2026 forecast
South Dakota Governor forecast
Dan Ahlers vs Larry Rhoden. The model has Rhoden ahead by 9.6 points, winning 90 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
66 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +0.1 and R +18.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +9.7 | |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | 500 LV | 44d | R +9.1 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Ahlers | Rhoden |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 40.1 | 58.3 |
| Women | 52% | 48.3 | 50.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 50.4 | 47.9 |
| 30 to 44 | 22% | 45.3 | 53.1 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 41.4 | 57.1 |
| 65+ | 32% | 44.1 | 54.3 |
| RaceWhite | 89% | 40.9 | 57.6 |
| Black | 1% | 87.4 | 11.0 |
| Latino | 2% | 61.1 | 37.3 |
| Asian and other | 8% | 72.2 | 25.9 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 42% | 35.5 | 63.0 |
| White women | 47% | 45.6 | 52.9 |
| Latino men | 1% | 58.8 | 39.5 |
| Latino women | 1% | 63.6 | 34.8 |
| All other races | 8% | 72.2 | 25.9 |