Trump heads to Lubbock and Waco for Ken Paxton as Texas Senate polls stay within a few points
Recent surveys range from a tie to a five point lead for James Talarico. The president told reporters Paxton had "gone way up in the poll."
President Trump was set to hold rallies in Lubbock and Waco on Tuesday for Republican Ken Paxton, his third visit to Texas this month, Newsweek reported. Trump told reporters Paxton had "gone way up in the poll," according to Newsweek. Paxton, the state attorney general, faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico for the seat held by Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the Republican primary to Paxton, Fox News reported.
Polls taken in mid October show a close race. A Fox News poll of 1,398 likely voters taken Oct. 15 to 19 had the two tied at 49%, after Talarico led 51% to 49% a month earlier, and found Gov. Greg Abbott ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa 52% to 47%. Fox News said Trump's job approval in Texas stood at 45% approve and 54% disapprove. A Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 969 likely voters taken Oct. 15 to 18 had Talarico at 51%, Paxton at 47% and Libertarian Ted Brown at 2%, FOX 7 Austin reported. Newsweek also listed an Emerson College survey with Talarico ahead 48% to 46% and a Cook Political Report survey taken Oct. 9 to 13 with Talarico ahead 49% to 44%, and put the RealClearPolitics average at Talarico plus 1.8 points.
Rice University political scientist Mark Jones told Newsweek, "If Paxton doesn't do better than he's doing right now in the suburban areas, he may very well lose." Talarico has argued, "We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis," Newsweek reported. ABC13 Houston cautioned that in each of the last three big statewide races, final Texas polls missed the result by 3.6 to 4.7 points, and that Harris County also set early voting records in 2018, a year Democrats lost statewide.
What is established
- Fox News poll, Oct. 15 to 19: Paxton 49%, Talarico 49% among likely voters.
- Texas Public Opinion Research, Oct. 15 to 18: Talarico 51%, Paxton 47%, Brown 2%.
- Newsweek put the RealClearPolitics average at Talarico plus 1.8 points.
- Fox News found Hispanic voters backing Talarico 64% to 34%.
- Early voting in Texas runs through Oct. 30.
What each side says
Paxton has "gone way up in the poll."
"We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis."
How it was covered
Left No reports
Center 3 reports
Newsweek gathered the latest polls into a near toss up and quoted analysts on Paxton's suburban weakness; ABC13 Houston warned that Texas polls and early vote records have misled before; FOX 7 Austin led with Talarico's narrowing lead.
Right 1 report
Fox News framed its own poll as a race "galloping toward a photo finish," crediting Paxton with consolidating conservatives and former Cornyn voters.