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Oklahoma Senate
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas vs Kevin Hern
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 251
Raised $57K against $10.8M for Kevin Hern.
- Cash weight 200
$456 in the bank against $2.5M for Kevin Hern. As of 08/05/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas and $2.6M helping Kevin Hern.
- Early vote weight 1543
Registered Democrats cast 42% of the 31,606 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 45% for the other party. That is 3.3 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1579
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.95 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas.
- Activity weight 1025
$300 in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $456 against $2.5M.
- Money weight 25100
Raised $10.8M against $57K for N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas.
- Cash weight 20100
$2.5M in the bank against $456 for N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $2.6M helping Kevin Hern and $0 helping N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas.
- Early vote weight 1557
Registered Republicans cast 45% of the 31,606 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 3.3 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.95 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Kevin Hern.
- Activity weight 1025
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas trails by 22.7 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 148,582 voters switching sides, or 297,163 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +29.6 and R +15.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Oklahoma, a projected net 38,199 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Tulsa, R +5.2, 16.8% of the vote; Cleveland, R +1.8, 7.8% of the vote; Comanche, R +9.2, 2.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas runs furthest behind in Washington, Wagoner, Rogers. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 65% of voters, 33 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.24 points; Voters without a degree, 64% of voters, 33 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.22 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 59% of voters, 40 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.94 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas: Immigration voters 14 to 78, Small counties 21 to 70, Voters who can afford daily costs 28 to 63. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$456 cash against $2.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 42% of the 31,606 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 45% for the other party. That is 3.3 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Kevin Hern's strongest asset
Cash: $2.5M in the bank against $456 for N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas.
- Protect the lead
Kevin Hern leads by 22.7 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 297,163 votes; a one point swing is about 6,548 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +15.4 and R +29.6. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Rogers, a projected net 18,859 votes; Canadian, a projected net 16,923 votes; Wagoner, a projected net 14,249 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Tulsa, R +5.2, 16.8% of the vote; Cleveland, R +1.8, 7.8% of the vote; Comanche, R +9.2, 2.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Kevin Hern runs furthest behind in Oklahoma, Cherokee, Comanche. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 65% of voters, 58 to 33, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.24 points; Voters without a degree, 64% of voters, 57 to 33, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.22 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 59% of voters, 50 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.94 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Kevin Hern: Black voters 18 to 72, Independents 23 to 58, Moderates 34 to 52. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.5M cash against $456. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 45% of the 31,606 ballots in Oklahoma so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 3.3 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Thomas
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | D +15.3 | 19.1% | +38,199 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa | R +5.2 | 16.8% | -11,363 |
| Cleveland | R +1.8 | 7.8% | -1,884 |
| Comanche | R +9.2 | 2.2% | -2,712 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | R +44.0 | 1.5% | -8,529 |
| Wagoner | R +45.6 | 2.4% | -14,249 |
| Rogers | R +49.3 | 2.9% | -18,859 |
The coalition
Thomas against Hern among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202465% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters without a degree64% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Women52% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Immigration voters12% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Small counties37% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
- Voters who can afford daily costs41% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.1
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +22.7
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +15.4 and R +29.6
- Polling average
- R +24.0
- Partisan lean
- R +33.4
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 08/05/2026| Thomas | Hern | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $57K | $10.8M |
| Spent | $58K | $7.5M |
| Cash on hand | $456 | $2.5M |
| Outside money for | $0 | $2.6M |
| Google ads | $300 | $0 |
The early vote
Oklahoma, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 31,606
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +3.2
- Forecast expected
- D +0.1
- Against expectation
- 3.3 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-01Donald Trump rally in Durant
Evening midterm rally at Choctaw Event Center. Source