How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Montana MT-01
Sam Forstag vs Aaron Flint
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2558
Raised $3.7M against $2.6M for Aaron Flint.
- Cash weight 2035
$550K in the bank against $1.0M for Aaron Flint. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1540
Outside groups spent $3.8M helping Sam Forstag and $5.7M helping Aaron Flint.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.99 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.9 points of that tide, a tailwind for Sam Forstag.
- Activity weight 1025
$173K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2542
Raised $2.6M against $3.7M for Sam Forstag.
- Cash weight 2065
$1.0M in the bank against $550K for Sam Forstag. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1560
Outside groups spent $5.7M helping Aaron Flint and $3.8M helping Sam Forstag.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.99 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.9 points of that tide, a headwind for Aaron Flint.
- Activity weight 1050
3 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. $60K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Sam Forstag leads by 0.0 in the forecast and wins 50% of simulations. The cushion is about 85 votes; a one point swing is about 1,414 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +8.7 and D +8.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$550K cash against $1.0M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Aaron Flint's strongest asset
Cash: $1.0M in the bank against $550K for Sam Forstag.
- Close the gap
Aaron Flint trails by 0.0 and wins 50% of simulations. Closing it takes about 42 voters switching sides, or 85 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +8.5 and R +8.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.0M cash against $550K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Sam Forstag's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- Even
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +8.5 and R +8.7
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +11.3
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Forstag | Flint | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.7M | $2.6M |
| Spent | $833K | $1.6M |
| Cash on hand | $550K | $1.0M |
| Outside money for | $3.8M | $5.7M |
| Google ads | $173K | $60K |
The early vote
Montana, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 225,698
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +14.3
- Forecast expected
- D +13.4
- Against expectation
- 0.9 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-26JD Vance event in Belgrade
Monday campaign stop backing Montana Republicans, attacking House candidate Sam Forstag. Source
- 2026-10-20Mike Johnson event in Bozeman
Johnson stumped in Bozeman for Flint in the western Montana House race; the cited page is the advance notice. Source
- 2026-10-14Donald Trump rally in Kalispell
Majestic Valley Arena rally, same day as the Arizona stop. Source