2026 forecast
Pennsylvania Governor forecast
Josh Shapiro vs Stacy Garrity. The model has Shapiro ahead by 25.3 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
67 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +31.6 and D +19.3. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +24.5 | |
| Quinnipiac University | 1,159 LV | 8d | D +24.4 |
| Z to A Research (D) | 630 LV | 12d | D +17.8 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | 700 LV | 13d | D +20.1 |
| Bravo Group/PennLive | 624 RV | 21d | D +26.0 |
| The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 615 LV | 21d | D +19.7 |
| The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena | 615 LV | 22d | D +19.7 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | 501 RV | 51d | D +24.1 |
| PennLive | 711 RV | 52d | D +29.3 |
| The New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena | 760 LV | 53d | D +15.7 |
| National Public Affairs (R) | 600 LV | 75d | D +10.3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 895 RV | 92d | D +12.7 |
| PennLive | 644 RV | 110d | D +23.1 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | 546 RV | 121d | D +21.1 |
| MAD Global Strategy | 600 LV | 124d | D +17.1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 1,579 RV | 379d | D +15.7 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research | 700 LV | 380d | D +17.0 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Shapiro | Garrity |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 56.9 | 40.7 |
| Women | 53% | 65.5 | 32.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 67.2 | 30.3 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 61.6 | 36.1 |
| 45 to 64 | 33% | 59.0 | 38.6 |
| 65+ | 32% | 61.5 | 36.2 |
| RaceWhite | 81% | 55.5 | 42.0 |
| Black | 10% | 94.3 | 3.7 |
| Latino | 5% | 74.8 | 22.8 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 82.5 | 14.9 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 38% | 49.6 | 47.9 |
| White women | 43% | 60.6 | 36.9 |
| Black men | 5% | 93.8 | 4.2 |
| Black women | 5% | 94.8 | 3.3 |
| Latino men | 3% | 73.1 | 24.5 |
| Latino women | 3% | 76.7 | 20.9 |
| All other races | 5% | 82.5 | 14.9 |