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Arkansas AR-02
Chris Jones vs French Hill
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2526
Raised $1.8M against $5.0M for French Hill.
- Cash weight 2014
$281K in the bank against $1.7M for French Hill. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1530
Outside groups spent $1.0M helping Chris Jones and $2.5M helping French Hill.
- Early vote weight 758
Registered Democrats cast 7% of the 280,452 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 9% for the other party. That is 27.1 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1579
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.94 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.2 points of that tide, a tailwind for Chris Jones.
- Activity weight 1025
$700 in Google political ads this cycle.
- −4 Outmatched five to one in cash. $281K against $1.7M.
- Money weight 2574
Raised $5.0M against $1.8M for Chris Jones.
- Cash weight 2086
$1.7M in the bank against $281K for Chris Jones. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1570
Outside groups spent $2.5M helping French Hill and $1.0M helping Chris Jones.
- Early vote weight 742
Registered Republicans cast 9% of the 280,452 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 7% for the other party. That is 27.1 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1521
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 0.94 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 13.2 points of that tide, a headwind for French Hill.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Close the gap
Chris Jones trails by 1.5 and wins 40% of simulations. Closing it takes about 1,839 voters switching sides, or 3,679 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +9.4 and D +6.1. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$281K cash against $1.7M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 7% of the 280,452 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 9% for the other party. That is 27.1 points better for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- French Hill's strongest asset
Cash: $1.7M in the bank against $281K for Chris Jones.
- Protect the lead
French Hill leads by 1.5 in the forecast and wins 60% of simulations. The cushion is about 3,679 votes; a one point swing is about 1,226 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +6.1 and R +9.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.7M cash against $281K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 9% of the 280,452 ballots in Arkansas so far, against 7% for the other party. That is 27.1 points worse for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Chris Jones's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- R +1.5
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +6.1 and R +9.4
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +16.3
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Jones | Hill | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $1.8M | $5.0M |
| Spent | $1.5M | $4.7M |
| Cash on hand | $281K | $1.7M |
| Outside money for | $1.0M | $2.5M |
| Google ads | $700 | $0 |
The early vote
Arkansas, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 280,452
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- R +1.8
- Forecast expected
- R +28.9
- Against expectation
- 27.1 points better for Democrats
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.