How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Georgia Governor
Keisha Lance Bottoms vs Rick Jackson
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2518
Raised $28.9M against $130.0M for Rick Jackson.
- Cash weight 2015
$770K in the bank against $4.3M for Rick Jackson.
- National tide weight 1564
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.42 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 5.9 points of that tide, a tailwind for Keisha Lance Bottoms.
- Activity weight 1025
8 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $770K against $4.3M.
- Money weight 2582
Raised $130.0M against $28.9M for Keisha Lance Bottoms.
- Cash weight 2085
$4.3M in the bank against $770K for Keisha Lance Bottoms.
- National tide weight 1536
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.42 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 5.9 points of that tide, a headwind for Rick Jackson.
- Activity weight 1025
9 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- −6 Contested items in the watchdog file. 3 allegations on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Keisha Lance Bottoms leads by 2.1 in the forecast and wins 67% of simulations. The cushion is about 98,576 votes; a one point swing is about 23,359 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +4.7 and D +8.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +0.3. Your best recent poll is Echelon Insights for NetChoice at D +0.7; your worst is ActiVote at R +3.0. 9 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Fulton, a projected net 243,462 votes; DeKalb, a projected net 240,145 votes; Clayton, a projected net 84,963 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Houston, R +6.5, 1.5% of the vote; Fayette, R +0.8, 1.4% of the vote; Lowndes, R +11.3, 0.9% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Keisha Lance Bottoms runs furthest behind in Forsyth, Hall, Cherokee. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 69% of voters, 51 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.47 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 55 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.05 points; Voters without a degree, 60% of voters, 49 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Keisha Lance Bottoms: Immigration voters 19 to 80, Small counties 29 to 70, White voters 36 to 62. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$770K cash against $4.3M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Rick Jackson's strongest asset
Cash: $4.3M in the bank against $770K for Keisha Lance Bottoms.
- Close the gap
Rick Jackson trails by 2.1 and wins 33% of simulations. Closing it takes about 49,288 voters switching sides, or 98,576 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +8.8 and R +4.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +0.3. Your best recent poll is ActiVote at R +3.0; your worst is Echelon Insights for NetChoice at D +0.7. 9 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Cherokee, a projected net 55,400 votes; Forsyth, a projected net 44,750 votes; Hall, a projected net 40,127 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Houston, R +6.5, 1.5% of the vote; Fayette, R +0.8, 1.4% of the vote; Lowndes, R +11.3, 0.9% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Rick Jackson runs furthest behind in Clayton, Muscogee, DeKalb. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 69% of voters, 48 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.47 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 44 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.05 points; Voters without a degree, 60% of voters, 49 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Rick Jackson: Black voters 20 to 79, Large counties 29 to 69, Independents 33 to 64. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$4.3M cash against $770K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Keisha Lance Bottoms's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Bottoms
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulton | D +49.8 | 10.5% | +243,462 |
| DeKalb | D +70.6 | 7.3% | +240,145 |
| Clayton | D +77.4 | 2.3% | +84,963 |
| Gwinnett | D +21.0 | 7.8% | +76,051 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | R +6.5 | 1.5% | -4,652 |
| Fayette | R +0.8 | 1.4% | -493 |
| Lowndes | R +11.3 | 0.9% | -4,969 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forsyth | R +38.0 | 2.5% | -44,750 |
| Hall | R +46.2 | 1.9% | -40,127 |
| Cherokee | R +40.2 | 2.9% | -55,400 |
The coalition
Bottoms against Jackson among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202469% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.5
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters without a degree60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Women51% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties22% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.1
- White voters62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- The Democratic Governors Association is her financial base. It gave more than $1.6 million to her leadership committee in June and July, per the [AJC]( Her campaign then said the DGA gave $11.5 million of the $23.2 million she raised from August 1 to October 20, per the [AJC]( The October figures are provisional until the filing lands.
- Billionaire Democrats arrived late. JB Pritzker gave $1 million to her leadership fund after the October 20 cutoff, and Michael Bloomberg gave at least $1 million, per the [AJC on October 21](
Top donor blocs: Party and leadership, Billionaire megadonor, Real estate
- Rick Jackson is mostly his own donor. He spent more than $108 million of his own fortune to win the nomination through June 2026, per the [AJC]( and his campaign accounts had raised roughly $130 million through July 31, much of it his own money, per the [AJC on October 21]( Analysts expect about $200 million by Election Day. That is an estimate, not a filing.
- His own company is the largest interest in the file. Jackson Healthcare subsidiaries have received more than $1 billion in payments from Georgia agencies since 2020 and more than $56 million in 2025 alone from Behavioral Health, Community Health and Corrections, per the [AJC on March 5, 2026]( The governor appoints the people who run those agencies.
Top donor blocs: Self funding, Party and leadership, Health care and pharma
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +2.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +8.8 and R +4.7
- Polling average
- D +0.3
- Partisan lean
- R +0.7
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 0 | 755 LV | D +0.3 |
| UGA SPIA for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution | 0 | 1,000 LV | R +1.0 |
| ActiVote | 0 | 400 LV | R +3.0 |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 0 | 508 LV | D +0.7 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 2 | 800 LV | D +0.1 |
| Big Data Poll (R) | 22 | 678 LV | D +0.5 |
| Big Data Poll | 22 | 678 LV | R +2.5 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 22 | 1,200 LV | Even |
| YouGov | 27 | 3,299 LV | R +2.8 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 31 | 1,019 LV | R +1.6 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Bottoms | Jackson | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $28.9M | $130.0M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $770K | $4.3M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Georgia, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 1,780,239
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +8.5
- Forecast expected
- D +10.1
- Against expectation
- 1.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-14Chris Hayes host, leans D
Anchored All In live from Atlanta covering the Georgia governor race. Source
- 2026-10-13Mark Halperin reporter
His 2WAY coverage focused on Republican Rick Jackson's absence from a Georgia governor debate and candidates dodging debates. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-28Barack Obama announced in Atlanta
Rally announced; venue not stated. Source
- 2026-10-28Kamala Harris announced in Atlanta
Start of a three day Georgia swing through Oct 30 with voter protection events. Atlanta event Oct 28 alongside Barack Obama. Source
- 2026-10-28Keisha Lance Bottoms announced in Atlanta
United for Georgia Rally with former President Barack Obama and Sen. Jon Ossoff from 4 to 7 p.m., venue to be emailed to registrants. Source
- 2026-10-26Keisha Lance Bottoms event in Alpharetta
Monday meeting with voters during the last week of early voting. Source
- 2026-10-25Keisha Lance Bottoms event in Atlanta
Sunday service at Dream Center Church of Atlanta with Jon Ossoff and Penny Brown Reynolds, urging early in person voting. Source
- 2026-10-24Rick Jackson rally in Perry
Rally with President Donald Trump and Mike Collins at the Guardian Centers, with Jason Aldean in attendance. Source
- 2026-10-23Ted Cruz announced in Locust Grove
Announced 6:30 p.m. Friday rally at the Zipp Hinton hangar in Henry County for the GOP governor nominee. Source
- 2026-10-17Keisha Lance Bottoms rally in Atlanta
Rally with Sen. Jon Ossoff at the Cobb Galleria Centre in Cobb County on the first weekend of early voting, drawing more than 1,500 supporters. Source
- 2026-10-16Donald Trump rally in Dalton
Rally at Dalton Municipal Airport with both GOP nominees. Source
- 2026-10-16Rick Jackson rally in Dalton
Appeared with President Trump and Senate nominee Mike Collins at Trump's Dalton rally. Source
- 2026-10-12Rick Jackson tour stop in Macon
Press event on a one day statewide tour with Gov. Brian Kemp held instead of debating Bottoms, per the AJC's tour plan. Source
- 2026-10-12Rick Jackson tour stop in Columbus
Press event on a one day statewide tour with Gov. Brian Kemp held instead of debating Bottoms, per the AJC's tour plan. Source