2026 forecast
New Mexico Senate forecast
Ben Ray Luján vs Larry Marker. The model has Luján ahead by 20.8 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
33 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +28.6 and D +13.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +19.2 | |
| SurveyUSA for KOB 4 | 567 LV | 13d | D +18.0 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 516 LV | 46d | D +16.1 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Luján | Marker |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 56.8 | 43.2 |
| Women | 52% | 63.7 | 36.3 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 60.4 | 39.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 56.9 | 43.1 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 59.3 | 40.7 |
| 65+ | 33% | 63.7 | 36.3 |
| RaceWhite | 49% | 50.1 | 49.9 |
| Black | 2% | 83.7 | 16.3 |
| Latino | 38% | 68.8 | 31.2 |
| Asian and other | 11% | 71.9 | 28.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 22% | 43.8 | 56.2 |
| White women | 26% | 55.5 | 44.5 |
| Black women | 1% | 86.5 | 13.5 |
| Latino men | 18% | 65.9 | 34.1 |
| Latino women | 20% | 71.5 | 28.5 |
| All other races | 11% | 71.9 | 28.1 |