4.9% | -8,791 |
| Windham | R +13.8 | 3.3% | -6,585 |
| Tolland | D +5.0 | 5.3% | +3,790 |
The coalition
Lamont against Fazio among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters79% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.0
- Large counties72% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.6
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202464% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Midsize counties28% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.4
- Voters who can afford daily costs41% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +18.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +25.6 and D +10.4
- Polling average
- D +18.7
- Partisan lean
- D +16.3
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/Nexstar Media | 3 | 800 LV | D +13.8 |
| Quinnipiac University Polling Institute | 3 | 1,225 LV | D +18.8 |
| Sacred Heart University / WFSB / CT Insider | 3 | 1,000 LV | D +25.7 |
| Wesleyan SurveyLab/YouGov | 8 | 420 LV | D +22.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 24 | 540 LV | D +17.3 |
| co/efficient (R) | 28 | 979 LV | D +10.8 |
| Quinnipiac University Polling Institute | 31 | 1,288 LV | D +15.9 |
| GreatBlue Research | 37 | 1,000 RV | D +13.8 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Lamont | Fazio | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | n/a | n/a |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $2.2M | $8.4M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Connecticut, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 38,511
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +33.5
- Forecast expected
- D +35.0
- Against expectation
- 1.5 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
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