How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
South Carolina Senate
Annie Andrews vs Darline Graham
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2592
Raised $20.2M against $1.8M for Darline Graham.
- Cash weight 2094
$4.1M in the bank against $251K for Darline Graham. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1530
Outside groups spent $4.8M helping Annie Andrews and $11.3M helping Darline Graham.
- National tide weight 1577
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.88 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Annie Andrews.
- Activity weight 10100
5 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 2 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $475K in Google political ads this cycle. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- −2 Contested items in the watchdog file. 1 allegation on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
- Money weight 258
Raised $1.8M against $20.2M for Annie Andrews.
- Cash weight 206
$251K in the bank against $4.1M for Annie Andrews. As of 08/05/2026.
- Air cover weight 1570
Outside groups spent $11.3M helping Darline Graham and $4.8M helping Annie Andrews.
- National tide weight 1523
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.88 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Darline Graham.
- Activity weight 1075
6 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $251K against $4.1M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Annie Andrews leads by 0.6 in the forecast and wins 51% of simulations. The cushion is about 11,152 votes; a one point swing is about 10,138 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +7.4 and D +8.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +1.0. Your best recent poll is On Point Polling at D +3.5; your worst is Rasmussen Reports at R +4.5. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Richland, a projected net 85,516 votes; Charleston, a projected net 51,842 votes; Orangeburg, a projected net 14,226 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Greenville, R +2.7, 10.3% of the vote; York, R +0.5, 5.6% of the vote; Berkeley, D +2.1, 4.3% of the vote; Beaufort, D +2.3, 4.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Annie Andrews runs furthest behind in Oconee, Anderson, Pickens. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 76% of voters, 40 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.78 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 48 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.29 points; Voters without a degree, 62% of voters, 48 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.12 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Annie Andrews: Immigration voters 14 to 82, White voters 40 to 55, Incomes $125K and up 41 to 55. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$4.1M cash against $251K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Darline Graham's strongest asset
Activity: 6 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Close the gap
Darline Graham trails by 0.6 and wins 49% of simulations. Closing it takes about 5,576 voters switching sides, or 11,152 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +8.7 and R +7.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +1.0. Your best recent poll is Rasmussen Reports at R +4.5; your worst is On Point Polling at D +3.5. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Horry, a projected net 37,710 votes; Anderson, a projected net 26,194 votes; Lexington, a projected net 20,275 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Greenville, R +2.7, 10.3% of the vote; York, R +0.5, 5.6% of the vote; Berkeley, D +2.1, 4.3% of the vote; Beaufort, D +2.3, 4.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Darline Graham runs furthest behind in Charleston, Orangeburg, Sumter. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 76% of voters, 55 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.78 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 48 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.29 points; Voters without a degree, 62% of voters, 47 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.12 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Darline Graham: Black voters 19 to 76, Independents 17 to 73, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 29 to 66. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$251K cash against $4.1M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Annie Andrews's strongest asset
Activity: 5 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
The map for Andrews
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richland | D +54.8 | 7.7% | +85,516 |
| Charleston | D +28.9 | 8.8% | +51,842 |
| Orangeburg | D +46.4 | 1.5% | +14,226 |
| Sumter | D +26.4 | 1.8% | +9,678 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenville | R +2.7 | 10.3% | -5,637 |
| York | R +0.5 | 5.6% | -613 |
| Berkeley | D +2.1 | 4.3% | +1,832 |
| Beaufort | D +2.3 | 4.2% | +1,937 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oconee | R +38.5 | 1.7% | -12,945 |
| Anderson | R +34.2 | 3.8% | -26,194 |
| Pickens | R +39.5 | 2.4% | -19,186 |
The coalition
Andrews against Graham among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters76% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202466% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters without a degree62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters13% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- White voters76% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Incomes $125K and up13% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message. "I'm a doctor. I'm a mom. I'm not a career politician": health care costs, reversing Medicaid cuts, and cost of living, as an independent voice against an unready appointee. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. Her past advocacy for gender affirming care for minors, which Trump and Graham's camp hit hard; she now says she opposes trans women in female sports and surgery on minors. Source
- Coalition play. Outreach to Republicans and rural voters, with testimonials from lifelong Republicans and praise from Ralph Norman's son Warren; Fresh Start buys focus on the Greenville-Spartanburg and Charlotte markets. Source
- Recent event. Trump's October 5 slur against her, which former GOP Gov. David Beasley called "abhorrent"; she answered that name calling will not lower gas and grocery prices. Source
- Polls. Trafalgar released October 19 has her down 45.6 to 48.6, tied to rising unfavorables; a Pollsmax average of ten surveys has her down 1.7. Source
Top donor blocs: Small donors, Ideological groups
- Main message. Continuity with her brother and loyalty to Trump; she casts Andrews as a radical liberal and socialist who moderated for the race. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. Readiness: her "National security is not my thing" answer, no Social Security plan, and an appointment many see as inherited. Source
- Weak spot in the base. Upstate counties she lost in the primary and runoff, where Trump planned a stop, and a continuing write in drive for Ralph Norman. Source
- Recent event. Trump rally in Clemson on October 21 and SLF money arriving after Cook moved the race to Lean Republican. Source
- Polls. Trafalgar released October 19: Graham 48.6, Andrews 45.6; InsiderAdvantage September 28 to 29: 46 to 45. Source
Top donor blocs: Party and leadership, Billionaire megadonor, Trump world
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +0.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +8.7 and R +7.4
- Polling average
- D +1.0
- Partisan lean
- R +16.6
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 0 | 1,095 LV | R +1.7 |
| On Point Polling | 0 | 294 LV | D +3.5 |
| Impact Research (D) | 0 | 800 LV | R +0.8 |
| Targoz Market Research for the South Carolina Policy Council | 0 | 895 LV | D +1.3 |
| New York Times/Siena | 0 | 600 LV | R +0.7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7 | 837 LV | R +4.5 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 16 | 1,200 LV | D +1.0 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 20 | 1,087 LV | Even |
| Rasmussen Reports | 31 | 1,006 LV | R +5.5 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 36 | 1,200 LV | R +0.1 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Andrews | Graham | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $20.2M | $1.8M |
| Spent | $6.7M | $95K |
| Cash on hand | $4.1M | $251K |
| Outside money for | $4.8M | $11.3M |
| Google ads | $475K | $0 |
- Senate Leadership Fund against Annie Andrews$3.8M
- Security Is Strength PAC for Lindsey Graham$3.0M
- Fresh Start SC PAC against Lindsey Graham$2.6M
- American Mission for Lindsey Graham$1.6M
- Building the Future for Lindsey Graham$1.3M
- New Deal for All against Lindsey Graham$1.2M
- AB PAC for Annie Andrews$631K
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$3.1M
- Senate Leadership Fund, new IE filings Oct 21 to 22 Source$411K
The early vote
South Carolina, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 389,672
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +20.9
- Forecast expected
- R +20.3
- Against expectation
- 0.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-27John Harwood commentator, leans D
Called Sen. Tim Scott such a tool after Scott used a slur about Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews on The Charlie Kirk Show. Source
- 2026-10-20Karl Rove commentator, leans R
Called South Carolina a hope for Democrats but not real. Source
- 2026-10-20Nathan Gonzales analyst
Inside Elections moved the South Carolina Senate race against Darline Graham from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Source
- 2026-10-14Brian Tyler Cohen podcaster, leans D
Interviewed Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews. Source
- 2026-10-06Larry Sabato analyst
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the South Carolina Senate race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Source
- 2026-10-06Remy Numa analyst
Fox News Power Rankings moved South Carolina Senate from Solid R to Likely R. Source
- 2026-08-25Laura Ingraham host, leans R
Attacked Democratic nominee Dr. Annie Andrews ahead of the Republican Senate runoff, saying under the white coat is a left wing agenda. Source
- 2026-08-25Sean Spicer host, leans R
Predicted on The Huddle that Ralph Norman would come out ahead of Sen. Darline Graham in the GOP primary. Source
- 2026-08-25Tim Miller analyst, leans D
Called Darline Graham a total empty vessel and said her primary win is exactly what Trump wants. Source
- 2026-08-23Kristen Welker host
Asked Sen. Tim Scott on Meet the Press whether Darline Graham is qualified to be a senator. Source
- 2026-08-21Erin Burnett host
On OutFront called out Sean Hannity for giving Sen. Darline Graham cover on her Taiwan debate gaffe after mocking a similar AOC answer. Source
- 2026-08-19Sean Hannity host, leans R
Interviewed Sen. Darline Graham and gave her a chance to defend her Taiwan debate answer. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-29Donald Trump announced in Rock Hill
Announced Thursday rally for SC GOP candidates, Trump to speak at 12:30 p.m., venue not named, his second SC visit in days. Source
- 2026-10-21Donald Trump rally in Pendleton
Rally at Clemson's T. Ed Garrison Arena. Source
- 2026-10-21Scott Bessent rally in Pendleton
Bessent, a South Carolina native, addressed the Trump rally crowd and urged GOP turnout. Source
- 2026-10-21Darline Graham rally in Pendleton
Graham spoke at President Trump's Wednesday night rally, telling supporters she will fight for the state as a proud conservative Christian. Source
- 2026-10-17Annie Andrews rally in North Charleston
Andrews began her Saturday with a rally in North Charleston, joined on the tour by Sen. Raphael Warnock and Rep. Jermaine Johnson. Source
- 2026-10-17Annie Andrews rally in Florence
Andrews held a rally in Florence later the same day, a stop the SC Daily Gazette said included Warnock and Johnson. Source
- 2026-10-17Darline Graham event in Mount Pleasant
Graham spoke to supporters about her Senate work at a Saturday campaign event. Source
- 2026-10-17Darline Graham tour stop in Summerville
Graham made a later Saturday campaign stop in Summerville. Source
- 2026-10-16Annie Andrews rally in Columbia
Rally at Senate's End ahead of early voting with Sen. Raphael Warnock and Democratic governor nominee Rep. Jermaine Johnson. Source
- 2026-10-10JB Pritzker tour stop in Charleston, Manning, Columbia
Statewide swing that ended with a keynote at the state NAACP convention. Source
- 2026-10-09Darline Graham event in Charleston
Campaign fundraiser at Hall's Chophouse with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Sen. Tim Scott, after which Graham spoke to reporters. Source
- 2026-10-06Annie Andrews event in Columbia
Andrews spoke at a campaign stop at the Columbia Bethlehem Community Center. Source