2026 forecast

Georgia Senate forecast

Jon Ossoff vs Mike Collins. The model has Ossoff ahead by 10.7 points, winning 99 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Likely DModel D +10.7Polls D +10.7Updated October 13, 2026

159 counties

D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

10,000 sims

80 percent of simulations fall between D +16.4 and D +5.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Pollster	Sample	Age	Margin
OnPoint average	LOWESS Election Day projection		D +10.7
Trafalgar Group (R)	1,090 LV	5d	D +9.2
Wedgewood Polls	600 LV	10d	D +10.7
Big Data Poll (R)	678 LV	20d	D +12.4
Big Data Poll	678 LV	20d	D +10.8
InsiderAdvantage	1,200 LV	20d	D +8.0
YouGov	3,303 LV	25d	D +9.1
Quantus Insights	645 LV	27d	D +5.8
Rasmussen Reports	1,019 LV	29d	D +8.5
Trafalgar Group (R)	1,091 LV	31d	D +7.2
InsiderAdvantage (R)	800 LV	57d	D +8.7
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)	1,060 LV	89d	D +10.4
Wick	1,175 LV	105d	D +4.4
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)	1,002 RV	108d	D +11.3
Quantus Insights	624 RV	396d	D +1.7
TIPP Insights	2,956 RV	438d	R +0.9
Cygnal (R)	800 RV	514d	D +4.6
Trafalgar Group (R)	1,426 RV	534d	D +6.4
WPA Intelligence (R)	500 RV	636d	D +11.6

model crosstabs

Group	Share	Ossoff	Collins
GenderMen	47%	50.6	48.0
Women	53%	58.3	40.4
Age18 to 29	15%	56.4	42.2
30 to 44	23%	54.4	44.3
45 to 64	35%	54.5	44.2
65+	27%	54.3	44.5
RaceWhite	58%	35.9	62.8
Black	32%	85.1	13.7
Latino	5%	59.7	39.0
Asian and other	6%	72.6	25.9
Race and genderWhite men	27%	30.4	68.3
White women	31%	40.6	58.1
Black men	15%	81.3	17.5
Black women	17%	88.3	10.5
Latino men	3%	58.9	39.7
Latino women	3%	60.5	38.2
All other races	6%	72.6	25.9