2026 forecast
Massachusetts Senate forecast
Ed Markey vs John Deaton. The model has Markey ahead by 32.5 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
14 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +39.2 and D +25.6. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +28.7 | |
| MassINC Polling Group for CommonWealth Beacon | 800 LV | 21d | D +25.6 |
| University of New Hampshire | 564 LV | 22d | D +23.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 564 LV | 22d | D +23.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 881 LV | 50d | D +19.2 |
| UMass Amherst/YouGov | 800 RV | 62d | D +20.5 |
| University of New Hampshire | 623 LV | 112d | D +16.2 |
| Suffolk University | 500 LV | 123d | D +23.9 |
| University of New Hampshire | 603 LV | 176d | D +23.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | 620 LV | 239d | D +29.2 |
| Cygnal (R) | 800 LV | 261d | D +25.2 |
| Suffolk University | 500 RV | 324d | D +22.2 |
| SurveyUSA | 775 RV | 588d | D +19.2 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Markey | Deaton |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 59.3 | 36.4 |
| Women | 54% | 68.1 | 27.6 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 66.3 | 29.3 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 61.8 | 33.9 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 62.5 | 33.2 |
| 65+ | 28% | 66.6 | 29.2 |
| RaceWhite | 78% | 59.5 | 36.2 |
| Black | 6% | 89.1 | 6.9 |
| Latino | 8% | 73.7 | 21.7 |
| Asian and other | 9% | 80.8 | 14.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 35% | 53.1 | 42.7 |
| White women | 43% | 64.7 | 31.0 |
| Black men | 3% | 87.5 | 8.5 |
| Black women | 3% | 90.5 | 5.6 |
| Latino men | 4% | 71.7 | 23.7 |
| Latino women | 4% | 75.7 | 19.8 |
| All other races | 9% | 80.8 | 14.6 |