2026 forecast
Connecticut Governor forecast
Ned Lamont vs Ryan Fazio. The model has Lamont ahead by 19.2 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
8 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +26.7 and D +11.3. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +19.0 | |
| University of New Hampshire | 540 LV | 22d | D +17.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 540 LV | 22d | D +17.3 |
| co/efficient (R) | 979 LV | 26d | D +10.8 |
| Quinnipiac University Polling Institute | 1,288 LV | 29d | D +16.4 |
| GreatBlue Research | 1,000 RV | 35d | D +14.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 809 LV | 50d | D +15.3 |
| Sacred Heart University / WFSB / CT Insider | 1,000 RV | 79d | D +19.5 |
| University of New Hampshire | 828 LV | 112d | D +13.3 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Lamont | Fazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 53.7 | 44.6 |
| Women | 54% | 63.1 | 35.3 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 59.1 | 39.2 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 55.3 | 43.1 |
| 45 to 64 | 35% | 57.8 | 40.5 |
| 65+ | 29% | 62.2 | 36.1 |
| RaceWhite | 73% | 51.6 | 46.7 |
| Black | 10% | 86.7 | 11.7 |
| Latino | 11% | 70.0 | 28.5 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 78.8 | 19.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 33% | 44.7 | 53.6 |
| White women | 40% | 57.4 | 41.0 |
| Black men | 5% | 84.1 | 14.3 |
| Black women | 5% | 89.0 | 9.4 |
| Latino men | 6% | 67.9 | 30.5 |
| Latino women | 6% | 71.9 | 26.5 |
| All other races | 6% | 78.8 | 19.3 |