How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Washington WA-03
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs John Braun
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2575
Raised $8.8M against $3.0M for John Braun.
- Cash weight 2062
$2.1M in the bank against $1.3M for John Braun. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1542
Outside groups spent $3.6M helping Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and $5.1M helping John Braun.
- National tide weight 1576
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.82 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.5 points of that tide, a tailwind for Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
- Activity weight 1025
$372K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2525
Raised $3.0M against $8.8M for Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
- Cash weight 2038
$1.3M in the bank against $2.1M for Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1559
Outside groups spent $5.1M helping John Braun and $3.6M helping Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
- National tide weight 1524
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.82 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.5 points of that tide, a headwind for John Braun.
- Activity weight 1050
2 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $177K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez leads by 2.3 in the forecast and wins 64% of simulations. The cushion is about 6,335 votes; a one point swing is about 1,371 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +5.1 and D +10.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.1M cash against $1.3M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- John Braun's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $5.1M helping John Braun and $3.6M helping Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
- Close the gap
John Braun trails by 2.3 and wins 36% of simulations. Closing it takes about 3,168 voters switching sides, or 6,335 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +10.3 and R +5.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.3M cash against $2.1M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +2.3
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +10.3 and R +5.1
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +5.1
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Perez | Braun | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $8.8M | $3.0M |
| Spent | $4.3M | $1.9M |
| Cash on hand | $2.1M | $1.3M |
| Outside money for | $3.6M | $5.1M |
| Google ads | $373K | $177K |
The early vote
Washington, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 1,009,231
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +47.2
- Forecast expected
- D +32.8
- Against expectation
- 14.4 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watch