How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Georgia Senate
Jon Ossoff vs Mike Collins
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2592
Raised $110.4M against $9.6M for Mike Collins.
- Cash weight 2097
$42.6M in the bank against $1.2M for Mike Collins. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1552
Outside groups spent $18.7M helping Jon Ossoff and $17.6M helping Mike Collins.
- National tide weight 1567
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.49 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 6.9 points of that tide, a tailwind for Jon Ossoff.
- Activity weight 10100
9 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $17.3M in Google political ads this cycle. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- −2 Contested items in the watchdog file. 1 allegation on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
- Money weight 258
Raised $9.6M against $110.4M for Jon Ossoff.
- Cash weight 203
$1.2M in the bank against $42.6M for Jon Ossoff. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1549
Outside groups spent $17.6M helping Mike Collins and $18.7M helping Jon Ossoff.
- National tide weight 1534
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.49 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 6.9 points of that tide, a headwind for Mike Collins.
- Activity weight 1075
12 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $229K in Google political ads this cycle. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $1.2M against $42.6M.
- −4 Contested items in the watchdog file. 2 allegations on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Jon Ossoff leads by 11.3 in the forecast and wins 99% of simulations. The cushion is about 527,557 votes; a one point swing is about 23,343 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +5.5 and D +17.1. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +11.6. Your best recent poll is Echelon Insights for NetChoice at D +14.7; your worst is Quantus Insights at D +5.8. 10 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Fulton, a projected net 291,023 votes; DeKalb, a projected net 262,905 votes; Gwinnett, a projected net 122,814 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Paulding, R +11.4, 1.7% of the vote; Houston, D +1.4, 1.5% of the vote; Fayette, D +10.1, 1.4% of the vote; Lowndes, R +6.0, 0.9% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jon Ossoff runs furthest behind in Walton, Hall, Bartow. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 69% of voters, 55 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.47 points; White voters, 62% of voters, 42 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.12 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 60 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.10 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jon Ossoff: Immigration voters 22 to 76, Small counties 32 to 66, White voters 42 to 56. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$42.6M cash against $1.2M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Mike Collins's strongest asset
Activity: 12 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- An opening
a "scandal piñata," in Ossoff's words, over the House Ethics review, crypto trading and staff tied to white nationalist content; J Street Action Fund put $470,000 behind the extremism theme. Source
- Close the gap
Mike Collins trails by 11.3 and wins 1% of simulations. Closing it takes about 263,778 voters switching sides, or 527,557 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +17.1 and D +5.5. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +11.6. Your best recent poll is Quantus Insights at D +5.8; your worst is Echelon Insights for NetChoice at D +14.7. 10 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Cherokee, a projected net 38,171 votes; Hall, a projected net 29,331 votes; Forsyth, a projected net 25,640 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Paulding, R +11.4, 1.7% of the vote; Houston, D +1.4, 1.5% of the vote; Fayette, D +10.1, 1.4% of the vote; Lowndes, R +6.0, 0.9% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Mike Collins runs furthest behind in Gwinnett, Douglas, Newton. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 69% of voters, 44 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.47 points; White voters, 62% of voters, 56 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.12 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 38 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.10 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Mike Collins: Black voters 19 to 80, Large counties 24 to 74, Independents 24 to 72. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.2M cash against $42.6M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Jon Ossoff's strongest asset
Activity: 9 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- An opening
Collins ties him to Reid Hoffman and Epstein and says he relies on out of state donors; a year ago he was seen as the most vulnerable Senate Democrat as the only one up in a Trump 2024 state. Source
The map for Ossoff
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulton | D +58.7 | 10.6% | +291,023 |
| DeKalb | D +75.8 | 7.4% | +262,905 |
| Gwinnett | D +34.0 | 7.7% | +122,814 |
| Cobb | D +30.2 | 7.6% | +107,389 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paulding | R +11.4 | 1.7% | -8,999 |
| Houston | D +1.4 | 1.5% | +982 |
| Fayette | D +10.1 | 1.4% | +6,548 |
| Lowndes | R +6.0 | 0.9% | -2,651 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walton | R +37.2 | 1% | -18,166 |
| Hall | R +34.3 | 1.8% | -29,331 |
| Bartow | R +41.5 | 1% | -19,873 |
The coalition
Ossoff against Collins among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202469% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.5
- White voters62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters without a degree60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties22% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.1
- White voters62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message. lower costs by repealing Trump's tariffs, ending the Iran war and reversing Medicaid cuts. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. Collins ties him to Reid Hoffman and Epstein and says he relies on out of state donors; a year ago he was seen as the most vulnerable Senate Democrat as the only one up in a Trump 2024 state. Source
- Strongest coalition. Black voters, women, younger voters and college graduates; 61 percent of independents rate him positively. Source
- State of the race. AJC and UGA poll, October 7 to 15, Ossoff 48, Collins 40, 1,000 likely voters, margin 3.1 points. Source
- Notable recent event. SMP pulled its week 3 buy citing his lead, while SLF canceled $7.6M of Georgia reservations. Source
Top donor blocs: Small donors, Party and leadership, Enforcement and disclosure
- Main message. energy independence through more U.S. refineries and production, the Laken Riley Act, support for Trump's Iran strikes, and blaming Democrats for inflation. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. a "scandal piñata," in Ossoff's words, over the House Ethics review, crypto trading and staff tied to white nationalist content; J Street Action Fund put $470,000 behind the extremism theme. Source
- Strongest coalition. white voters, voters 65 and older and voters without a college degree, per the AJC and UGA poll; men split evenly. Source
- Attack line. ties Ossoff to Reid Hoffman and Epstein and says Ossoff relies on out of state donors. Source
- Notable recent event. SLF canceled $7.6M of Georgia reservations in October; Trump rally in Dalton for turnout. Source
Top donor blocs: Party and leadership, Crypto and finance, Trump world
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +11.3
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +17.1 and D +5.5
- Polling average
- D +11.6
- Partisan lean
- R +0.7
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 0 | 755 LV | D +8.7 |
| ActiVote | 0 | 400 LV | D +8.0 |
| UGA SPIA for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 0 | 1,000 LV | D +8.0 |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 0 | 508 LV | D +14.7 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 7 | 1,090 LV | D +9.2 |
| Big Data Poll (R) | 22 | 678 LV | D +12.4 |
| Big Data Poll | 22 | 678 LV | D +10.7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 22 | 1,200 LV | D +8.1 |
| YouGov | 27 | 3,303 LV | D +9.2 |
| Quantus Insights | 29 | 645 LV | D +5.8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 31 | 1,019 LV | D +8.5 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 33 | 1,091 LV | D +7.2 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Ossoff | Collins | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $110.4M | $9.6M |
| Spent | $39.7M | $9.7M |
| Cash on hand | $42.6M | $1.2M |
| Outside money for | $18.7M | $17.6M |
| Google ads | $17.3M | $229K |
- Senate Leadership Fund against Jon Ossoff$11.8M
- The Georgia Way against Mike Collins$7.1M
- Lower Costs Now against Mike Collins$5.6M
- No Going Back PAC against Jon Ossoff$5.2M
- AB PAC for Jon Ossoff$2.1M
- New Engagement PAC against Mike Collins$2.0M
- J Street Action Fund against Mike Collins$470K
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$11.7M
- Senate Leadership Fund, withdrawal in one filing Oct 21 to 22 Source$-238896
The early vote
Georgia, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 1,780,239
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +8.5
- Forecast expected
- D +10.1
- Against expectation
- 1.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20David Axelrod commentator, leans D
Said Ossoff is the least likely competitive incumbent to lose. Source
- 2026-10-14Chris Hayes host, leans D
Anchored All In live from Atlanta covering the Georgia Senate race. Source
- 2026-10-13Donna Lowry host
Moderated the Atlanta Press Club debate between Jon Ossoff and Mike Collins on GPB. Source
- 2026-10-08Rick Folbaum host
Moderated the Atlanta News First Senate debate between Ossoff and Collins aired on Gray stations. Source
- 2026-09-22Remy Numa analyst
Fox News Power Rankings moved Georgia Senate from Lean D to Likely D. Source
- 2026-09-02Rich Baris analyst, leans R
Told The Bulwark that Michigan and Georgia are effectively locks for El-Sayed and Jon Ossoff. Source
- 2026-08-23Joey Jones host, leans R
Pondered whether Jon Ossoff was emulating Trump with his Natalie Harp dig. Source
- 2026-08-21Joe Scarborough host, leans D
Said the White House freak out over Ossoff's Natalie Harp jab makes no sense. Source
- 2026-08-20Chris Cuomo host, leans other
Confronted Bill O'Reilly for saying he would back Putin over Ossoff. Source
- 2026-08-18Bill O'Reilly host, leans R
On No Spin News called Ossoff's Natalie Harp remark a gutter snipe statement and said he would support Putin over Ossoff. Source
- 2026-08-13Harry Enten analyst
Highlighted Jon Ossoff leading by 13 points as one of three Southern Senate races where Democrats lead. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-28Barack Obama announced in Atlanta
Rally announced; venue not stated. Source
- 2026-10-28Kamala Harris announced in Atlanta
Start of a three day Georgia swing through Oct 30 with voter protection events. Atlanta event Oct 28 alongside Barack Obama. Source
- 2026-10-28Jon Ossoff announced in Atlanta
Scheduled rally with former President Barack Obama and Keisha Lance Bottoms from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m., venue not yet announced. Source
- 2026-10-26Mike Collins event in Jefferson
Monday meeting with supporters during the last week of early voting. Source
- 2026-10-26Mike Collins event in Buford
Monday meeting with supporters during the last week of early voting. Source
- 2026-10-25Jon Ossoff event in Atlanta
Sunday service at Dream Center Church of Atlanta with Keisha Lance Bottoms and Penny Brown Reynolds, urging early in person voting. Source
- 2026-10-24Donald Trump announced in Perry
Fix: rally moved from Macon to Perry, at Guardian Centers per the GOP event listing, Trump remarks set for 7 p.m. Announced, not yet held. Jason Aldean is set to greet Trump and join him on stage. Source
- 2026-10-24Pete Buttigieg announced in
Announced Saturday get out the vote push in metro Atlanta with Ossoff and down ballot Democrats. Source
- 2026-10-24Mike Collins announced in Perry
Scheduled to appear at a rally with President Donald Trump. Source
- 2026-10-21Jon Ossoff event in Stonecrest
Panel on the cost of living, where Ossoff called on Mike Collins to disband his convoy captains program, according to his campaign. Source
- 2026-10-17Jon Ossoff rally in Atlanta
Rally at the Cobb Convention Center on the first weekend of early voting with governor nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms. Source
- 2026-10-16Mike Collins rally in Dalton
Spoke at President Donald Trump's rally at Dalton Municipal Airport alongside governor nominee Rick Jackson. Source