How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Colorado Governor
Phil Weiser vs Victor Marx
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2561
Raised $1.7M against $1.1M for Victor Marx.
- Cash weight 2082
$725K in the bank against $158K for Victor Marx.
- Early vote weight 1564
Registered Democrats cast 32% of the 982,522 ballots in Colorado so far, against 24% for the other party. That is 4.5 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1576
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.84 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.8 points of that tide, a tailwind for Phil Weiser.
- Money weight 2539
Raised $1.1M against $1.7M for Phil Weiser.
- Cash weight 2018
$158K in the bank against $725K for Phil Weiser.
- Early vote weight 1536
Registered Republicans cast 24% of the 982,522 ballots in Colorado so far, against 32% for the other party. That is 4.5 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1524
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.84 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.8 points of that tide, a headwind for Victor Marx.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Phil Weiser leads by 21.1 in the forecast and wins 100% of simulations. The cushion is about 599,834 votes; a one point swing is about 14,187 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.9 and D +30.0. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Denver, a projected net 230,748 votes; Boulder, a projected net 118,799 votes; Jefferson, a projected net 98,754 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: El Paso, R +1.4, 11.8% of the vote; Douglas, D +2.0, 7.1% of the vote; Pueblo, D +0.6, 2.7% of the vote; Garfield, D +9.9, 1.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Phil Weiser runs furthest behind in Pueblo, Mesa, Weld. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 82% of voters, 56 to 41, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.08 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 74% of voters, 59 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.69 points; Voters without a degree, 48% of voters, 54 to 42, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.40 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Phil Weiser: Immigration voters 24 to 73, Small counties 46 to 50, Midsize counties 49 to 47. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$725K cash against $158K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 32% of the 982,522 ballots in Colorado so far, against 24% for the other party. That is 4.5 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Victor Marx's strongest asset
Money: Raised $1.1M against $1.7M for Phil Weiser.
- Close the gap
Victor Marx trails by 21.1 and wins 0% of simulations. Closing it takes about 299,917 voters switching sides, or 599,834 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +30.0 and D +11.9. Only an unusual polling error changes the winner.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Weld, a projected net 21,229 votes; Mesa, a projected net 14,414 votes; Fremont, a projected net 8,031 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: El Paso, R +1.4, 11.8% of the vote; Douglas, D +2.0, 7.1% of the vote; Pueblo, D +0.6, 2.7% of the vote; Garfield, D +9.9, 1.0% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Victor Marx runs furthest behind in Arapahoe. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 82% of voters, 41 to 56, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.08 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 74% of voters, 38 to 59, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.69 points; Voters without a degree, 48% of voters, 42 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 2.40 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Victor Marx: Health care and Social Security voters 22 to 75, Asian and other voters 23 to 74, Corruption voters 25 to 72. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$158K cash against $725K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 24% of the 982,522 ballots in Colorado so far, against 32% for the other party. That is 4.5 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Phil Weiser's strongest asset
Cash: $725K in the bank against $158K for Victor Marx.
The map for Weiser
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | D +67.7 | 12% | +230,748 |
| Boulder | D +65.0 | 6.4% | +118,799 |
| Jefferson | D +30.4 | 11.4% | +98,754 |
| Arapahoe | D +32.7 | 10.4% | +96,048 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso | R +1.4 | 11.8% | -4,691 |
| Douglas | D +2.0 | 7.1% | +3,967 |
| Pueblo | D +0.6 | 2.7% | +472 |
| Garfield | D +9.9 | 1% | +2,683 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pueblo | D +0.6 | 2.7% | +472 |
| Mesa | R +17.7 | 2.9% | -14,414 |
| Weld | R +14.1 | 5.3% | -21,229 |
The coalition
Weiser against Marx among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters82% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.1
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202474% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.7
- Voters without a degree48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- Men48% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.4
- Immigration voters10% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties14% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.7
- Midsize counties7% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.3
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +21.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +30.0 and D +11.9
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- D +12.8
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Weiser | Marx | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.7M | $1.1M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $725K | $158K |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Colorado, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 982,522
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +7.9
- Forecast expected
- D +3.3
- Against expectation
- 4.5 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-08-05Piers Morgan host, leans other
Interviewed Republican governor nominee Victor Marx, an interview 9News' Kyle Clark said contained false claims. Source
- 2026-08-04Kyle Clark reporter
Blasted Piers Morgan's Victor Marx interview as a rehash with false and misleading claims. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.