How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Missouri MO-02
Fred Wellman vs Ann Wagner
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2532
Raised $2.0M against $4.1M for Ann Wagner.
- Cash weight 205
$242K in the bank against $4.2M for Ann Wagner. As of 07/15/2026.
- Air cover weight 15100
Outside groups spent $59K helping Fred Wellman and $0 helping Ann Wagner.
- National tide weight 1577
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.88 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Fred Wellman.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $242K against $4.2M.
- Money weight 2568
Raised $4.1M against $2.0M for Fred Wellman.
- Cash weight 2095
$4.2M in the bank against $242K for Fred Wellman. As of 07/15/2026.
- Air cover weight 150
Outside groups spent $0 helping Ann Wagner and $59K helping Fred Wellman.
- National tide weight 1523
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.88 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 12.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Ann Wagner.
- Activity weight 1025
$48K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Fred Wellman leads by 0.3 in the forecast and wins 52% of simulations. The cushion is about 662 votes; a one point swing is about 1,183 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +7.5 and D +8.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$242K cash against $4.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Ann Wagner's strongest asset
Cash: $4.2M in the bank against $242K for Fred Wellman.
- Close the gap
Ann Wagner trails by 0.3 and wins 48% of simulations. Closing it takes about 331 voters switching sides, or 662 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +8.3 and R +7.5. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$4.2M cash against $242K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Fred Wellman's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $59K helping Fred Wellman and $0 helping Ann Wagner.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +0.3
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +8.3 and R +7.5
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +9.6
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 07/15/2026| Wellman | Wagner | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $2.0M | $4.1M |
| Spent | $914K | $2.4M |
| Cash on hand | $242K | $4.2M |
| Outside money for | $59K | $0 |
| Google ads | $0 | $48K |
The early vote
Missouri, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 54,608
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +18.6
- Forecast expected
- R +16.1
- Against expectation
- 2.5 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.