2026 forecast
New Hampshire Governor forecast
Cinde Warmington vs Kelly Ayotte. The model has Ayotte ahead by 8.8 points, winning 93 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
10 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +0.9 and R +16.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +10.0 | |
| YouGov | 1,520 LV | 8d | R +9.9 |
| Saint Anselm College for AARP | 1,042 LV | 14d | R +7.5 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 613 LV | 21d | R +11.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,418 LV | 22d | R +3.7 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,418 LV | 22d | R +3.7 |
| co/efficient (R) | 958 LV | 32d | R +17.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,878 LV | 50d | R +9.7 |
| Saint Anselm College | 1,411 LV | 56d | R +11.4 |
| Saint Anselm College | 1,614 RV | 110d | R +8.1 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2,232 LV | 112d | R +4.7 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Warmington | Ayotte |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 45% | 38.7 | 58.7 |
| Women | 55% | 49.0 | 48.4 |
| Age18 to 29 | 14% | 44.7 | 52.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 20% | 41.6 | 55.9 |
| 45 to 64 | 35% | 41.9 | 55.5 |
| 65+ | 31% | 48.6 | 48.8 |
| RaceWhite | 92% | 42.1 | 55.3 |
| Black | 1% | 80.3 | 17.2 |
| Latino | 3% | 61.4 | 36.0 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 70.0 | 27.0 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 41% | 35.7 | 61.7 |
| White women | 51% | 47.3 | 50.1 |
| Latino men | 1% | 59.6 | 37.9 |
| Latino women | 1% | 63.3 | 34.2 |
| All other races | 5% | 70.0 | 27.0 |