How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
New Hampshire Senate
Chris Pappas vs John E. Sununu
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2580
Raised $21.5M against $5.2M for John E. Sununu.
- Cash weight 2063
$4.3M in the bank against $2.5M for John E. Sununu. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1534
Outside groups spent $16.3M helping Chris Pappas and $31.6M helping John E. Sununu.
- National tide weight 1575
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.77 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 10.8 points of that tide, a tailwind for Chris Pappas.
- Activity weight 1075
11 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $1.1M in Google political ads this cycle.
- −2 Contested items in the watchdog file. 1 allegation on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
- Money weight 2520
Raised $5.2M against $21.5M for Chris Pappas.
- Cash weight 2037
$2.5M in the bank against $4.3M for Chris Pappas. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1566
Outside groups spent $31.6M helping John E. Sununu and $16.3M helping Chris Pappas.
- National tide weight 1525
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.77 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 10.8 points of that tide, a headwind for John E. Sununu.
- Activity weight 1075
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $294K in Google political ads this cycle.
- −2 Contested items in the watchdog file. 1 allegation on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Chris Pappas leads by 10.2 in the forecast and wins 94% of simulations. The cushion is about 70,160 votes; a one point swing is about 3,446 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +2.0 and D +18.6. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +7.2. Your best recent poll is InsiderAdvantage (R) at D +9.9; your worst is New York Times/Siena University at D +4.3. 9 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Hillsborough, a projected net 18,125 votes; Strafford, a projected net 14,060 votes; Grafton, a projected net 13,873 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Hillsborough, D +9.3, 28.3% of the vote; Rockingham, D +2.6, 24.4% of the vote; Belknap, R +9.4, 4.9% of the vote; Carroll, D +4.2, 4.3% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Chris Pappas runs furthest behind in Belknap, Rockingham, Carroll. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 94% of voters, 52 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.69 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 73% of voters, 54 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.67 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 57 to 39, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.07 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Chris Pappas: Immigration voters 29 to 67, Voters who can afford daily costs 47 to 49, Men 48 to 49. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$4.3M cash against $2.5M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- John E. Sununu's strongest asset
Activity: 3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Close the gap
John E. Sununu trails by 10.2 and wins 6% of simulations. Closing it takes about 35,080 voters switching sides, or 70,160 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +18.6 and D +2.0. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +7.2. Your best recent poll is New York Times/Siena University at D +4.3; your worst is InsiderAdvantage (R) at D +9.9. 9 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Belknap, a projected net 3,189 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Hillsborough, D +9.3, 28.3% of the vote; Rockingham, D +2.6, 24.4% of the vote; Belknap, R +9.4, 4.9% of the vote; Carroll, D +4.2, 4.3% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, John E. Sununu runs furthest behind in Coos, Cheshire, Strafford. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 94% of voters, 44 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.69 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 73% of voters, 43 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.67 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 61% of voters, 39 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.07 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for John E. Sununu: Health care and Social Security voters 26 to 70, Corruption voters 29 to 67, Moderates 32 to 64. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.5M cash against $4.3M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Chris Pappas's strongest asset
Money: Raised $21.5M against $5.2M for John E. Sununu.
- An opening
a Washington insider in the pocket of lobbyists who took the same money he now attacks, plus the partner lobbying ad and the 68 tax increases claim, which PolitiFact rated False. Source
The map for Pappas
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough | D +9.3 | 28.3% | +18,125 |
| Strafford | D +22.0 | 9.3% | +14,060 |
| Grafton | D +29.3 | 6.9% | +13,873 |
| Merrimack | D +15.2 | 11.3% | +11,810 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough | D +9.3 | 28.3% | +18,125 |
| Rockingham | D +2.6 | 24.4% | +4,337 |
| Belknap | R +9.4 | 4.9% | -3,189 |
| Carroll | D +4.2 | 4.3% | +1,226 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belknap | R +9.4 | 4.9% | -3,189 |
| Rockingham | D +2.6 | 24.4% | +4,337 |
| Carroll | D +4.2 | 4.3% | +1,226 |
The coalition
Pappas against Sununu among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters94% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.7
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202473% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.7
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters without a degree56% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.8
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Voters who can afford daily costs39% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
- Men48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message. lower costs, end the Iran war and tariff taxes, and get money out of politics. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. a Washington insider in the pocket of lobbyists who took the same money he now attacks, plus the partner lobbying ad and the 68 tax increases claim, which PolitiFact rated False. Source
- Strongest coalition. Democrats coalesced quickly, 75 percent satisfied with him as nominee per TIME; volunteers had contacted close to half a million voters by October 21. Source
- Notable recent event. national Democrats Newsom, Harris, Warnock and Buttigieg came in for him in October; Sununu called the Newsom visit irrelevant to New Hampshire. Source
- Money gap. outside spending favors Sununu $36.1M to $19.3M in the general election, through October 23. Source
Top donor blocs: Small donors, Party and leadership, Pro-Israel
- Main message. a focused, New Hampshire first, town to town campaign that avoids partisanship and stresses who he is as a leader. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. fifteen years cashing in as a Washington lobbyist for corporate interests, and being a rubber stamp for Trump after endorsing the One Big Beautiful Bill. Source
- Strongest coalition. Republicans, 85 percent satisfied with him, and independents who give him a 10 point edge on character, per TIME. Source
- Ground game. outside groups and the RNC reportedly field about 1,000 paid canvassers for him, including AFP, America PAC, Sentinel Action and Turning Point. Source
- Notable recent event. NHPR cancelled its Senate forum after Sununu declined citing his schedule, leaving one more debate. Source
Top donor blocs: Billionaire megadonor, Trump world, Wall Street and banking
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +10.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +18.6 and D +2.0
- Polling average
- D +7.2
- Partisan lean
- D +4.3
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm College | 0 | 1,672 LV | D +6.7 |
| National Public Affairs | 3 | 600 LV | D +8.0 |
| YouGov | 10 | 1,520 LV | D +7.1 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 11 | 979 LV | D +6.4 |
| Saint Anselm College for AARP | 16 | 1,042 LV | D +6.6 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 18 | 1,082 LV | D +8.1 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 23 | 613 LV | D +4.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 24 | 1,418 LV | D +8.3 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 28 | 1,200 LV | D +9.9 |
| co/efficient (R) | 34 | 958 LV | D +4.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 35 | 1,000 LV | D +12.2 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Pappas | Sununu | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $21.5M | $5.2M |
| Spent | $11.5M | $2.8M |
| Cash on hand | $4.3M | $2.5M |
| Outside money for | $16.3M | $31.6M |
| Google ads | $1.1M | $294K |
- WinSenate against John E. Sununu$13.8M
- No Going Back PAC against Chris Pappas$11.8M
- Senate Leadership Fund against Chris Pappas$9.3M
- Americans for Prosperity Action for John E. Sununu$7.6M
- The Sentinel Action Fund against Chris Pappas$1.2M
- LCV Victory Fund against John E. Sununu$1.0M
- America PAC against Chris Pappas$948K
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$15.8M
The early vote
StatewideNo early vote data for New Hampshire yet.
Media watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20Dave Wasserman analyst
Said he is skeptical the Sununu versus Pappas Senate race is truly competitive. Source
- 2026-10-20Nathan Gonzales analyst
Inside Elections moved the open New Hampshire Senate race from Toss Up to Tilt Democratic. Source
- 2026-07 to 2026-10Turning Point Action activist, leans R
Group now led by Erika Kirk's organization runs a full time ballot chase field operation in New Hampshire's Senate race featuring Republican John E. Sununu. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-24Kamala Harris announced in Portsmouth
Fix: cities now named. Announced Saturday visit to greet supporters in Portsmouth and join a live reproductive rights podcast recording in Manchester. Venues not given, and the day for Portsmouth was not stated. Source
- 2026-10-24Kamala Harris announced in Manchester
Fix: cities now named. Announced Saturday visit to greet supporters in Portsmouth and join a live reproductive rights podcast recording in Manchester. Venues not given, and the day for Portsmouth was not stated. Source
- 2026-10-17Gavin Newsom tour stop in Exeter
Voter mobilization in Exeter, canvass launch in Nashua and an evening event with Shaheen. Date inferred. Source
- 2026-10-17Chris Pappas event in Nashua
Morning canvass with California Gov. Gavin Newsom and governor nominee Cinde Warmington, per the published schedule. Source
- 2026-10-17Chris Pappas rally in Exeter
Afternoon Democratic rally with California Gov. Gavin Newsom and governor nominee Cinde Warmington. Source
- 2026-10-16John E. Sununu event in Swanzey
Visited Keene Dillant Hopkins Airport and talked with about half a dozen airport workers. Source
- 2026-10-14Chris Pappas debate in Salem
Candidate forum hosted by the Southern New Hampshire Chamber of Commerce. Source
- 2026-10-14John E. Sununu debate in Salem
Candidate forum hosted by the Southern New Hampshire Chamber of Commerce. Source
- 2026-10-13Chris Pappas debate in North Conway
First Senate debate, hosted by the Mount Washington Valley Economic Council. Source
- 2026-10-13John E. Sununu debate in North Conway
First Senate debate, hosted by the Mount Washington Valley Economic Council. Source
- 2026-10-06Chris Pappas event in Nashua
Appeared with Sen. Raphael Warnock at a Democratic campaign field office. Source
- 2026-10-06Chris Pappas event in Swanzey
Opened a campaign office on Monadnock Highway with Sen. Raphael Warnock, party chair Ray Buckley and Keene Mayor Jay Kahn. Source