How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Michigan MI-04
Sean McCann vs Bill Huizenga
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2545
Raised $4.3M against $5.4M for Bill Huizenga.
- Cash weight 2042
$1.3M in the bank against $1.9M for Bill Huizenga. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1550
Outside groups spent $8.2M helping Sean McCann and $8.2M helping Bill Huizenga.
- National tide weight 1576
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.81 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.3 points of that tide, a tailwind for Sean McCann.
- Activity weight 1025
1 campaign stop by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
- Money weight 2556
Raised $5.4M against $4.3M for Sean McCann.
- Cash weight 2058
$1.9M in the bank against $1.3M for Sean McCann. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1550
Outside groups spent $8.2M helping Bill Huizenga and $8.2M helping Sean McCann.
- National tide weight 1524
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.81 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 11.3 points of that tide, a headwind for Bill Huizenga.
- Activity weight 1025
$101K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Sean McCann trails by 2.8 and wins 31% of simulations. Closing it takes about 5,410 voters switching sides, or 10,820 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +9.8 and D +3.9. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.3M cash against $1.9M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Bill Huizenga's strongest asset
Cash: $1.9M in the bank against $1.3M for Sean McCann.
- Protect the lead
Bill Huizenga leads by 2.8 in the forecast and wins 69% of simulations. The cushion is about 10,820 votes; a one point swing is about 1,912 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +3.9 and R +9.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.9M cash against $1.3M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Sean McCann's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +2.8
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +3.9 and R +9.8
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +6.6
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| McCann | Huizenga | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $4.3M | $5.4M |
| Spent | $3.0M | $3.6M |
| Cash on hand | $1.3M | $1.9M |
| Outside money for | $8.2M | $8.2M |
| Google ads | $0 | $101K |
The early vote
Michigan, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 1,197,558
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +34.7
- Forecast expected
- D +33.5
- Against expectation
- 1.2 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-10-14Pete Buttigieg rally in Kalamazoo
Rally for the Democratic nominee against Rep. Bill Huizenga. Source