How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Kentucky KY-06
Zach Dembo vs Ralph Alvarado
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2557
Raised $2.9M against $2.2M for Ralph Alvarado.
- Cash weight 2055
$491K in the bank against $398K for Ralph Alvarado. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1553
Outside groups spent $2.1M helping Zach Dembo and $1.9M helping Ralph Alvarado.
- Early vote weight 765
Registered Democrats cast 57% of the 42,258 ballots in Kentucky so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 2.7 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1579
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.93 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.0 points of that tide, a tailwind for Zach Dembo.
- Activity weight 1025
$64K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2543
Raised $2.2M against $2.9M for Zach Dembo.
- Cash weight 2045
$398K in the bank against $491K for Zach Dembo. As of 06/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1547
Outside groups spent $1.9M helping Ralph Alvarado and $2.1M helping Zach Dembo.
- Early vote weight 735
Registered Republicans cast 42% of the 42,258 ballots in Kentucky so far, against 57% for the other party. That is 2.7 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.93 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.0 points of that tide, a headwind for Ralph Alvarado.
- Activity weight 1025
$48K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Zach Dembo leads by 3.2 in the forecast and wins 69% of simulations. The cushion is about 8,885 votes; a one point swing is about 1,401 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +5.6 and D +11.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$491K cash against $398K. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 57% of the 42,258 ballots in Kentucky so far, against 42% for the other party. That is 2.7 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Ralph Alvarado's strongest asset
Air cover: Outside groups spent $1.9M helping Ralph Alvarado and $2.1M helping Zach Dembo.
- Close the gap
Ralph Alvarado trails by 3.2 and wins 31% of simulations. Closing it takes about 4,442 voters switching sides, or 8,885 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +11.6 and R +5.6. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$398K cash against $491K. Roughly even money; the air war will be decided by outside groups and earned media.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 42% of the 42,258 ballots in Kentucky so far, against 57% for the other party. That is 2.7 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Zach Dembo's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +3.2
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +11.6 and R +5.6
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +14.6
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 06/30/2026| Dembo | Alvarado | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $2.9M | $2.2M |
| Spent | $973K | $1.1M |
| Cash on hand | $491K | $398K |
| Outside money for | $2.1M | $1.9M |
| Google ads | $64K | $48K |
The early vote
Kentucky, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 42,258
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +14.8
- Forecast expected
- D +17.5
- Against expectation
- 2.7 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.