How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Idaho Governor
Terri Pickens vs Brad Little
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 259
Raised $218K against $2.3M for Brad Little.
- Cash weight 205
$45K in the bank against $958K for Brad Little.
- Early vote weight 154
Registered Democrats cast 29% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 70% for the other party. That is 10.4 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1581
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.02 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Terri Pickens.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $45K against $958K.
- Money weight 2591
Raised $2.3M against $218K for Terri Pickens.
- Cash weight 2096
$958K in the bank against $45K for Terri Pickens.
- Early vote weight 1596
Registered Republicans cast 70% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 29% for the other party. That is 10.4 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1519
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 1.02 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Brad Little.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Terri Pickens trails by 21.5 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 78,306 voters switching sides, or 156,613 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +28.5 and R +14.4. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +18.6. Your best recent poll is Advanced Targeting Research at R +13.5; your worst is VoteNexus (D) at R +20.2. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Ada, a projected net 12,362 votes; Blaine, a projected net 5,164 votes; Latah, a projected net 1,390 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Ada, D +5.6, 30.1% of the vote; Bannock, R +9.3, 4.4% of the vote; Latah, D +8.0, 2.4% of the vote; Valley, R +6.6, 0.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Terri Pickens runs furthest behind in Bingham, Bonneville, Cassia. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 92% of voters, 31 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.60 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 65% of voters, 32 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.24 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 57% of voters, 37 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.85 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Terri Pickens: Immigration voters 9 to 76, Voters who can afford daily costs 25 to 61, Small counties 24 to 60. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$45K cash against $958K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 29% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 70% for the other party. That is 10.4 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Brad Little's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Republicans cast 70% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 29% for the other party.
- Protect the lead
Brad Little leads by 21.5 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 156,613 votes; a one point swing is about 3,640 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +14.4 and R +28.5. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +18.6. Your best recent poll is VoteNexus (D) at R +20.2; your worst is Advanced Targeting Research at R +13.5. 2 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Kootenai, a projected net 27,196 votes; Canyon, a projected net 23,429 votes; Bonneville, a projected net 16,329 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Ada, D +5.6, 30.1% of the vote; Bannock, R +9.3, 4.4% of the vote; Latah, D +8.0, 2.4% of the vote; Valley, R +6.6, 0.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Brad Little runs furthest behind in Gem. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 92% of voters, 55 to 31, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.60 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 65% of voters, 54 to 32, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.24 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 57% of voters, 48 to 37, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.85 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Brad Little: Independents 19 to 52, Moderates 31 to 49, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 32 to 48. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$958K cash against $45K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 70% of the 28,945 ballots in Idaho so far, against 29% for the other party. That is 10.4 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Terri Pickens's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Pickens
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ada | D +5.6 | 30.1% | +12,362 |
| Blaine | D +46.4 | 1.5% | +5,164 |
| Latah | D +8.0 | 2.4% | +1,390 |
| Teton | D +22.7 | 0.7% | +1,224 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ada | D +5.6 | 30.1% | +12,362 |
| Bannock | R +9.3 | 4.4% | -2,974 |
| Latah | D +8.0 | 2.4% | +1,390 |
| Valley | R +6.6 | 0.8% | -396 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bingham | R +51.1 | 2.2% | -8,351 |
| Bonneville | R +36.5 | 6.1% | -16,329 |
| Cassia | R +59.0 | 1.1% | -4,528 |
The coalition
Pickens against Little among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters92% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.6
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202465% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.2
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford57% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.9
- Women51% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.6
- Immigration voters14% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- Voters who can afford daily costs43% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.1
- Small counties34% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.7
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +21.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- R +14.4 and R +28.5
- Polling average
- R +18.6
- Partisan lean
- R +36.0
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Targeting Research | 29 | 700 RV | R +13.5 |
| VoteNexus (D) | 0 | 700 LV | R +20.2 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Pickens | Little | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $218K | $2.3M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $45K | $958K |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Idaho, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 28,945
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +40.2
- Forecast expected
- R +29.8
- Against expectation
- 10.4 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.