How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Alaska Governor
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs Bernadette Wilson
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Cash weight 2085
$1.2M in the bank against $207K for Bernadette Wilson.
- Air cover weight 1547
Outside groups spent $1.4M helping Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and $1.6M helping Bernadette Wilson.
- National tide weight 1577
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.88 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.
- Activity weight 1025
2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Cash weight 2015
$207K in the bank against $1.2M for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.
- Air cover weight 1553
Outside groups spent $1.6M helping Bernadette Wilson and $1.4M helping Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.
- National tide weight 1523
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.88 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Bernadette Wilson.
- Activity weight 1025
2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $207K against $1.2M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads by 5.1 in the forecast and wins 86% of simulations. The cushion is about 14,834 votes; a one point swing is about 1,454 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +1.0 and D +11.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +8.0. Your best recent poll is Alaska Survey Research at D +8.0; your worst is Data for Progress (D) at R +4.2. 6 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Anchorage Municipality, a projected net 36,115 votes; Juneau City and Borough, a projected net 8,072 votes; Fairbanks North Star Borough, a projected net 6,664 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Kenai Peninsula Borough, R +1.9, 9.4% of the vote; Copper River Census Area, R +6.6, 0.4% of the vote.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 76% of voters, 42 to 30, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.80 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 70% of voters, 47 to 27, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.48 points; Midsize counties, 68% of voters, 46 to 28, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.42 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: Immigration voters 19 to 44, Voters who can afford daily costs 39 to 32, Incomes $125K and up 40 to 31. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.2M cash against $207K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Bernadette Wilson's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $1.6M helping Bernadette Wilson and $1.4M helping Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.
- Close the gap
Bernadette Wilson trails by 5.1 and wins 14% of simulations. Closing it takes about 7,417 voters switching sides, or 14,834 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.2 and R +1.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +8.0. Your best recent poll is Data for Progress (D) at R +4.2; your worst is Alaska Survey Research at D +8.0. 6 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Matanuska-Susitna Borough, a projected net 7,986 votes; Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, a projected net 939 votes; Kenai Peninsula Borough, a projected net 510 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Kenai Peninsula Borough, R +1.9, 9.4% of the vote; Copper River Census Area, R +6.6, 0.4% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Bernadette Wilson runs furthest behind in Sitka City and Borough, Juneau City and Borough, Kodiak Island Borough. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 76% of voters, 30 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.80 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 70% of voters, 27 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.48 points; Midsize counties, 68% of voters, 28 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.42 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Bernadette Wilson: Independents 18 to 68, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 16 to 64, Moderates 18 to 62. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$207K cash against $1.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins's strongest asset
Cash: $1.2M in the bank against $207K for Bernadette Wilson.
The map for Kreiss-Tomkins
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage Municipality | D +30.7 | 40.4% | +36,115 |
| Juneau City and Borough | D +58.4 | 4.8% | +8,072 |
| Fairbanks North Star Borough | D +18.1 | 12.6% | +6,664 |
| Bethel Census Area | D +55.3 | 1.6% | +2,550 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenai Peninsula Borough | R +1.9 | 9.4% | -510 |
| Copper River Census Area | R +6.6 | 0.4% | -78 |
The coalition
Kreiss-Tomkins against Wilson among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters76% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202470% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.5
- Midsize counties68% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters without a degree62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Voters who can afford daily costs40% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
- Incomes $125K and up14% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +5.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +11.3 and R +1.0
- Polling average
- D +8.0
- Partisan lean
- R +12.0
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | 0 | 694 LV | R +4.2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 0 | 1,568 LV | D +0.3 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 12 | 1,512 LV | D +8.0 |
| New York Times/Siena | 14 | 504 LV | D +4.0 |
| Cygnal (R) | 18 | 502 LV | D +3.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | 28 | 799 LV | Even |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 34 | 800 LV | D +10.0 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Kreiss-Tomkins | Wilson | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | n/a | n/a |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $1.2M | $207K |
| Outside money for | $1.4M | $1.6M |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Alaska, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 46,204
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +7.0
- Forecast expected
- R +6.5
- Against expectation
- 0.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-09-22Remy Numa analyst
Fox News Power Rankings moved Alaska governor from Lean R to Toss-Up. Source
- 2026-09-03Kyle Kondik analyst
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the open Alaska governor race from Likely Republican to Toss-up. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-08Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins debate in Anchorage
First Debate for the State broadcast from Alaska Public Media's Anchorage studio, with Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor. Source
- 2026-10-08Bernadette Wilson debate in Anchorage
First Debate for the State broadcast from Alaska Public Media's Anchorage studio, with Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor. Source
- 2026-10-07Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins debate in Juneau
Juneau Chamber of Commerce gubernatorial forum with Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson, per Wikipedia's debate table. Source
- 2026-10-07Bernadette Wilson debate in Juneau
Juneau Chamber of Commerce gubernatorial forum with Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Dave Bronson, per Wikipedia's debate table. Source