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21 DAYS OUT
KS SenMarshall R +0.2KS GovMasterson R +0.3IA SenTurek D +1.2AK SenPeltola D +1.5FL GovDonalds R +1.7NE SenOsborn I +1.9SC SenGraham R +2.5TX GovAbbott R +2.6GA GovBottoms D +3.0ME SenJackson D +3.1TX SenTalarico D +3.2OH GovActon D +3.4NV GovLombardo R +3.5FL SenMoody R +4.1WI GovCrowley D +4.1OH SenBrown D +4.4
2026 forecast

New Hampshire Senate forecast

Chris Pappas vs John E. Sununu, an open seat. The model has Pappas ahead by 11.9 points, winning 96 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.

Likely DModel D +11.9Polls D +8.0Updated October 13, 2026

County simulation

10 counties
D +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote

Every simulated outcome

10,000 sims
D +66.5: 1 simulationsD +63.4: 0 simulationsD +60.4: 0 simulationsD +57.3: 1 simulationsD +54.3: 1 simulationsD +51.2: 2 simulationsD +48.2: 0 simulationsD +45.1: 2 simulationsD +42.1: 5 simulationsD +39.0: 1 simulationsD +36.0: 9 simulationsD +32.9: 28 simulationsD +29.9: 49 simulationsD +26.8: 128 simulationsD +23.8: 318 simulationsD +20.7: 653 simulationsD +17.7: 1246 simulationsD +14.6: 1750 simulationsD +11.6: 2038 simulationsD +8.5: 1657 simulationsD +5.5: 1067 simulationsD +2.4: 592 simulationsR +0.6: 246 simulationsR +3.7: 106 simulationsR +6.7: 57 simulationsR +9.8: 19 simulationsR +12.8: 9 simulationsR +15.9: 6 simulationsR +18.9: 5 simulationsR +22.0: 0 simulationsR +25.0: 2 simulationsR +28.1: 0 simulationsR +31.1: 0 simulationsR +34.2: 0 simulationsR +37.2: 0 simulationsR +40.3: 0 simulationsR +43.3: 1 simulationsR +46.4: 0 simulationsR +49.4: 0 simulationsR +52.5: 1 simulationsD +68.0R +54.0

80 percent of simulations fall between D +19.9 and D +3.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

Polls of the race

Full average
PollsterSampleAgeMargin
OnPoint averageLOWESS Election Day projectionD +8.0
YouGov1,520 LV8dD +7.1
Rasmussen Reports (R)979 LV9dD +6.3
Saint Anselm College for AARP1,042 LV14dD +6.5
Trafalgar Group (R)1,082 LV16dD +8.0
New York Times/Siena University613 LV21dD +4.6
New York Times/Siena University613 LV21dD +4.6
University of New Hampshire1,418 LV22dD +8.3
University of New Hampshire1,418 LV22dD +8.3
InsiderAdvantage (R)1,200 LV26dD +9.6
co/efficient (R)958 LV32dD +4.0
Rasmussen Reports (R)1,000 LV33dD +12.1
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)600 LV44dD +1.0
University of New Hampshire1,878 LV50dR +1.7
Saint Anselm College1,411 LV56dD +6.6
Peak Insights (R)500 LV108dD +6.0
Saint Anselm College1,614 RV110dD +5.8
University of New Hampshire2,232 LV112dD +3.3
University of New Hampshire2,053 LV267dD +5.3
NHJournal/Praecones Analytica603 RV289dD +6.1
Guidant Polling and Strategy600 LV306dD +3.0
Saint Anselm College2,212 RV328dD +2.9
co/efficient1,034 LV365dD +5.1
University of New Hampshire1,235 LV385dD +6.3
co/efficient904 LV396dD +5.1
1892 Polling500 LV404dD +1.9

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupSharePappasSununu
GenderMen45%48.848.6
Women55%59.537.9
Age18 to 2914%57.339.9
30 to 4420%52.644.8
45 to 6435%52.045.4
65+31%57.739.7
RaceWhite92%52.644.8
Black1%87.010.4
Latino3%70.027.4
Asian and other5%79.117.8
Race and genderWhite men41%45.951.5
White women51%58.039.4
Latino men1%68.029.3
Latino women1%72.025.4
All other races5%79.117.8