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Senate · Montana · open seat

Montana Senate

Seth Bodnar, independent vs Kurt Alme

ForecastR +20.1

Independent<1%

Republican>99%

RatingSafe R

Full forecast

Brief me as

Neutral view. Pick a side and the War Room briefs you as that campaign's operative.

Vital signs

Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity

IndependentSeth BodnarStable

Money weight 2562
Raised $4.7M against $2.9M for Kurt Alme.
Cash weight 2041
$999K in the bank against $1.5M for Kurt Alme. As of 06/30/2026.
Air cover weight 1569
Outside groups spent $11.7M helping Seth Bodnar and $5.2M helping Kurt Alme.
National tide weight 1584
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.19 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 16.7 points of that tide, a tailwind for Seth Bodnar.
Activity weight 1025
$23K in Google political ads this cycle.

RepublicanKurt AlmeCritical

Money weight 2538
Raised $2.9M against $4.7M for Seth Bodnar.
Cash weight 2059
$1.5M in the bank against $999K for Seth Bodnar. As of 06/30/2026.
Air cover weight 1531
Outside groups spent $5.2M helping Kurt Alme and $11.7M helping Seth Bodnar.
National tide weight 1516
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.19 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 16.7 points of that tide, a headwind for Kurt Alme.
Activity weight 1050
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $104K in Google political ads this cycle.

How each side wins

From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots

If you work for Seth Bodnar

Close the gap
Seth Bodnar trails by 20.1 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 56,786 voters switching sides, or 113,573 more net votes from new turnout.
The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +26.4 and R +13.7. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
The polls
The polls page average is D +3.0. Your best recent poll is Concord Public Opinion Partners for Bodnar (D) at D +12.3; your worst is American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local at D +0.7. 6 polls in the last 30 days.
Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Missoula, a projected net 17,254 votes; Gallatin, a projected net 3,599 votes; Silver Bow, a projected net 2,798 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Gallatin, D +5.5, 11.5% of the vote; Lewis and Clark, R +0.3, 7.0% of the vote; Park, R +2.5, 1.9% of the vote; Deer Lodge, D +11.6, 0.9% of the vote.
Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Seth Bodnar runs furthest behind in Fergus, Sanders, Madison. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 93% of voters, 28 to 20, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.63 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 72% of voters, 28 to 20, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.58 points; Midsize counties, 61% of voters, 32 to 23, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.06 points.
Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Seth Bodnar: Immigration voters 9 to 7, Voters who can afford daily costs 23 to 17, Small counties 23 to 17. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
The money
$999K cash against $1.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
Kurt Alme's strongest asset
Cash: $1.5M in the bank against $999K for Seth Bodnar.

If you work for Kurt Alme

Protect the lead
Kurt Alme leads by 20.1 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 113,573 votes; a one point swing is about 2,827 voters changing sides.
The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +13.7 and R +26.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
The polls
The polls page average is D +3.0. Your best recent poll is American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local at D +0.7; your worst is Concord Public Opinion Partners for Bodnar (D) at D +12.3. 6 polls in the last 30 days.
Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Flathead, a projected net 20,190 votes; Yellowstone, a projected net 20,005 votes; Ravalli, a projected net 12,105 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Gallatin, D +5.5, 11.5% of the vote; Lewis and Clark, R +0.3, 7.0% of the vote; Park, R +2.5, 1.9% of the vote; Deer Lodge, D +11.6, 0.9% of the vote.
Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Kurt Alme runs furthest behind in Silver Bow, Lewis and Clark, Park. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 93% of voters, 20 to 28, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.63 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 72% of voters, 20 to 28, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.58 points; Midsize counties, 61% of voters, 23 to 32, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.06 points.
Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Kurt Alme: Independents 31 to 43, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 30 to 41, Health care and Social Security voters 29 to 40. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
The money
$1.5M cash against $999K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
Seth Bodnar's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.

The map for Bodnar

County projections from the forecast

Vote banksWhere the biggest net margins come from

County	Forecast	Vote share	Net D
Missoula	I +25.7	11.9%	+17,254
Gallatin	I +5.5	11.5%	+3,599
Silver Bow	I +16.0	3.1%	+2,798
Glacier	I +25.6	0.8%	+1,220

BattlegroundsLarge counties within 12 points

County	Forecast	Vote share	Net D
Gallatin	I +5.5	11.5%	+3,599
Lewis and Clark	R +0.3	7%	-123
Park	R +2.5	1.9%	-258
Deer Lodge	I +11.6	0.9%	+571

Behind the 2024 mapRunning furthest behind the last presidential vote

County	Forecast	Vote share	Net D
Fergus	R +61.2	1.1%	-3,840
Sanders	R +63.2	1.3%	-4,804
Madison	R +52.3	1%	-2,987

The coalition

Bodnar against Alme among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates

Swing groups

White voters93% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.6
2820
Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202472% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.6
2820
Midsize counties61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
3223
Voters without a degree60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
2820

Weakest groups

Immigration voters14% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
97
Voters who can afford daily costs43% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.1
2317
Small counties39% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
2317

BodnarAlme

Scouting report

From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source

Seth Bodnar

No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.

Kurt Alme

No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.

The forecast

Margin over recent runs

Now: R +20.1
8 in 10 land between: R +13.7 and R +26.4
Polling average: I +3.0
Partisan lean: R +19.1

Recent polls

Last 45 days

Pollster	Days ago	Sample	Result
Quantus Insights	0	667 LV	I +7.2
Aspect Strategic (I)	0	500 LV	I +1.0
Peak Insights (R)	3	500 LV	I +2.6
Concord Public Opinion Partners for Bodnar (D)	7	405 LV	I +12.3
American Pulse Research & Polling for NonStop Local	21	600 RV	I +0.7
Aspect Strategic (I)	30	715 LV	I +2.0
Quantus Insights	36	625 LV	I +4.7
Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics	38	845 RV	I +6.9