2026 forecast
New Mexico Governor forecast
Deb Haaland vs Gregg Hull, an open seat. The model has Haaland ahead by 11.7 points, winning 97 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
33 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +18.9 and D +4.3. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +8.8 | |
| Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal | 1,125 LV | 4d | D +8.1 |
| SurveyUSA | 567 LV | 13d | D +6.0 |
| Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal | 516 LV | 46d | D +7.1 |
| BSP Research | 800 RV | 67d | D +15.8 |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) for the Hull campaign | 400 LV | 90d | D +4.1 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Haaland | Hull |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 48% | 51.4 | 47.2 |
| Women | 52% | 58.6 | 40.0 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 54.0 | 44.6 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 51.1 | 47.5 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 54.1 | 44.5 |
| 65+ | 33% | 59.3 | 39.4 |
| RaceWhite | 49% | 44.8 | 53.9 |
| Black | 2% | 78.8 | 19.9 |
| Latino | 38% | 63.9 | 34.8 |
| Asian and other | 11% | 65.9 | 32.3 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 22% | 38.6 | 60.1 |
| White women | 26% | 50.1 | 48.6 |
| Black women | 1% | 82.3 | 16.5 |
| Latino men | 18% | 60.9 | 37.8 |
| Latino women | 20% | 66.7 | 32.0 |
| All other races | 11% | 65.9 | 32.3 |