How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Massachusetts Senate
Ed Markey vs John Deaton
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2578
Raised $5.8M against $1.6M for John Deaton.
- Cash weight 2065
$1.3M in the bank against $712K for John Deaton. As of 08/12/2026.
- Air cover weight 1517
Outside groups spent $43K helping Ed Markey and $205K helping John Deaton.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.01 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.1 points of that tide, a tailwind for Ed Markey.
- Activity weight 1025
$205K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2522
Raised $1.6M against $5.8M for Ed Markey.
- Cash weight 2035
$712K in the bank against $1.3M for Ed Markey. As of 08/12/2026.
- Air cover weight 1583
Outside groups spent $205K helping John Deaton and $43K helping Ed Markey.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.01 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.1 points of that tide, a headwind for John Deaton.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Ed Markey leads by 32.8 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 937,565 votes; a one point swing is about 14,297 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +25.8 and D +39.6. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +24.5. Your best recent poll is Suffolk University/Boston Globe at D +26.6; your worst is University of New Hampshire at D +23.2. 4 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Middlesex, a projected net 327,543 votes; Suffolk, a projected net 173,523 votes; Norfolk, a projected net 107,272 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Bristol, D +7.3, 7.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Ed Markey runs furthest behind in Worcester, Barnstable, Plymouth. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Men, 48% of voters, 61 to 36, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.38 points; 2024 voters who skipped 2022, 21% of voters, 60 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.03 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Ed Markey: Immigration voters 31 to 66, 2024 voters who skipped 2022 60 to 37, Men 61 to 36. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.3M cash against $712K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- John Deaton's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $205K helping John Deaton and $43K helping Ed Markey.
- Close the gap
John Deaton trails by 32.8 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 468,783 voters switching sides, or 937,565 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +39.6 and D +25.8. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +24.5. Your best recent poll is University of New Hampshire at D +23.2; your worst is Suffolk University/Boston Globe at D +26.6. 4 polls in the last 30 days.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Bristol, D +7.3, 7.7% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, John Deaton runs furthest behind in Suffolk, Franklin, Berkshire. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Men, 48% of voters, 36 to 61, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.38 points; 2024 voters who skipped 2022, 21% of voters, 37 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 1.03 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for John Deaton: Black voters 16 to 82, Health care and Social Security voters 17 to 80, Corruption voters 18 to 79. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$712K cash against $1.3M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Ed Markey's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Markey
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex | D +48.1 | 23.8% | +327,543 |
| Suffolk | D +66.2 | 9.2% | +173,523 |
| Norfolk | D +33.7 | 11.1% | +107,272 |
| Essex | D +27.6 | 11.4% | +89,604 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol | D +7.3 | 7.7% | +16,094 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worcester | D +13.8 | 11.9% | +46,906 |
| Barnstable | D +24.5 | 4.4% | +30,463 |
| Plymouth | D +13.1 | 8.4% | +31,506 |
The coalition
Markey against Deaton among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Men48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- 2024 voters who skipped 202221% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.0
- Immigration voters8% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- 2024 voters who skipped 202221% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.0
- Men48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +32.8
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +39.6 and D +25.8
- Polling average
- D +24.5
- Partisan lean
- D +27.4
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University/Boston Globe | 0 | 500 LV | D +26.6 |
| UMass Amherst/WCVB/YouGov | 3 | 800 RV | D +26.1 |
| MassINC Polling Group for CommonWealth Beacon | 23 | 800 LV | D +25.8 |
| University of New Hampshire | 24 | 564 LV | D +23.2 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 08/12/2026| Markey | Deaton | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $5.8M | $1.6M |
| Spent | $5.8M | $849K |
| Cash on hand | $1.3M | $712K |
| Outside money for | $43K | $205K |
| Google ads | $205K | $0 |
The early vote
StatewideNo early vote data for Massachusetts yet.
Media watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.