How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
New Mexico Governor
Deb Haaland vs Gregg Hull
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2581
Raised $6.4M against $1.5M for Gregg Hull.
- Cash weight 2084
$2.8M in the bank against $520K for Gregg Hull.
- Early vote weight 1585
Registered Democrats cast 55% of the 262,689 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 29% for the other party. That is 3.5 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1578
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.89 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.5 points of that tide, a tailwind for Deb Haaland.
- Money weight 2519
Raised $1.5M against $6.4M for Deb Haaland.
- Cash weight 2016
$520K in the bank against $2.8M for Deb Haaland.
- Early vote weight 1515
Registered Republicans cast 29% of the 262,689 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 55% for the other party. That is 3.5 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1522
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.89 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.5 points of that tide, a headwind for Gregg Hull.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $520K against $2.8M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Deb Haaland leads by 13.8 in the forecast and wins 99% of simulations. The cushion is about 112,197 votes; a one point swing is about 4,065 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +6.5 and D +21.1. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +6.9. Your best recent poll is Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal at D +8.0; your worst is SurveyUSA at D +5.4. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Bernalillo, a projected net 77,417 votes; Santa Fe, a projected net 46,170 votes; Doña Ana, a projected net 14,972 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Sandoval, D +9.9, 8.4% of the vote; Valencia, R +11.7, 3.5% of the vote; Cibola, D +10.1, 1.0% of the vote; Socorro, D +4.4, 0.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Deb Haaland runs furthest behind in Lea, Curry, Chaves. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 57 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.31 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 60 to 39, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.10 points; Voters without a degree, 60% of voters, 55 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.00 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Deb Haaland: Immigration voters 28 to 70, Small counties 46 to 52, Voters who can afford daily costs 47 to 52. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.8M cash against $520K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 55% of the 262,689 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 29% for the other party. That is 3.5 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Gregg Hull's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
- Close the gap
Gregg Hull trails by 13.8 and wins 1% of simulations. Closing it takes about 56,099 voters switching sides, or 112,197 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +21.1 and D +6.5. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +6.9. Your best recent poll is SurveyUSA at D +5.4; your worst is Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal at D +8.0. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: San Juan, a projected net 12,105 votes; Lea, a projected net 10,785 votes; Eddy, a projected net 10,152 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Sandoval, D +9.9, 8.4% of the vote; Valencia, R +11.7, 3.5% of the vote; Cibola, D +10.1, 1.0% of the vote; Socorro, D +4.4, 0.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Gregg Hull runs furthest behind in McKinley, Taos, San Miguel. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 66% of voters, 42 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.31 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 39 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.10 points; Voters without a degree, 60% of voters, 44 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.00 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Gregg Hull: Health care and Social Security voters 28 to 71, Corruption voters 32 to 66, Independents 32 to 65. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$520K cash against $2.8M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 29% of the 262,689 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 55% for the other party. That is 3.5 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Deb Haaland's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 55% of the 262,689 ballots in New Mexico so far, against 29% for the other party.
The map for Haaland
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bernalillo | D +27.9 | 34.2% | +77,417 |
| Santa Fe | D +60.3 | 9.4% | +46,170 |
| Doña Ana | D +20.5 | 9% | +14,972 |
| Taos | D +60.9 | 1.9% | +9,375 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandoval | D +9.9 | 8.4% | +6,804 |
| Valencia | R +11.7 | 3.5% | -3,328 |
| Cibola | D +10.1 | 1% | +828 |
| Socorro | D +4.4 | 0.8% | +279 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lea | R +62.1 | 2.1% | -10,785 |
| Curry | R +40.3 | 1.6% | -5,290 |
| Chaves | R +42.2 | 2.4% | -8,107 |
The coalition
Haaland against Hull among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202466% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.3
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters without a degree60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- White voters59% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties22% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.1
- Voters who can afford daily costs38% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +13.8
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +21.1 and D +6.5
- Polling average
- D +6.9
- Partisan lean
- D +7.6
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal | 6 | 1,125 LV | D +8.0 |
| SurveyUSA | 15 | 567 LV | D +5.4 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Haaland | Hull | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $6.4M | $1.5M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $2.8M | $520K |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
New Mexico, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 262,689
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +26.5
- Forecast expected
- D +23.0
- Against expectation
- 3.5 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-09-13Pete Buttigieg rally in Las Cruces
Buttigieg rallied more than 600 people at Centennial High School for Haaland and Vasquez. Source