How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Alaska Senate
Mary Peltola vs Dan S. Sullivan
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2575
Raised $32.6M against $11.2M for Dan S. Sullivan.
- Cash weight 2038
$3.2M in the bank against $5.1M for Dan S. Sullivan. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1547
Outside groups spent $32.5M helping Mary Peltola and $36.6M helping Dan S. Sullivan.
- National tide weight 1583
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.15 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 16.1 points of that tide, a tailwind for Mary Peltola.
- Activity weight 1075
3 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $2.1M in Google political ads this cycle. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- −2 Contested items in the watchdog file. 1 allegation on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
- Money weight 2526
Raised $11.2M against $32.6M for Mary Peltola.
- Cash weight 2062
$5.1M in the bank against $3.2M for Mary Peltola. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1553
Outside groups spent $36.6M helping Dan S. Sullivan and $32.5M helping Mary Peltola.
- National tide weight 1517
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.15 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 16.1 points of that tide, a headwind for Dan S. Sullivan.
- Activity weight 10100
4 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 4 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $5.1M in Google political ads this cycle. 2 stories on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Mary Peltola leads by 4.5 in the forecast and wins 81% of simulations. The cushion is about 13,167 votes; a one point swing is about 1,450 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +2.2 and D +11.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +3.4. Your best recent poll is New York Times/Siena at D +6.3; your worst is Trafalgar Group (R) at R +0.8. 9 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Anchorage Municipality, a projected net 19,907 votes; Juneau City and Borough, a projected net 7,454 votes; Bethel Census Area, a projected net 3,156 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Fairbanks North Star Borough, R +1.4, 12.6% of the vote; Ketchikan Gateway Borough, R +5.9, 1.9% of the vote; Kodiak Island Borough, D +4.8, 1.7% of the vote; North Slope Borough, D +7.2, 0.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Mary Peltola runs furthest behind in Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, Ketchikan Gateway Borough. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 76% of voters, 44 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.81 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 69% of voters, 50 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.46 points; Midsize counties, 68% of voters, 48 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.40 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Mary Peltola: Immigration voters 20 to 72, Voters who can afford daily costs 42 to 52, Incomes $125K and up 43 to 50. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$3.2M cash against $5.1M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Dan S. Sullivan's strongest asset
Activity: 4 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- An opening
Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it: personal enrichment in office, with Peltola saying his wealth went from $3M to $8M; Newsweek relays an $8.4M Quiver estimate. He answers by attacking her lobbying. Source
- Close the gap
Dan S. Sullivan trails by 4.5 and wins 19% of simulations. Closing it takes about 6,583 voters switching sides, or 13,167 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.4 and R +2.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +3.4. Your best recent poll is Trafalgar Group (R) at R +0.8; your worst is New York Times/Siena at D +6.3. 9 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Matanuska-Susitna Borough, a projected net 19,090 votes; Kenai Peninsula Borough, a projected net 5,578 votes; Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, a projected net 1,732 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Fairbanks North Star Borough, R +1.4, 12.6% of the vote; Ketchikan Gateway Borough, R +5.9, 1.9% of the vote; Kodiak Island Borough, D +4.8, 1.7% of the vote; North Slope Borough, D +7.2, 0.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Dan S. Sullivan runs furthest behind in Bethel Census Area, Sitka City and Borough, Juneau City and Borough. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 76% of voters, 50 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.81 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 69% of voters, 44 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.46 points; Midsize counties, 68% of voters, 47 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.40 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Dan S. Sullivan: Independents 25 to 71, Asian and other voters 26 to 69, Health care and Social Security voters 29 to 66. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$5.1M cash against $3.2M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Mary Peltola's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
- An opening
Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it: Sullivan calls her a Lower 48 liberal, 16 times at one forum, and attacks her post-Congress lobbying income and a reported staff mistreatment story she calls gossip. Source
The map for Peltola
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anchorage Municipality | D +16.9 | 40.6% | +19,907 |
| Juneau City and Borough | D +52.7 | 4.9% | +7,454 |
| Bethel Census Area | D +66.7 | 1.6% | +3,156 |
| Sitka City and Borough | D +46.5 | 1.2% | +1,681 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks North Star Borough | R +1.4 | 12.6% | -510 |
| Ketchikan Gateway Borough | R +5.9 | 1.9% | -330 |
| Kodiak Island Borough | D +4.8 | 1.7% | +237 |
| North Slope Borough | D +7.2 | 0.8% | +168 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matanuska-Susitna Borough | R +44.3 | 14.8% | -19,090 |
| Southeast Fairbanks Census Area | R +56.5 | 1.1% | -1,732 |
| Ketchikan Gateway Borough | R +5.9 | 1.9% | -330 |
The coalition
Peltola against Sullivan among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters76% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202469% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.5
- Midsize counties68% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters without a degree62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Immigration voters12% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Voters who can afford daily costs40% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
- Incomes $125K and up15% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message: she runs as the Alaskan against a Washington insider, saying Sullivan arrived with $3M and now has $8M, while calling herself pro-development and a champion of the oil industry. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it: Sullivan calls her a Lower 48 liberal, 16 times at one forum, and attacks her post-Congress lobbying income and a reported staff mistreatment story she calls gossip. Source
- Strongest coalition: Alaska grassroots donors. She was the first Alaska Native woman elected to Congress and has more Alaska donors than Sullivan. Source
- Primary showing: she led the August 18 top four primary, 49.5 percent to 41.4 percent in the August 28 count. Source
- Notable recent event: a $17M third quarter and a final debate on October 16 that turned to personal attacks over wealth, lobbying and staff. Source
- Air war: AdImpact shows over $9M reserved by each side for the final three weeks, Republicans slightly ahead. Source
Top donor blocs: Small donors, Party and leadership, Mining and resources
- Main message: Alaska resource development and a Republican Senate, casting Peltola as a Lower 48 liberal who would let Democrats block ANWR. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it: personal enrichment in office, with Peltola saying his wealth went from $3M to $8M; Newsweek relays an $8.4M Quiver estimate. He answers by attacking her lobbying. Source
- Second vulnerability: a thin home base. Only about $135,000 of his first quarter money came from Alaskans, and he trailed Peltola in the primary 41.4 percent to 49.5 percent. Source
- Strongest asset: cash and outside air cover, with $7.30M cash against her $4.64M and $17M from the Senate Leadership Fund. Source
- Notable recent event: a second Dan Sullivan is on the ballot after the Alaska Supreme Court ruled on June 29; the incumbent is listed as the registered Republican incumbent. Source
- Final debate October 16 turned on wealth, lobbying and staff treatment. Source
Top donor blocs: Party and leadership, Pro-Israel, Oil and gas
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +4.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +11.4 and R +2.2
- Polling average
- D +3.4
- Partisan lean
- R +12.0
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 0 | 578 RV | R +0.3 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 0 | 775 LV | D +1.8 |
| Data for Progress (D) | 0 | 694 LV | D +0.8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 5 | 1,200 LV | D +2.1 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 12 | 1,512 LV | D +0.6 |
| New York Times/Siena | 14 | 504 LV | D +6.3 |
| Quantus Insights | 14 | 758 LV | D +1.1 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 21 | 1,079 LV | R +0.8 |
| co/efficient (R) | 28 | 799 LV | D +1.1 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 31 | 1,188 LV | R +1.6 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 33 | 1,352 LV | D +4.3 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | 34 | 800 LV | D +5.4 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Peltola | Sullivan | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $32.6M | $11.2M |
| Spent | $29.5M | $8.1M |
| Cash on hand | $3.2M | $5.1M |
| Outside money for | $32.5M | $36.6M |
| Google ads | $2.1M | $5.1M |
- Senate Leadership Fund for Dan Sullivan$12.2M
- North Star for Mary Peltola$11.4M
- No Going Back PAC for Dan Sullivan$9.1M
- Americans for Prosperity Action for Dan Sullivan$6.9M
- Last Frontier PAC against Mary Peltola$5.4M
- WinSenate against Dan Sullivan$3.7M
- Women Vote against Dan Sullivan$3.6M
- Midnight Sun PAC for Mary Peltola$2.5M
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$17.8M
- Women Vote, IE opposing Sullivan, filed Oct 20 Source$926K
- Forward Alaska, IE opposing Sullivan, filed Oct 20 Source$600K
The early vote
Alaska, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 46,204
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +7.0
- Forecast expected
- R +6.5
- Against expectation
- 0.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-25Dana Bash host
Grilled Attorney General Todd Blanche on State of the Union over the Justice Department suit to block certification of Alaska's Senate race if Dan Sullivan loses, asking what crime is alleged. Source
- 2026-10-25Chris Christie commentator, leans R
Called the Justice Department's lawsuit over the Alaska Senate race a dirty trick. Source
- 2026-10-22Harry Enten analyst
On Anderson Cooper 360 he said polling in the Alaska Senate race is tilting toward Democrats. Source
- 2026-10-22Robby Soave commentator, leans other
Predicted in Reason that Republicans will lose the Alaska Senate seat. Source
- 2026-10-21Harry Enten analyst
Listed Alaska as a toss up Senate race where Democrats lead by 3, and warned Democrats to trust no one as GOP has beaten polls in Trump states. Source
- 2026-10-20Karl Rove commentator, leans R
Said he worries about Alaska for Dan Sullivan. Source
- 2026-10-20David Axelrod commentator, leans D
Called Alaska a coin flip, noting Mary Peltola led the first round. Source
- 2026-10-15Mark Halperin reporter
Hosted a 2WAY panel where Hans Nichols and Eliana Johnson named Alaska, Texas and Ohio as the Senate seats most likely to flip. Source
- 2026-10-15Ben Meiselas podcaster, leans D
Interviewed Democrat Mary Peltola about her challenge to Sen. Dan Sullivan. Source
- 2026-10-06Larry Sabato analyst
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Alaska Senate race from Toss-up to Lean Democratic, a projected Democratic pickup. Source
- 2026-10-02Ruthless Podcast hosts podcaster, leans R
Discussed Mary Peltola's Alaska focused campaign messaging alongside Talarico controversies. Source
- 2026-08-18Nate Silver analyst
His polling average showed Mary Peltola slightly ahead of Dan Sullivan, 48.1% to 46.6%. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-13Donald Trump rally in Wasilla
Menard Center rally boosting Sullivan; also endorsed Wilson. Source
- 2026-10-13Dan S. Sullivan rally in Wasilla
Sullivan spoke at President Trump's rally at the Menard Sports Center and urged Mat Su voters to turn out. Source
- 2026-10-05JD Vance rally in Fairbanks
Airport hangar rally attacking Democrat Mary Peltola. Source
- 2026-10-05Dan S. Sullivan rally in Fairbanks
Sullivan spoke with Vice President JD Vance, Rep. Nick Begich and Gov. Mike Dunleavy at a hangar rally at Fairbanks International Airport and criticized Mary Peltola's energy record. Source