How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Kansas Senate
Adam Hamilton vs Roger Marshall
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2574
Raised $13.5M against $4.8M for Roger Marshall.
- Cash weight 2065
$1.7M in the bank against $922K for Roger Marshall. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1553
Outside groups spent $19.1M helping Adam Hamilton and $17.1M helping Roger Marshall.
- Early vote weight 1569
Registered Democrats cast 47% of the 214,191 ballots in Kansas so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 15.0 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.00 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Adam Hamilton.
- Activity weight 1075
2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 2 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- −4 Contested items in the watchdog file. 2 allegations on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
- Money weight 2526
Raised $4.8M against $13.5M for Adam Hamilton.
- Cash weight 2035
$922K in the bank against $1.7M for Adam Hamilton. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1547
Outside groups spent $17.1M helping Roger Marshall and $19.1M helping Adam Hamilton.
- Early vote weight 1531
Registered Republicans cast 39% of the 214,191 ballots in Kansas so far, against 47% for the other party. That is 15.0 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.00 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Roger Marshall.
- Activity weight 10100
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 4 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $140K in Google political ads this cycle. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- −2 Contested items in the watchdog file. 1 allegation on file that the campaign disputes; opponents can run on them.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Adam Hamilton leads by 0.2 in the forecast and wins 50% of simulations. The cushion is about 2,291 votes; a one point swing is about 5,728 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +7.3 and D +7.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +2.1. Your best recent poll is Emerson College / Nexstar at D +2.8; your worst is RedBox Research (D) at R +2.1. 11 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Johnson, a projected net 93,495 votes; Douglas, a projected net 30,287 votes; Wyandotte, a projected net 21,040 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Sedgwick, D +1.9, 15.9% of the vote; Leavenworth, R +5.3, 2.7% of the vote; Crawford, R +7.2, 1.2% of the vote; Harvey, R +6.3, 1.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Adam Hamilton runs furthest behind in Pottawatomie, Butler, McPherson. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 88% of voters, 46 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.38 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 70% of voters, 48 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.50 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 54 to 43, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.98 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Adam Hamilton: Immigration voters 19 to 78, Small counties 30 to 67, Voters who can afford daily costs 38 to 59. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.7M cash against $922K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 47% of the 214,191 ballots in Kansas so far, against 39% for the other party. That is 15.0 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Roger Marshall's strongest asset
Activity: 3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- An opening
Tariffs, diesel prices from the Iran war and the beef import waiver hit farmers, and the patient lawsuits; Trump's Kansas approval was 40 percent in a September Emerson poll. Source
- Close the gap
Roger Marshall trails by 0.2 and wins 50% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,146 voters switching sides, or 2,291 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +7.9 and R +7.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +2.1. Your best recent poll is RedBox Research (D) at R +2.1; your worst is Emerson College / Nexstar at D +2.8. 11 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Butler, a projected net 8,549 votes; Reno, a projected net 5,200 votes; Montgomery, a projected net 4,878 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Sedgwick, D +1.9, 15.9% of the vote; Leavenworth, R +5.3, 2.7% of the vote; Crawford, R +7.2, 1.2% of the vote; Harvey, R +6.3, 1.2% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Roger Marshall runs furthest behind in Wyandotte, Johnson, Douglas. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 88% of voters, 51 to 46, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.38 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 70% of voters, 49 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.50 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 60% of voters, 43 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.98 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Roger Marshall: Black voters 19 to 78, Moderates 27 to 68, Independents 26 to 67. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$922K cash against $1.7M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 39% of the 214,191 ballots in Kansas so far, against 47% for the other party. That is 15.0 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Adam Hamilton's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
- An opening
Marshall's camp ties him to Schumer and national Democrats and attacks his handling of a 2005 church camp report, calling him unfit; Hamilton says the inquiry was inconclusive and he should have called police. Source
The map for Hamilton
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson | D +32.0 | 25.5% | +93,495 |
| Douglas | D +57.3 | 4.6% | +30,287 |
| Wyandotte | D +48.7 | 3.8% | +21,040 |
| Shawnee | D +19.3 | 6.3% | +13,807 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sedgwick | D +1.9 | 15.9% | +3,484 |
| Leavenworth | R +5.3 | 2.7% | -1,654 |
| Crawford | R +7.2 | 1.2% | -1,013 |
| Harvey | R +6.3 | 1.2% | -889 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pottawatomie | R +38.9 | 1% | -4,461 |
| Butler | R +31.4 | 2.4% | -8,549 |
| McPherson | R +30.0 | 1.1% | -3,728 |
The coalition
Hamilton against Marshall among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters88% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.4
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202470% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.5
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters without a degree57% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Small counties37% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.8
- Voters who can afford daily costs40% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message. He runs as an independent minded Democrat leading from the center, focused on pocketbook costs, and says there is room for Trump voters in his campaign. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. Marshall's camp ties him to Schumer and national Democrats and attacks his handling of a 2005 church camp report, calling him unfit; Hamilton says the inquiry was inconclusive and he should have called police. Source
- Strongest coalition. Unaffiliated voters, about 29 percent of Kansas registrants; Emerson in September had him up 42 to 27 among independents and 45 to 43 overall. Source
- Farm opening. The Kansas Livestock Association declined to endorse Marshall this cycle and farmers are angry over tariffs and diesel, though many still distrust Democrats on farming. Source
- Recent event. Cook moved the race to Toss Up on October 6, 2026, and Trump rallied near Wichita for Marshall on October 19. Source
- Money edge. He outraised Marshall nearly three to one through September 30, but Marshall's side had nearly ten times the ad reservations as of October 2. Source
Top donor blocs: Small donors, Party and leadership, Ideological groups
- Main message. Keep Trump's agenda going and keep the Senate Republican; he told voters control of the Senate goes through Kansas. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. Tariffs, diesel prices from the Iran war and the beef import waiver hit farmers, and the patient lawsuits; Trump's Kansas approval was 40 percent in a September Emerson poll. Source
- Strongest coalition. Trump aligned Republicans, who outnumber Democrats about 900,000 to 500,000 in registration; he drew more than 6,000 to a Trump rally near Wichita on October 19. Source
- Notable event. The Kansas Livestock Association declined to endorse him for the first time since 2016. Source
- Money picture. Outraised about three to one by Hamilton through September 30, but SLF, Main Street Fund, AFP Action and Club for Growth Action are covering the gap. Source
Top donor blocs: Party and leadership, Billionaire megadonor, Sugar and agriculture
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +0.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +7.9 and R +7.3
- Polling average
- D +2.1
- Partisan lean
- R +14.9
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point Polling | 0 | 479 LV | D +1.8 |
| RedBox Research (D) | 0 | 1,301 LV | R +2.1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1 | 800 LV | R +0.9 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 5 | 1,200 LV | D +1.1 |
| GBAO (D) | 11 | 600 LV | D +2.6 |
| GBAO for Hamilton (D) | 11 | 600 LV | D +2.7 |
| YouGov | 11 | 2,255 LV | D +2.2 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 14 | 1,095 LV | D +2.1 |
| New York Times/Siena | 15 | 605 LV | R +0.6 |
| Emerson College / Nexstar | 29 | 750 LV | D +2.8 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 29 | 800 LV | D +1.6 |
| co/efficient (R) | 35 | 915 LV | R +1.0 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Hamilton | Marshall | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $13.5M | $4.8M |
| Spent | $2.4M | $5.6M |
| Cash on hand | $1.7M | $922K |
| Outside money for | $19.1M | $17.1M |
| Google ads | $0 | $140K |
- Senate Leadership Fund against Adam Hamilton$6.0M
- People Over Politics Action Fund against Roger Marshall$3.4M
- WinSenate against Roger Marshall$3.3M
- Club for Growth Action against Adam Hamilton$2.5M
- Main Street Fund against Adam Hamilton$2.0M
- Americans for Prosperity Action against Adam Hamilton$2.0M
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$6.7M
The early vote
Kansas, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 214,191
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +7.5
- Forecast expected
- R +7.5
- Against expectation
- 15.0 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-27Alex Miller reporter
Interviewed Sen. Roger Marshall in Wichita for Fox News Digital, where Marshall said that if Republicans lose Kansas he does not see how they keep the Senate. Source
- 2026-10-26Simon Rosenberg commentator, leans D
Interviewed Democrat Adam Hamilton on his campaign bus for Hopium Chronicles, where Hamilton said early voting looks really strong and slammed Roger Marshall for skipping town halls. Source
- 2026-10-26Greg Orman commentator, leans other
On the RealClearPolitics podcast he said many Kansans remain angry the Epstein files are unreleased, as an Epstein themed ad targets Roger Marshall in a race within one point. Source
- 2026-10-22Harry Enten analyst
On Anderson Cooper 360 he said polling in the Kansas Senate race is tied and listed it among the races that could hand Democrats a majority. Source
- 2026-10-20Karl Rove commentator, leans R
Said Democrats will fall short in Kansas but it is a race. Source
- 2026-10-20Nathan Gonzales analyst
Inside Elections moved the Kansas Senate race between Roger Marshall and Adam Hamilton from Likely Republican to Tilt Republican. Source
- 2026-10-16Harry Enten analyst
Named Kansas among toss up Senate races, with polling showing a tie or Democrats up a few points. Source
- 2026-10-06Krystal Ball host, leans other
Breaking Points ran a 'GOP Panic Over Kansas' segment on Senate Leadership Fund spending about $14 million to rescue Sen. Roger Marshall. Source
- 2026-10-02David Chalian analyst
Said the GOP moving money to defend Roger Marshall in Kansas was not on anyone's bingo card. Source
- 2026-09-22Remy Numa analyst
Fox News Power Rankings moved Kansas Senate from Likely R to Lean R. Source
- 2026-09-02Tim Miller podcaster, leans D
Hosted Rich Baris, who said Kansas, Nebraska, Montana, Texas and Ohio could all be Democratic openings. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-31Donald Trump announced in Salina
Announced Saturday rally, doors 8:30 a.m., Trump to speak at noon, RSVP required, venue not yet announced. Source
- 2026-10-26JD Vance announced in Topeka
Announced Monday rally at HME Inc. Haas Group, hosted by Trump 47 Committee, Vance to speak at 5:15 p.m. Source
- 2026-10-26Adam Hamilton tour stop in Pratt
Monday bus tour stop, spoke to a crowd around the bandstand on a 10 day tour of more than 20 communities. Source
- 2026-10-24Adam Hamilton tour stop in Holton
Saturday statewide bus tour stop at Linscott Park. Source
- 2026-10-19Donald Trump rally in Park City
Heartland Credit Union Arena rally near Wichita. Source
- 2026-10-19Roger Marshall rally in Park City
Marshall spoke before President Trump at Heartland Credit Union Arena, focusing on Adam Hamilton, with Ted Nugent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins also present. Source
- 2026-09-14JD Vance event in Olathe
Campaign stop at an Olathe manufacturer. Source