How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
New Hampshire Governor
Cinde Warmington vs Kelly Ayotte
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Cash weight 2013
$400K in the bank against $2.6M for Kelly Ayotte.
- National tide weight 1579
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.93 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Cinde Warmington.
- Activity weight 1025
6 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $400K against $2.6M.
- Cash weight 2087
$2.6M in the bank against $400K for Cinde Warmington.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.93 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Kelly Ayotte.
- Activity weight 1025
2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Cinde Warmington trails by 8.6 and wins 8% of simulations. Closing it takes about 29,707 voters switching sides, or 59,414 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +16.8 and R +0.7. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +10.2. Your best recent poll is University of New Hampshire at R +3.7; your worst is National Public Affairs at R +15.1. 6 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Grafton, a projected net 7,594 votes; Cheshire, a projected net 3,234 votes; Strafford, a projected net 2,572 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Hillsborough, R +10.4, 28.3% of the vote; Merrimack, R +5.5, 11.3% of the vote; Strafford, D +4.0, 9.3% of the vote; Cheshire, D +8.5, 5.5% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Cinde Warmington runs furthest behind in Belknap, Carroll, Rockingham. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 94% of voters, 43 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.69 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 73% of voters, 46 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.66 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 58% of voters, 45 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.91 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Cinde Warmington: Immigration voters 13 to 84, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 34 to 63, New and irregular voters 38 to 59. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$400K cash against $2.6M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Kelly Ayotte's strongest asset
Cash: $2.6M in the bank against $400K for Cinde Warmington.
- Protect the lead
Kelly Ayotte leads by 8.6 in the forecast and wins 92% of simulations. The cushion is about 59,414 votes; a one point swing is about 3,446 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +0.7 and R +16.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +10.2. Your best recent poll is National Public Affairs at R +15.1; your worst is University of New Hampshire at R +3.7. 6 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Rockingham, a projected net 26,432 votes; Hillsborough, a projected net 20,316 votes; Belknap, a projected net 11,060 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Hillsborough, R +10.4, 28.3% of the vote; Merrimack, R +5.5, 11.3% of the vote; Strafford, D +4.0, 9.3% of the vote; Cheshire, D +8.5, 5.5% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Kelly Ayotte runs furthest behind in Cheshire, Grafton, Strafford. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 94% of voters, 54 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.69 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 73% of voters, 51 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.66 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 58% of voters, 52 to 45, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.91 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Kelly Ayotte: Corruption voters 34 to 64, Health care and Social Security voters 34 to 63, Women 48 to 49. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.6M cash against $400K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Cinde Warmington's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Warmington
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grafton | D +16.0 | 6.9% | +7,594 |
| Cheshire | D +8.5 | 5.5% | +3,234 |
| Strafford | D +4.0 | 9.3% | +2,572 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough | R +10.4 | 28.3% | -20,316 |
| Merrimack | R +5.5 | 11.3% | -4,302 |
| Strafford | D +4.0 | 9.3% | +2,572 |
| Cheshire | D +8.5 | 5.5% | +3,234 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belknap | R +33.0 | 4.9% | -11,060 |
| Carroll | R +16.7 | 4.3% | -4,894 |
| Rockingham | R +15.7 | 24.4% | -26,432 |
The coalition
Warmington against Ayotte among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters94% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.7
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202473% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.7
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford58% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Voters without a degree56% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.8
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- 2024 nonvoters and third party voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- New and irregular voters6% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.3
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +8.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +0.7 and R +16.8
- Polling average
- R +10.2
- Partisan lean
- D +4.3
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm College | 0 | 1,672 LV | R +8.3 |
| National Public Affairs | 3 | 600 LV | R +15.1 |
| YouGov | 10 | 1,520 LV | R +9.8 |
| Saint Anselm College for AARP | 16 | 1,042 LV | R +7.4 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 23 | 613 LV | R +11.7 |
| University of New Hampshire | 24 | 1,418 LV | R +3.7 |
| co/efficient (R) | 34 | 958 LV | R +17.3 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Warmington | Ayotte | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | n/a | $6.4M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $400K | $2.6M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
StatewideNo early vote data for New Hampshire yet.
Media watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-22Cinde Warmington debate in Manchester
Live audience candidate forum at Harpoon at Queen City Center hosted by NHPR and the Granite State News Collaborative. Source
- 2026-10-22Kelly Ayotte debate in Manchester
Live audience candidate forum at Harpoon at Queen City Center hosted by NHPR and the Granite State News Collaborative. Source
- 2026-10-20Cinde Warmington debate in Goffstown
Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce debate at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College. Source
- 2026-10-20Kelly Ayotte debate in Goffstown
Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce debate at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College. Source
- 2026-10-17Gavin Newsom tour stop in Exeter
Voter mobilization in Exeter, canvass launch in Nashua and an evening event with Shaheen. Date inferred. Source
- 2026-10-17Cinde Warmington event in Exeter
Appeared with California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Source
- 2026-10-12Cinde Warmington event in Hanover
Took questions on cost of living, energy and education at Dartmouth's Rockefeller Center speaker series. Source
- 2026-10-02Pete Buttigieg rally in Rochester
Registration rally; location sent to registrants in advance. Source