How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Wisconsin WI-08
Rick Crosson vs Tony Wied
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2510
Raised $142K against $1.3M for Tony Wied.
- Cash weight 207
$46K in the bank against $591K for Tony Wied. As of 09/30/2026.
- National tide weight 1576
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.82 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.5 points of that tide, a tailwind for Rick Crosson.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $46K against $591K.
- Money weight 2590
Raised $1.3M against $142K for Rick Crosson.
- Cash weight 2093
$591K in the bank against $46K for Rick Crosson. As of 09/30/2026.
- National tide weight 1524
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.82 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.5 points of that tide, a headwind for Tony Wied.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Rick Crosson trails by 2.9 and wins 32% of simulations. Closing it takes about 5,470 voters switching sides, or 10,941 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +11.2 and D +5.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$46K cash against $591K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Tony Wied's strongest asset
Cash: $591K in the bank against $46K for Rick Crosson.
- Protect the lead
Tony Wied leads by 2.9 in the forecast and wins 68% of simulations. The cushion is about 10,941 votes; a one point swing is about 1,880 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +5.6 and R +11.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$591K cash against $46K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Rick Crosson's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +2.9
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +5.6 and R +11.2
- Polling average
- n/a
- Partisan lean
- R +17.3
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Crosson | Wied | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $142K | $1.3M |
| Spent | $97K | $760K |
| Cash on hand | $46K | $591K |
| Outside money for | $0 | $0 |
| Google ads | $0 | $0 |
The early vote
Wisconsin, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 713,940
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +24.4
- Forecast expected
- D +25.6
- Against expectation
- 1.2 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.