2026 forecast
Idaho Governor forecast
Terri Pickens vs Brad Little. The model has Little ahead by 23.3 points, winning 100 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
44 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between R +16.3 and R +30.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +20.8 | |
| Advanced Targeting Research | 700 RV | 27d | R +13.2 |
| Advanced Targeting Research | 700 RV | 27d | R +13.2 |
| Change Research for the Stegner campaign | 1,213 LV | 75d | R +20.8 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Pickens | Little |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 27.1 | 58.6 |
| Women | 51% | 35.1 | 50.5 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 32.9 | 52.4 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 30.6 | 55.4 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 29.3 | 56.4 |
| 65+ | 29% | 32.8 | 52.7 |
| RaceWhite | 87% | 28.7 | 57.1 |
| Latino | 8% | 42.2 | 43.0 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 53.6 | 29.8 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 42% | 23.7 | 62.4 |
| White women | 45% | 33.2 | 52.3 |
| Latino men | 4% | 39.6 | 45.4 |
| Latino women | 4% | 45.2 | 40.4 |
| All other races | 5% | 53.6 | 29.8 |