How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Pennsylvania Governor
Josh Shapiro vs Stacy Garrity
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2589
Raised $31.7M against $3.8M for Stacy Garrity.
- Cash weight 2094
$19.8M in the bank against $1.3M for Stacy Garrity.
- Early vote weight 1584
Registered Democrats cast 66% of the 890,346 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 2.2 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1567
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.50 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 7.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Josh Shapiro.
- Activity weight 1025
2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Money weight 2511
Raised $3.8M against $31.7M for Josh Shapiro.
- Cash weight 206
$1.3M in the bank against $19.8M for Josh Shapiro.
- Early vote weight 1516
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 890,346 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 66% for the other party. That is 2.2 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1533
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.50 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 7.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Stacy Garrity.
- Activity weight 1025
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $1.3M against $19.8M.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Josh Shapiro leads by 21.5 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 1,301,777 votes; a one point swing is about 30,288 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +15.2 and D +27.9. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +23.5. Your best recent poll is Bravo Group/PennLive at D +28.8; your worst is Z to A Research (D) at D +17.8. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Philadelphia, a projected net 496,649 votes; Allegheny, a projected net 291,276 votes; Montgomery, a projected net 216,201 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Lancaster, D +5.6, 4.1% of the vote; York, R +2.6, 3.5% of the vote; Westmoreland, R +3.2, 3.0% of the vote; Berks, D +10.5, 2.9% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Josh Shapiro runs furthest behind in Franklin, Philadelphia, Lebanon. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 84% of voters, 55 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.20 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 72% of voters, 58 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.58 points; Voters without a degree, 60% of voters, 57 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Josh Shapiro: Immigration voters 23 to 75, Small counties 34 to 64, Midsize counties 48 to 49. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$19.8M cash against $1.3M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 66% of the 890,346 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 2.2 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Stacy Garrity's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
- Close the gap
Stacy Garrity trails by 21.5 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 650,888 voters switching sides, or 1,301,777 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +27.9 and D +15.2. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +23.5. Your best recent poll is Z to A Research (D) at D +17.8; your worst is Bravo Group/PennLive at D +28.8. 8 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Franklin, a projected net 18,829 votes; Somerset, a projected net 13,944 votes; Bedford, a projected net 13,532 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Lancaster, D +5.6, 4.1% of the vote; York, R +2.6, 3.5% of the vote; Westmoreland, R +3.2, 3.0% of the vote; Berks, D +10.5, 2.9% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Stacy Garrity runs furthest behind in Lackawanna, Beaver, Bucks. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 84% of voters, 42 to 55, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.20 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 72% of voters, 40 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.58 points; Voters without a degree, 60% of voters, 40 to 57, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.02 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Stacy Garrity: Black voters 11 to 87, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 20 to 76, Independents 20 to 75. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$1.3M cash against $19.8M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 890,346 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 66% for the other party. That is 2.2 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Josh Shapiro's strongest asset
Cash: $19.8M in the bank against $1.3M for Stacy Garrity.
The map for Shapiro
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | D +77.7 | 10.5% | +496,649 |
| Allegheny | D +46.1 | 10.4% | +291,276 |
| Montgomery | D +47.9 | 7.5% | +216,201 |
| Delaware | D +47.4 | 4.7% | +133,749 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster | D +5.6 | 4.1% | +13,880 |
| York | R +2.6 | 3.5% | -5,449 |
| Westmoreland | R +3.2 | 3% | -5,833 |
| Berks | D +10.5 | 2.9% | +18,709 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin | R +26.2 | 1.2% | -18,829 |
| Philadelphia | D +77.7 | 10.5% | +496,649 |
| Lebanon | R +10.6 | 1% | -6,676 |
The coalition
Shapiro against Garrity among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters84% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.2
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202472% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.6
- Voters without a degree61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Men48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- Immigration voters8% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Small counties7% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.3
- Midsize counties29% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.5
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Shapiro had raised about $55 million since the start of 2025 by the September 14, 2026 report, per [Spotlight PA]( and his campaign says more than $60 million since he took office, per the [Inquirer]( His Republican opponent Stacy Garrity had a bit over $5 million. Through early June 2026 he had more than 45,000 contributors, an average gift of $848, 82 donors at $100,000 or more, and 51 percent of his dollars from outside Pennsylvania, per [Public Source via the Capital-Star]( The money is broad, so no single bloc dominates. Four interests combine large money with a live decision on his desk:
- Labor unions. At least $1.6 million in named 2026 union checks from the Carpenters, IBEW Local 98, AFSCME and the teachers union. Live levers: transit money tied to his skill game tax, the FY 2027 to 2028 budget, and whether Pennsylvania opts in to the new federal tax credit scholarships.
Top donor blocs: Labor unions, Billionaire megadonor, Party and leadership
- Garrity had raised a bit over $5 million since the start of 2025 by the September 14 report, against about $55 million for Josh Shapiro, per [Spotlight PA]( She entered the final stretch with about $1.4 million and had spent about $440,000 on advertising in the summer period, $204,000 of it on TV, per [Public Source]( Her money is mostly in state and small. About 86 percent came from Pennsylvania and her average gift was $457. Three interests combine money with a live decision:
- The skill game industry. She accepted a $33,500 flight from Pace-O-Matic founder Michael Pace. The company's PAC gave her $5,000. Her largest donor network, Bob Asher and his PA Future Fund at $345,000 in named 2026 gifts, runs through a man wire copy describes as a registered Pace-O-Matic lobbyist. Citizens Alliance, funded by Pace-O-Matic, pledged 750,000 doors for her. She backs the industry's flat $500 per machine fee.
Top donor blocs: Gambling, Party and leadership, Billionaire megadonor
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +21.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +27.9 and D +15.2
- Polling average
- D +23.5
- Partisan lean
- R +0.2
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall | 0 | 808 RV | D +20.7 |
| ActiVote | 0 | 400 LV | D +23.0 |
| Bravo Group/PennLive | 4 | 628 RV | D +28.8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 10 | 1,159 LV | D +23.9 |
| Z to A Research (D) | 14 | 630 LV | D +17.8 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | 15 | 700 LV | D +20.1 |
| Bravo Group/PennLive | 23 | 624 RV | D +25.7 |
| The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 23 | 615 LV | D +19.3 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Shapiro | Garrity | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $31.7M | $3.8M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $19.8M | $1.3M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Pennsylvania, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 890,346
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +40.9
- Forecast expected
- D +43.1
- Against expectation
- 2.2 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-09-03Kyle Kondik analyst
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Gov. Josh Shapiro's race from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-26Stacy Garrity event in Lebanon
Toured Henry Molded Products and spoke to supporters with Rep. Dan Meuser. Source
- 2026-10-25Josh Shapiro rally in University Park
Bus tour rally in front of Old Main on the Penn State campus hosted by Penn State College Democrats. Source
- 2026-10-24Josh Shapiro rally in Pittsburgh
Stop at Fiori's pizza in Brookline, then an evening rally at the IBEW Local 5 hall on the South Side with Lt. Gov. Austin Davis. Source