How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Texas Senate
James Talarico vs Ken Paxton
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2587
Raised $128.8M against $19.5M for Ken Paxton.
- Cash weight 2081
$21.5M in the bank against $4.9M for Ken Paxton. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1524
Outside groups spent $79.8M helping James Talarico and $251.8M helping Ken Paxton.
- National tide weight 1577
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.88 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for James Talarico.
- Activity weight 10100
10 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 26 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $4.8M in Google political ads this cycle. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
- Money weight 2513
Raised $19.5M against $128.8M for James Talarico.
- Cash weight 2019
$4.9M in the bank against $21.5M for James Talarico. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1576
Outside groups spent $251.8M helping Ken Paxton and $79.8M helping James Talarico.
- National tide weight 1523
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.88 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Ken Paxton.
- Activity weight 10100
12 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 18 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $435K in Google political ads this cycle. 1 story on the On Point news desk in two weeks.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
James Talarico leads by 1.0 in the forecast and wins 57% of simulations. The cushion is about 100,002 votes; a one point swing is about 50,001 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +5.3 and D +7.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +2.1. Your best recent poll is New York Times/Siena at D +5.3; your worst is InsiderAdvantage at R +0.9. 31 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Travis, a projected net 311,617 votes; Harris, a projected net 306,551 votes; Dallas, a projected net 304,668 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Tarrant, D +9.8, 7.2% of the vote; Collin, D +2.8, 4.4% of the vote; Denton, D +0.2, 3.8% of the vote; Brazoria, R +8.8, 1.4% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, James Talarico runs furthest behind in Montgomery, Brazoria, Galveston. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 68% of voters, 58 to 39, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.42 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 54 to 44, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.11 points; White voters, 61% of voters, 38 to 60, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.04 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for James Talarico: Immigration voters 20 to 78, Small counties 24 to 74, Midsize counties 34 to 63. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$21.5M cash against $4.9M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Ken Paxton's strongest asset
Activity: 12 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Close the gap
Ken Paxton trails by 1.0 and wins 43% of simulations. Closing it takes about 50,001 voters switching sides, or 100,002 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +7.2 and R +5.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +2.1. Your best recent poll is InsiderAdvantage at R +0.9; your worst is New York Times/Siena at D +5.3. 31 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Montgomery, a projected net 93,139 votes; Parker, a projected net 44,515 votes; Smith, a projected net 31,316 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Tarrant, D +9.8, 7.2% of the vote; Collin, D +2.8, 4.4% of the vote; Denton, D +0.2, 3.8% of the vote; Brazoria, R +8.8, 1.4% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Ken Paxton runs furthest behind in Hidalgo, Cameron, El Paso. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: Large counties, 68% of voters, 39 to 58, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.42 points; Voters who find daily costs hard to afford, 62% of voters, 44 to 54, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.11 points; White voters, 61% of voters, 60 to 38, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.04 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Ken Paxton: Black voters 20 to 78, Independents 23 to 72, Health care and Social Security voters 30 to 67. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$4.9M cash against $21.5M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- James Talarico's strongest asset
Activity: 10 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
The map for Talarico
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis | D +56.5 | 5.5% | +311,617 |
| Harris | D +22.1 | 13.9% | +306,551 |
| Dallas | D +39.2 | 7.8% | +304,668 |
| Bexar | D +26.8 | 6.9% | +183,727 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrant | D +9.8 | 7.2% | +70,311 |
| Collin | D +2.8 | 4.4% | +12,149 |
| Denton | D +0.2 | 3.8% | +757 |
| Brazoria | R +8.8 | 1.4% | -11,948 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montgomery | R +36.7 | 2.5% | -93,139 |
| Brazoria | R +8.8 | 1.4% | -11,948 |
| Galveston | R +15.4 | 1.3% | -20,782 |
The coalition
Talarico against Paxton among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- Large counties68% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.4
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- White voters61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202459% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters11% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.5
- Small counties13% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.6
- Midsize counties19% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.9
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- Main message. Ending billionaire control of politics and lowering costs, framed through faith and his record as a teacher; he calls Paxton "the most corrupt politician in Texas.". Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. Culture war positions, led by his comments defending transgender Texans, packaged as "for they/them, not you," plus his vote on a China land sale ban. Source
- Strongest coalition. In the TPOR poll fielded October 15 to 18, he led 51 to 47 overall, with independents 66 to 28, Black voters 87 to 11, Latino voters 60 to 39 and women 54 to 47; Paxton led white voters, men, and voters without a degree. Source
- Recent event. Disclosure on October 15 and 16 that Musk was the money behind $158M routed through SLF to Texas PAC, which Talarico has turned into an anticorruption push aimed at both Paxton and Musk. Source
- Trend. TPOR's lead for him narrowed from six points in August to four in October, with men shifting to Paxton since September. Source
Top donor blocs: Small donors, Billionaire megadonor, Ideological groups
- Main message. Paxton runs as the Trump aligned conservative and frames Talarico as far left; adviser Nick Maddux cites higher taxes, boys in girls' sports and defunding the police. Source
- Biggest vulnerability as opponents frame it. Corruption: the securities case, the 2023 impeachment, his real estate, and the disclosure that left out rental income and mortgages. Source
- Strongest coalition. White voters 60 to 38, men 50 to 47 and voters without a college degree 50 to 47 in the TPOR poll of October 15 to 18, with men moving toward him since September. Source
- Recent event. Disclosure that Musk funded $158M of the SLF rescue through Texas PAC, after Paxton spent little on his own ads all summer. Source
- State of race. TPOR has him down 51 to 47; a Paxton internal showed him up 3, and the Tribune tracker had Talarico up 2 on October 1. Source
Top donor blocs: Billionaire megadonor, Party and leadership, Trump world
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +1.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +7.2 and R +5.3
- Polling average
- D +2.1
- Partisan lean
- R +12.4
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/YouGov | 0 | 1,458 LV | D +1.1 |
| On Point Polling | 0 | 385 LV | D +4.6 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 0 | 1,398 LV | R +0.3 |
| Emerson College | 0 | 1,000 LV | D +2.8 |
| ActiVote | 0 | 400 LV | D +2.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 0 | 965 LV | R +0.5 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | 0 | 969 LV | D +2.3 |
| VoteHub/Verasight | 0 | 509 LV | D +2.4 |
| Univision/YouGov | 0 | 1,000 RV | D +3.9 |
| ActiVote | 1 | 400 LV | D +3.8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1 | 800 LV | R +0.9 |
| University of Houston Hobby School | 1 | 2,000 LV | D +2.0 |
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Talarico | Paxton | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $128.8M | $19.5M |
| Spent | $47.0M | $14.6M |
| Cash on hand | $21.5M | $4.9M |
| Outside money for | $79.8M | $251.8M |
| Google ads | $4.8M | $435K |
- Texas PAC against James Talarico$148.6M
- MAGA Inc. against James Talarico$30.4M
- America PAC against James Talarico$26.6M
- Lone Star Rising PAC against Ken Paxton$21.6M
- Lone Star Liberty PAC against James Talarico$20.1M
- Texas Forever against Ken Paxton$10.9M
- Lower Costs Now against Ken Paxton$9.9M
- Defend US PAC against James Talarico$9.4M
- All advertisers, ad spending plus reservations, more than Source$500.0M
- Texas PAC, initial broadcast TV buy 2026-09-11 Source$51.3M
- MAGA Inc., ad time buy early Sept Source$10.0M
- Republican groups total since late May runoff through Sept reservations Source$81.1M
- Democratic side total, nearly all Talarico campaign, same period Source$43.7M
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$74.1M
The early vote
Texas, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 4,554,958
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +8.0
- Forecast expected
- R +9.1
- Against expectation
- 1.1 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026, date not reportedDon Henley celebrity, leans D
Gave $250,000 to Lone Star Rising, a super PAC backing Talarico, plus individual contributions. Source
- 2026-10-11Elon Musk business, leans R
Posted on X criticizing Talarico and helped spread a false claim about his campaign absence; Talarico said he had the flu. Source
- 2026-10The Chicks celebrity, leans D
The band endorsed Talarico on Instagram. Source
- 2026-09-25Bill Nye celebrity, leans D
Appeared in a video launching the Teachers for Talarico effort. Source
- 2026-09-24Steve Bannon podcaster, leans R
On War Room, warned that Ken Paxton has a real fight against James Talarico and told Republicans to assume they are losing. Source
- 2026-09-10Damon Lindelof celebrity, leans D
Hosted a Los Angeles fundraiser for Talarico with his wife. Source
- 2026-09 to 2026-10Elon Musk business, leans R
Gave $158 million to Senate Leadership Fund, which routed large sums to a pro Paxton Texas PAC, plus $10 million to Lone Star Liberty PAC. Source
- 2026-09Joe Rogan podcaster, leans other
On an episode with Ron White, praised Talarico on one issue, questioned some of his positions, and said he did not know enough about Paxton; no endorsement. Source
- 2026-09Ron White celebrity, leans D
The comedian voiced support for Democrat James Talarico while a guest on The Joe Rogan Experience. Source
- 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-29Mark Cuban business, leans D
Called Talarico honest on the Pivot podcast, then joined him onstage in Fort Worth, short of a formal endorsement. Source
- 2026-08-06Mark Halperin reporter
Told Megyn Kelly that if the election were held today James Talarico would beat Ken Paxton unless Republicans change the race's trajectory. Source
- 2026-08-06Megyn Kelly host, leans R
Hosted Mark Halperin and called his view that Talarico is on track to beat Paxton 'stunning', noting polls show Talarico ahead. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-11-02James Talarico announced in Austin
Planned final stop of the Clear Eyes, Full Hearts tour on the night before Election Day. Source
- 2026-11-02Ken Paxton announced in San Antonio
Planned finale of the Come and Take It bus tour at the Alamo on the eve of Election Day. Source
- 2026-10-29JD Vance announced in Weatherford
Announced Thursday rally at JRJ Construction on Ric Williamson Memorial Highway, Vance to speak at 1:50 p.m., hosted by the Texas GOP. Source
- 2026-10-29JD Vance announced in Corpus Christi
Announced Thursday visit at the Omni Corpus Christi Hotel per local media reports, details not yet released. Source
- 2026-10-27Donald Trump announced in Lubbock
2:30 p.m. rally on his fourth Texas trip; one Fox blog listed Oct 20 instead. Source
- 2026-10-27Donald Trump announced in Corpus Christi
announced Tuesday rally that replaced the planned Waco stop, doors 10:30 a.m., Trump expected to speak at 2 p.m., venue not yet announced. Source
- 2026-10-27Ken Paxton announced in Corpus Christi
Announced rally with President Donald Trump to boost GOP turnout, remarks set for 2 p.m. local time. Source
- 2026-10-27Ken Paxton announced in Lubbock
Announced evening rally with President Donald Trump at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center, Trump remarks at 6 p.m. Source
- 2026-10-27James Talarico announced in Amarillo
Announced meet and greet from 2:30 to 4 p.m. at the Texas Panhandle Democratic Headquarters on SW 10th Street. Source
- 2026-10-27James Talarico announced in Lubbock
Announced 7 p.m. community rally at the Frazier Alumni Pavilion on the Texas Tech campus, the same night as the Trump rally in town. Source
- 2026-10-26Ken Paxton tour stop in Amarillo
Monday night Come and Take It tour stop at The Big Texan. Source
- 2026-10-26James Talarico rally in El Paso
Clear Eyes, Full Hearts tour rally set for 6 to 8 p.m., venue not disclosed in advance. Source