How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Florida Governor
David Jolly vs Byron Donalds
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2513
Raised $22.0M against $149.0M for Byron Donalds.
- Cash weight 2012
$6.0M in the bank against $44.0M for Byron Donalds.
- Early vote weight 1544
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1578
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.89 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.5 points of that tide, a tailwind for David Jolly.
- Activity weight 1025
7 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $6.0M against $44.0M.
- Money weight 2587
Raised $149.0M against $22.0M for David Jolly.
- Cash weight 2088
$44.0M in the bank against $6.0M for David Jolly.
- Early vote weight 1556
Registered Republicans cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1522
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.89 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.5 points of that tide, a headwind for Byron Donalds.
- Activity weight 1025
9 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
David Jolly trails by 3.1 and wins 29% of simulations. Closing it takes about 140,841 voters switching sides, or 281,682 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +10.9 and D +5.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +4.5. Your best recent poll is Change Research at D +0.8; your worst is YouGov for N+ Univision at R +9.1. 18 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Broward, a projected net 232,208 votes; Orange, a projected net 123,163 votes; Palm Beach, a projected net 84,540 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Miami-Dade, D +0.1, 9.5% of the vote; Hillsborough, D +8.9, 6.3% of the vote; Pinellas, D +8.4, 5.1% of the vote; Duval, D +9.2, 4.4% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, David Jolly runs furthest behind in Collier, Okaloosa, Clay. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 79% of voters, 50 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.96 points; White voters, 69% of voters, 40 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.44 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 68% of voters, 47 to 51, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.38 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for David Jolly: Immigration voters 18 to 80, Midsize counties 38 to 60, White voters 40 to 58. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$6.0M cash against $44.0M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Byron Donalds's strongest asset
Cash: $44.0M in the bank against $6.0M for David Jolly.
- Protect the lead
Byron Donalds leads by 3.1 in the forecast and wins 71% of simulations. The cushion is about 281,682 votes; a one point swing is about 44,711 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +5.0 and R +10.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is R +4.5. Your best recent poll is YouGov for N+ Univision at R +9.1; your worst is Change Research at D +0.8. 18 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Lee, a projected net 78,024 votes; Collier, a projected net 56,377 votes; Santa Rosa, a projected net 42,608 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Miami-Dade, D +0.1, 9.5% of the vote; Hillsborough, D +8.9, 6.3% of the vote; Pinellas, D +8.4, 5.1% of the vote; Duval, D +9.2, 4.4% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Byron Donalds runs furthest behind in Broward, Alachua, Leon. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 79% of voters, 48 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.96 points; White voters, 69% of voters, 58 to 40, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.44 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 68% of voters, 51 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.38 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Byron Donalds: Black voters 20 to 78, Independents 25 to 71, 2024 nonvoters and third party voters 33 to 64. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$44.0M cash against $6.0M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 40% of the 3,238,651 ballots in Florida so far, against 40% for the other party. That is 6.0 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- David Jolly's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Jolly
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broward | D +32.9 | 7.9% | +232,208 |
| Orange | D +25.0 | 5.5% | +123,163 |
| Palm Beach | D +13.5 | 7% | +84,540 |
| Leon | D +36.7 | 1.5% | +50,134 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade | D +0.1 | 9.5% | +989 |
| Hillsborough | D +8.9 | 6.3% | +50,019 |
| Pinellas | D +8.4 | 5.1% | +38,249 |
| Duval | D +9.2 | 4.4% | +35,732 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collier | R +30.7 | 2.1% | -56,377 |
| Okaloosa | R +40.0 | 1% | -36,823 |
| Clay | R +35.6 | 1.1% | -35,956 |
The coalition
Jolly against Donalds among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Large counties79% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.0
- White voters69% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202468% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters without a degree60% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Midsize counties18% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.9
- White voters69% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
Top donor blocs: Billionaire megadonor, Gambling, Detention vendors, Utilities and energy, School choice and family
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +3.1
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +5.0 and R +10.9
- Polling average
- R +4.5
- Partisan lean
- R +11.7
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Point Polling | 0 | 378 LV | R +3.9 |
| YouGov for N+ Univision | 0 | 825 RV | R +9.1 |
| ActiVote | 0 | 400 LV | R +3.4 |
| University of North Florida | 0 | 1,471 LV | R +1.6 |
| co/efficient (R) | 0 | 1,014 LV | R +5.2 |
| RedBox Research (D) | 0 | 4,823 LV | R +6.8 |
| New York Times/Siena | 0 | 813 LV | R +4.7 |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 0 | 515 LV | R +6.3 |
| Change Research | 5 | 920 LV | R +0.2 |
| MDW Communications (D) | 5 | 2,351 LV | R +3.4 |
| Stetson University | 6 | 716 LV | R +7.9 |
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 8 | 836 LV | R +1.7 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Jolly | Donalds | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $22.0M | $149.0M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $6.0M | $44.0M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
The early vote
Florida, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 3,238,651
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +0.2
- Forecast expected
- D +5.9
- Against expectation
- 6.0 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-06Remy Numa analyst
Fox News Power Rankings moved Florida governor from Solid R to Likely R. Source
- 2026-09-26Joey Jones host, leans R
Asked Byron Donalds whether he needs to make a pledge to voters wary of data centers given industry donations. Source
- 2026-09-26Tomi Lahren host, leans R
Pressed Byron Donalds on Republican voters' wariness of data centers. Source
- 2026-08-23Margaret Brennan host
Interviewed Byron Donalds, who blamed Florida's measles outbreak on illegal immigration. Source
- 2026-08-17Peter Alexander host
Repeatedly fact-checked Byron Donalds on inflation and prices during and after a live interview. Source
- 2026-08-15Steve Bannon podcaster, leans R
War Room episode on the GOP governor primary hosted candidate James Fishback ahead of the vote. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-24Byron Donalds announced in Tampa
Planned rally with Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and Sen. Ashley Moody, with more speakers to be announced. Source
- 2026-10-24Byron Donalds event in Clearwater
Saturday campaign stop with Sen. Ashley Moody. Source
- 2026-10-23Byron Donalds rally in Fort Myers
Trump rally in Southwest Florida that Donalds was set to join, with Trump scheduled to speak at 2 p.m. Source
- 2026-10-20Bill Clinton event in Hollywood
Appearance at Koinonia Worship Center in Broward County. Source
- 2026-10-20Byron Donalds tour stop in Melbourne
Campaign stop on the second day of early voting, part of his Defending the Florida Dream bus tour. Source
- 2026-10-20Byron Donalds tour stop in Fort Pierce
Campaign stop on the second day of early voting, part of his Defending the Florida Dream bus tour. Source
- 2026-10-20Byron Donalds tour stop in Miami
Campaign stop on the second day of early voting, part of his Defending the Florida Dream bus tour. Source
- 2026-10-20David Jolly event in Pembroke Park
Interfaith service supporting Jolly at Koinonia Worship Center with former President Bill Clinton, who also headlined a Miami fundraiser the campaign said raised 3 million dollars. Source
- 2026-10-19David Jolly event in Orlando
News conference with former Sen. Bill Nelson calling for a pause and moratorium on new data center construction. Source
- 2026-10-12James Clyburn event in Tallahassee
Clyburn appeared with Jolly and running mate Graham in Tallahassee to court Black voters. Source
- 2026-10-08David Jolly event in Miami Gardens
Live fireside chat at Florida Memorial University with Senate candidate Angie Nixon. Source
- 2026-10-07David Jolly event in Miami
Evening meet and greet with members of the Haitian community alongside running mate Gwen Graham. Source