How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Texas TX-35
Johnny Garcia vs Carlos De La Cruz
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2550
Raised $1.9M against $1.9M for Carlos De La Cruz.
- Cash weight 2040
$323K in the bank against $476K for Carlos De La Cruz. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1546
Outside groups spent $6.7M helping Johnny Garcia and $7.7M helping Carlos De La Cruz.
- National tide weight 1581
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.04 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.6 points of that tide, a tailwind for Johnny Garcia.
- Activity weight 1025
$5K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2550
Raised $1.9M against $1.9M for Johnny Garcia.
- Cash weight 2060
$476K in the bank against $323K for Johnny Garcia. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1554
Outside groups spent $7.7M helping Carlos De La Cruz and $6.7M helping Johnny Garcia.
- National tide weight 1519
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.04 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.6 points of that tide, a headwind for Carlos De La Cruz.
- Activity weight 1075
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 2 mentions on shows and podcasts in two weeks. $18K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Johnny Garcia leads by 1.7 in the forecast and wins 60% of simulations. The cushion is about 4,549 votes; a one point swing is about 1,315 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +6.6 and D +10.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$323K cash against $476K. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Carlos De La Cruz's strongest asset
Activity: 3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Close the gap
Carlos De La Cruz trails by 1.7 and wins 40% of simulations. Closing it takes about 2,274 voters switching sides, or 4,549 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +10.1 and R +6.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$476K cash against $323K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Johnny Garcia's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +1.7
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +10.1 and R +6.6
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +7.5
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Garcia | Cruz | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.9M | $1.9M |
| Spent | $609K | $1.4M |
| Cash on hand | $323K | $476K |
| Outside money for | $6.7M | $7.7M |
| Google ads | $5K | $18K |
The early vote
Texas, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 4,554,958
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +8.0
- Forecast expected
- R +9.1
- Against expectation
- 1.1 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-20Nathan Gonzales analyst
Inside Elections moved Rep. Monica De La Cruz's Texas 15th District from Tilt Republican to Toss Up. Source
- 2026-10-14Rick Tyler commentator, leans R
The former Cruz spokesman gave a brutal midterm forecast on CNN centered on the Paxton vs Talarico race. Source
- 2026-08-30Kristen Welker host
Asked Ted Cruz whether he agrees with a GOP colleague that Paxton is lazy. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-13Mike Johnson rally in Corpus Christi
Johnson held a Corpus Christi rally with South Texas House candidates; AP later confirmed he campaigned in southern Texas that week. Source
- 2026-10-07Donald Trump rally in San Antonio
Freeman Coliseum rally with Paxton. Source
- 2026-10-01Ted Cruz rally in Denton
Cruz is listed among participants at Trump's Peterbilt Motors stop with Paxton. Source
- 2026-08-27Mike Johnson event in San Patricio County
Johnson joined Rep. Monica De La Cruz on the Thursday morning of his South Texas tour. Source
- 2026-08-26Mike Johnson rally in San Antonio
Johnson rallied at a South Side VFW post for De La Cruz, calling the district the whole enchilada. Source