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New Mexico Senate
Ben Ray Luján vs Larry Marker
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2599
Raised $6.4M against $92K for Larry Marker.
- Cash weight 20100
$4.4M in the bank against $2K for Larry Marker. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $217K helping Ben Ray Luján and $0 helping Larry Marker.
- Early vote weight 1581
Registered Democrats cast 54% of the 316,642 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 30% for the other party. That is 1.7 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1581
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.05 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.7 points of that tide, a tailwind for Ben Ray Luján.
- Activity weight 1025
$134K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 251
Raised $92K against $6.4M for Ben Ray Luján.
- Cash weight 200
$2K in the bank against $4.4M for Ben Ray Luján. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping Larry Marker and $217K helping Ben Ray Luján.
- Early vote weight 1519
Registered Republicans cast 30% of the 316,642 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 54% for the other party. That is 1.7 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1519
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.05 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.7 points of that tide, a headwind for Larry Marker.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $2K against $4.4M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Ben Ray Luján leads by 20.0 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 163,955 votes; a one point swing is about 4,093 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.8 and D +28.1. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +16.1. Your best recent poll is SurveyUSA for KOB 4 at D +17.4; your worst is Research & Polling Inc. at D +17.0. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Bernalillo, a projected net 98,130 votes; Santa Fe, a projected net 49,068 votes; Doña Ana, a projected net 20,264 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Valencia, R +2.4, 3.5% of the vote; Luna, R +4.7, 0.9% of the vote; Colfax, D +0.7, 0.6% of the vote; Sierra, R +9.3, 0.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Ben Ray Luján runs furthest behind in Lea, Eddy, Curry. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 61 to 39, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.27 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 64% of voters, 62 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.20 points; Voters without a degree, 61% of voters, 58 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.05 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Ben Ray Luján: Immigration voters 33 to 67, Small counties 50 to 50, White voters 54 to 46. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$4.4M cash against $2K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 54% of the 316,642 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 30% for the other party. That is 1.7 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.1 points away from Ben Ray Luján. Election Day has to make it up: the remaining vote must break harder your way than the forecast expects.
- Larry Marker's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 30% of the 316,642 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 54% for the other party.
- Close the gap
Larry Marker trails by 20.0 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 81,978 voters switching sides, or 163,955 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +28.1 and D +11.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +16.1. Your best recent poll is Research & Polling Inc. at D +17.0; your worst is SurveyUSA for KOB 4 at D +17.4. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Lea, a projected net 10,442 votes; Eddy, a projected net 10,248 votes; San Juan, a projected net 9,632 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Valencia, R +2.4, 3.5% of the vote; Luna, R +4.7, 0.9% of the vote; Colfax, D +0.7, 0.6% of the vote; Sierra, R +9.3, 0.6% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Larry Marker runs furthest behind in San Miguel, Rio Arriba, McKinley. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 39 to 61, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.27 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 64% of voters, 38 to 62, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.20 points; Voters without a degree, 61% of voters, 42 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.05 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Larry Marker: Independents 24 to 76, Health care and Social Security voters 27 to 73, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 29 to 71. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2K cash against $4.4M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 30% of the 316,642 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 54% for the other party. That is 1.7 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- What the ballots so far say
The early vote has moved this forecast 0.1 points toward Larry Marker. Bank it: chase the remaining mail ballots and low propensity voters who have not voted.
- Ben Ray Luján's strongest asset
Cash: $4.4M in the bank against $2K for Larry Marker.
The map for Luján
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bernalillo | D +35.4 | 33.9% | +98,130 |
| Santa Fe | D +64.4 | 9.3% | +49,068 |
| Doña Ana | D +27.5 | 9% | +20,264 |
| Sandoval | D +17.0 | 8.3% | +11,593 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | R +2.4 | 3.5% | -702 |
| Luna | R +4.7 | 0.9% | -340 |
| Colfax | D +0.7 | 0.6% | +35 |
| Sierra | R +9.3 | 0.6% | -489 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lea | R +57.0 | 2.2% | -10,442 |
| Eddy | R +50.8 | 2.5% | -10,248 |
| Curry | R +35.5 | 1.6% | -4,787 |
The coalition
Luján against Marker among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202466% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford64% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters without a degree61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- White voters58% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties23% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.1
- White voters58% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +20.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +28.1 and D +11.8
- Polling average
- D +16.1
- Partisan lean
- D +7.6
- Early vote effect
- R +0.1
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 6 | 1,125 LV | D +17.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KOB 4 | 15 | 567 LV | D +17.4 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Luján | Marker | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $6.4M | $92K |
| Spent | $2.4M | $81K |
| Cash on hand | $4.4M | $2K |
| Outside money for | $217K | $0 |
| Google ads | $134K | $0 |
The early vote
New Mexico, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 316,642
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +24.3
- Forecast expected
- D +22.6
- Against expectation
- 1.7 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.