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Oregon Senate
Jeff Merkley vs David Brock Smith
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2595
Raised $5.2M against $291K for David Brock Smith.
- Cash weight 2099
$6.8M in the bank against $50K for David Brock Smith. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 1570
Registered Democrats cast 43% of the 806,727 ballots in Oregon so far, against 31% for the other party. That is 4.6 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.01 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.1 points of that tide, a tailwind for Jeff Merkley.
- Money weight 255
Raised $291K against $5.2M for Jeff Merkley.
- Cash weight 201
$50K in the bank against $6.8M for Jeff Merkley. As of 09/30/2026.
- Early vote weight 1530
Registered Republicans cast 31% of the 806,727 ballots in Oregon so far, against 43% for the other party. That is 4.6 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.01 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.1 points of that tide, a headwind for David Brock Smith.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $50K against $6.8M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Jeff Merkley leads by 24.4 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 501,044 votes; a one point swing is about 10,276 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +15.8 and D +32.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Multnomah, a projected net 282,582 votes; Washington, a projected net 125,217 votes; Lane, a projected net 65,038 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Marion, D +7.1, 6.9% of the vote; Jackson, D +4.0, 5.4% of the vote; Yamhill, D +1.9, 2.5% of the vote; Polk, D +3.4, 2.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Jeff Merkley runs furthest behind in Douglas, Coos, Umatilla. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 86% of voters, 58 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.29 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 75% of voters, 60 to 36, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.75 points; Voters without a degree, 59% of voters, 56 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.94 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Jeff Merkley: Immigration voters 20 to 77, Small counties 44 to 52, Midsize counties 47 to 49. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$6.8M cash against $50K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 43% of the 806,727 ballots in Oregon so far, against 31% for the other party. That is 4.6 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- David Brock Smith's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 31% of the 806,727 ballots in Oregon so far, against 43% for the other party.
- Close the gap
David Brock Smith trails by 24.4 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 250,522 voters switching sides, or 501,044 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +32.8 and D +15.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Douglas, a projected net 19,535 votes; Klamath, a projected net 11,948 votes; Linn, a projected net 11,461 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Marion, D +7.1, 6.9% of the vote; Jackson, D +4.0, 5.4% of the vote; Yamhill, D +1.9, 2.5% of the vote; Polk, D +3.4, 2.1% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, David Brock Smith runs furthest behind in Deschutes, Washington, Lincoln. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 86% of voters, 38 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.29 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 75% of voters, 36 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.75 points; Voters without a degree, 59% of voters, 40 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.94 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for David Brock Smith: Asian and other voters 19 to 77, Health care and Social Security voters 22 to 75, Moderates 26 to 69. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$50K cash against $6.8M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 31% of the 806,727 ballots in Oregon so far, against 43% for the other party. That is 4.6 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Jeff Merkley's strongest asset
Cash: $6.8M in the bank against $50K for David Brock Smith.
The map for Merkley
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Multnomah | D +72.0 | 19.1% | +282,582 |
| Washington | D +46.1 | 13.2% | +125,217 |
| Lane | D +33.7 | 9.4% | +65,038 |
| Clackamas | D +20.5 | 10.7% | +44,974 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marion | D +7.1 | 6.9% | +10,039 |
| Jackson | D +4.0 | 5.4% | +4,403 |
| Yamhill | D +1.9 | 2.5% | +996 |
| Polk | D +3.4 | 2.1% | +1,469 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas | R +34.6 | 2.7% | -19,535 |
| Coos | R +14.7 | 1.6% | -4,863 |
| Umatilla | R +32.5 | 1.4% | -9,295 |
The coalition
Merkley against Smith among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters86% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.3
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202475% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Voters without a degree59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Men47% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.3
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Midsize counties30% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.5
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +24.4
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +32.8 and D +15.8
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- D +16.4
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Merkley | Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $5.2M | $291K |
| Spent | $2.7M | $241K |
| Cash on hand | $6.8M | $50K |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $0 | $0 |
The early vote
Oregon, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 806,727
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +12.8
- Forecast expected
- D +8.2
- Against expectation
- 4.6 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.