Election Day, Nov 3 6 daysSenate D 85%House D 97%Governors D 86%Forecast updated Oct 28
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6 DAYS OUT
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2026 forecast · Colorado Governor

Phil Weiser is all but certain to win Colorado's governorship.

Phil Weiser vs Victor Marx, an open seat. The model has Weiser ahead by 21.1 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Safe DModel D +21.1Updated October 28, 2026
Phil Weiser
Democrat
58.9%
1,671,892 projected votes
Victor Marx
Republican
37.8%
1,071,911 projected votes
100%Weiser
0%Marx
Weiser all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Weiser wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe D100% chance for Weiser
Model marginD +21.1No polls in the race
80 percent rangeD +30.0 to D +11.92,000 simulations
Projected votes2,837,438Weiser 58.9%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

Colorado Governor by county

Conejos CountyJackson CountyArchuleta CountyWashington CountyGarfield CountyRio Grande CountyMorgan CountyElbert CountyMontrose CountyOtero CountyTeller CountyPhillips CountyYuma CountyPueblo CountyAlamosa CountyBaca CountyMontezuma CountyArapahoe CountyMineral CountyDolores CountyJefferson CountyDelta CountyGrand CountySaguache CountySummit CountyGunnison CountyCostilla CountyWeld CountyLas Animas CountyRoutt CountyDouglas CountyRio Blanco CountyBroomfield CountyDenver CountyBoulder CountyLarimer CountyCrowley CountyCuster CountyEl Paso CountyGilpin CountyHuerfano CountyOuray CountyCheyenne CountyMoffat CountyPitkin CountyProwers CountySan Juan CountyLa Plata CountyHinsdale CountyKit Carson CountySan Miguel CountyClear Creek CountyKiowa CountyPark CountyLake CountyLincoln CountyAdams CountyEagle CountyLogan CountySedgwick CountyChaffee CountyFremont CountyMesa CountyBent County
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Denver County: Weiser +230,748Boulder County: Weiser +118,799Jefferson County: Weiser +98,754Arapahoe County: Weiser +96,048Larimer County: Weiser +54,100Adams County: Weiser +41,014Broomfield County: Weiser +16,437La Plata County: Weiser +9,347Eagle County: Weiser +9,039Summit County: Weiser +7,637Pitkin County: Weiser +5,632Routt County: Weiser +5,481Douglas County: Weiser +3,967Gunnison County: Weiser +3,781Garfield County: Weiser +2,683Chaffee County: Weiser +2,626San Miguel County: Weiser +2,603Clear Creek County: Weiser +1,479Ouray County: Weiser +1,049Lake County: Weiser +881Gilpin County: Weiser +800Grand County: Weiser +579Pueblo County: Weiser +472Costilla County: Weiser +444Saguache County: Weiser +407San Juan County: Weiser +189Weld County: Marx +21,229Mesa County: Marx +14,414Fremont County: Marx +8,031Elbert County: Marx +7,852Montrose County: Marx +6,219Delta County: Marx +5,405Morgan County: Marx +5,369Logan County: Marx +5,055El Paso County: Marx +4,691Teller County: Marx +4,344Moffat County: Marx +3,637Yuma County: Marx +2,738Prowers County: Marx +2,305Kit Carson County: Marx +2,184Rio Blanco County: Marx +2,092Montezuma County: Marx +1,917Otero County: Marx +1,888Washington County: Marx +1,872Lincoln County: Marx +1,526Phillips County: Marx +1,298Baca County: Marx +1,245Custer County: Marx +1,088Park County: Marx +1,019Rio Grande County: Marx +930Crowley County: Marx +824Bent County: Marx +797Cheyenne County: Marx +732Sedgwick County: Marx +653Dolores County: Marx +642Archuleta County: Marx +640Las Animas County: Marx +565Kiowa County: Marx +562Jackson County: Marx +427Conejos County: Marx +413Alamosa County: Marx +211Huerfano County: Marx +127Mineral County: Marx +36Hinsdale County: Marx +36
Weiser +714,996 net votes from 26 countiesStatewide D +21.1, a 599,983 vote marginMarx +115,013 net votes from 38 counties
Play it outMove Colorado yourself
County what ifSwing any county or region and watch the statewide result moveDemographic swingometerShift turnout and support by group, county by countyEarly vote benchmarksWhere each side needs the early vote to be by now

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Phil WeiserDemocrat · 100% to win
58.9%
Victor MarxRepublican · 0% to win
37.8%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected statewide vote

2,837,438 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Phil Weiser D1,671,89258.9%
Victor Marx R1,071,91137.8%
Greg Lopez I39,8871.4%
Frederick Osborne NL15,5590.5%
Shawn Bennett I14,4270.5%
Jeff Peckman U11,8810.4%
Stephen Hamilton ACN11,8810.4%
Total2,837,438100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims
D +47.4: 2 simulationsD +45.9: 0 simulationsD +44.4: 1 simulationsD +42.9: 3 simulationsD +41.4: 4 simulationsD +39.9: 4 simulationsD +38.4: 7 simulationsD +36.9: 12 simulationsD +35.4: 17 simulationsD +33.9: 25 simulationsD +32.4: 51 simulationsD +30.9: 68 simulationsD +29.4: 84 simulationsD +27.9: 100 simulationsD +26.4: 133 simulationsD +24.9: 163 simulationsD +23.4: 175 simulationsD +21.9: 170 simulationsD +20.4: 181 simulationsD +18.9: 168 simulationsD +17.4: 136 simulationsD +15.9: 114 simulationsD +14.4: 103 simulationsD +12.9: 67 simulationsD +11.4: 73 simulationsD +9.9: 49 simulationsD +8.4: 31 simulationsD +6.9: 12 simulationsD +5.4: 22 simulationsD +3.9: 7 simulationsD +2.4: 8 simulationsD +0.9: 3 simulationsR +0.6: 1 simulationsR +2.1: 2 simulationsR +3.6: 1 simulationsR +5.1: 0 simulationsR +6.6: 1 simulationsR +8.1: 0 simulationsR +9.6: 0 simulationsR +11.1: 2 simulationsD +48.1R +11.9

80 percent of simulations fall between D +30.0 and D +11.9. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%100% Weiser0% Marx18 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

Polls of the race

PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageNo polls

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Weiser +21.1
Chance of winning
Phil Weiser100%
Victor Marx0%
Simulated vote
Phil Weiser58.9%
Victor Marx37.8%
Greg Lopez1.4%
Frederick Osborne0.6%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanD +11.3
FundamentalsD +21.2
With pollsD +21.1

Who has endorsed

39 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Phil Weiser33
  • Federico PeñaFormer Energy and Transportation Secretarysource
  • Jason CrowU.S. Rep., CO-06source
  • Joe NeguseU.S. Rep., CO-02source
  • Brittany PettersenU.S. Rep., CO-07source
  • Michael BennetU.S. Senator, Colorado, primary rivalsource
  • Roy RomerFormer Governor of Colorado, honorary campaign chairsource
  • Tim WirthFormer U.S. Senator, Coloradosource
  • Ed PerlmutterFormer U.S. Rep., CO-07, campaign co-chairsource
Victor Marx6
  • Lauren BoebertU.S. Rep., CO-04source
  • Michael FlynnFormer National Security Advisorsource
  • Gabe EvansU.S. Rep., CO-08source
  • Derek WolfeFormer NFL playersource
  • Colorado Republican PartyState partysource
  • Ted NugentRock musiciansource
On the air

Piers Morgan: Interviewed Republican governor nominee Victor Marx, an interview 9News' Kyle Clark said contained false claims. source

Kyle Clark: Blasted Piers Morgan's Victor Marx interview as a rehash with false and misleading claims. source

Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +25R +25Partisan leanthe state's baselineD +11.3Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesD +21.2With pollsno pollsD +21.1

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareWeiserMarx
GenderMen48%54.742.0
Women52%63.033.7
Age18 to 2916%64.232.6
30 to 4425%58.038.8
45 to 6433%57.639.1
65+26%58.738.0
RaceWhite82%56.040.7
Black3%81.515.5
Latino10%68.228.5
Asian and other6%73.822.9
Race and genderWhite men38%50.746.1
White women44%60.835.9
Black men2%77.819.3
Black women2%84.812.3
Latino men6%65.531.2
Latino women4%72.024.8
All other races6%73.822.9

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

64 counties
CountyWeiserMarxOtherTotalMargin
Statewide1,671,8941,071,91193,6332,837,438D +21.1
Denver County281,61350,8658,507340,985D +67.7
El Paso County158,826163,51712,349334,692R +1.4
Jefferson County206,487107,73310,362324,582D +30.4
Arapahoe County190,49594,4478,791293,733D +32.7
Adams County117,52776,5137,644201,684D +20.3
Douglas County99,82395,8565,208200,887D +2.0
Larimer County123,10369,0036,539198,645D +27.2
Boulder County148,32129,5224,924182,767D +65.0
Weld County61,81883,0476,019150,884R +14.1
Mesa County31,87846,2923,24781,417R +17.7
Pueblo County36,72336,2513,35076,324D +0.6
Broomfield County28,21311,7761,19141,180D +39.9
La Plata County20,29610,94996432,209D +29.0
Garfield County14,45311,77092127,144D +9.9
Eagle County16,6897,65064924,988D +36.2
Fremont County7,12515,1561,11923,400R +34.3
Montrose County7,93114,15075122,832R +27.2
Delta County5,63511,04071017,385R +31.1
Elbert County3,91411,76661916,299R +48.2
Summit County11,5563,91944615,921D +48.0
Routt County9,8714,39036614,627D +37.5
Teller County4,8669,21049414,570R +29.8
Montezuma County5,5467,46363913,648R +14.1
Chaffee County7,3374,71143612,484D +21.0
Morgan County2,9788,34750611,831R +45.4
Park County4,6275,64644910,722R +9.5
Pitkin County7,8182,18620310,207D +55.2
Gunnison County6,6932,9123579,962D +38.0
Logan County1,9597,0145109,483R +53.3
Grand County4,5193,9402988,757D +6.6
Archuleta County3,6364,2762868,198R +7.8
Otero County2,8934,7813878,061R +23.4
Las Animas County3,1533,7183017,172R +7.9
Alamosa County3,1423,3533206,815R +3.1
Moffat County1,0794,7162416,036R +60.3
Clear Creek County3,3971,9182095,524D +26.8
Rio Grande County2,1083,0383445,490R +16.9
Prowers County1,1003,4052914,796R +48.1
San Miguel County3,4418381374,416D +58.9
Yuma County6583,3962094,263R +64.2
Huerfano County1,8772,0041624,043R +3.1
Conejos County1,5591,9721193,650R +11.3
Gilpin County2,0991,2991583,556D +22.5
Ouray County2,2061,157863,449D +30.4
Lake County2,0681,1871723,427D +25.7
Custer County1,0862,1741153,375R +32.2
Kit Carson County5042,6881193,311R +66.0
Rio Blanco County5372,6291433,309R +63.2
Saguache County1,6601,2531763,089D +13.2
Washington County2902,1621082,560R +73.1
Lincoln County3961,9221222,440R +62.5
Bent County6051,4021432,150R +37.1
Phillips County3691,667792,115R +61.4
Baca County2361,4811211,838R +67.7
Costilla County1,089645781,812D +24.5
Crowley County4331,2571191,809R +45.5
Dolores County307949881,344R +47.8
Sedgwick County252905551,212R +53.9
Cheyenne County8781946952R +76.9
Kiowa County8064254776R +72.4
Jackson County14457124739R +57.8
Hinsdale County23827418530R +6.8
Mineral County21425021485R +7.4
San Juan County31112214447D +42.3

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

On Point on YouTubeThe Colorado governor race, explained on YouTubeForecast breakdowns, the polls and election night coverage on the On Point channel.Subscribe
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.