2026 forecast
Idaho Senate forecast
Todd Achilles vs Jim Risch. The model has Risch ahead by 18.5 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
44 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +11.9 and R +24.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +22.6 | |
| Peak Insights (R) | 500 LV | 13d | R +21.1 |
| Advanced Targeting Research | 700 RV | 27d | D +4.5 |
| Peak Insights (R) | 500 LV | 61d | R +30.7 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 608 LV | 67d | R +2.2 |
| Change Research (D) | 1,213 LV | 75d | R +24.7 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 774 RV | 134d | R +6.8 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Achilles | Risch |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 31.0 | 57.9 |
| Women | 51% | 39.2 | 49.7 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 37.9 | 50.1 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 34.9 | 54.1 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 33.1 | 56.0 |
| 65+ | 29% | 36.3 | 52.9 |
| RaceWhite | 87% | 32.6 | 56.4 |
| Latino | 8% | 46.4 | 42.1 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 58.7 | 28.7 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 42% | 27.6 | 61.7 |
| White women | 45% | 37.3 | 51.6 |
| Latino men | 4% | 43.7 | 44.6 |
| Latino women | 4% | 49.6 | 39.2 |
| All other races | 5% | 58.7 | 28.7 |