How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Wisconsin Governor
David Crowley vs Tom Tiffany
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2522
Raised $12.0M against $43.0M for Tom Tiffany.
- Cash weight 2019
$2.8M in the bank against $12.0M for Tom Tiffany.
- National tide weight 1572
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.66 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 9.2 points of that tide, a tailwind for David Crowley.
- Activity weight 1050
9 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days. 1 mention on shows and podcasts in two weeks.
- Money weight 2578
Raised $43.0M against $12.0M for David Crowley.
- Cash weight 2081
$12.0M in the bank against $2.8M for David Crowley.
- National tide weight 1528
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This race moves 0.66 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 9.2 points of that tide, a headwind for Tom Tiffany.
- Activity weight 1025
27 campaign stops by the candidate or surrogates in 30 days.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
David Crowley leads by 5.0 in the forecast and wins 79% of simulations. The cushion is about 149,098 votes; a one point swing is about 15,030 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +3.2 and D +13.4. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +4.1. Your best recent poll is Z to A Research (D) at D +3.7; your worst is Marquette University at D +2.9. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Democrats: Milwaukee, a projected net 201,648 votes; Dane, a projected net 200,908 votes; Rock, a projected net 11,801 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Brown, R +3.5, 4.3% of the vote; Outagamie, R +5.3, 3.2% of the vote; Racine, R +1.5, 3.1% of the vote; Winnebago, D +0.5, 2.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, David Crowley runs furthest behind in Washington, Waukesha, Ozaukee. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 89% of voters, 49 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.44 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 76% of voters, 52 to 47, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.79 points; Voters without a degree, 62% of voters, 50 to 48, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.11 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for David Crowley: Immigration voters 17 to 81, Small counties 40 to 58, Voters who can afford daily costs 44 to 55. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$2.8M cash against $12.0M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Tom Tiffany's strongest asset
Cash: $12.0M in the bank against $2.8M for David Crowley.
- Close the gap
Tom Tiffany trails by 5.0 and wins 21% of simulations. Closing it takes about 74,549 voters switching sides, or 149,098 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +13.4 and R +3.2. A normal polling error decides it.
- The polls
The polls page average is D +4.1. Your best recent poll is Marquette University at D +2.9; your worst is Z to A Research (D) at D +3.7. 3 polls in the last 30 days.
- Turn out the base
The biggest vote banks for Republicans: Waukesha, a projected net 47,206 votes; Washington, a projected net 29,239 votes; Fond du Lac, a projected net 13,260 votes. Every point of extra turnout here is worth more than persuasion anywhere else.
- Win the battlegrounds
The large counties within 12 points: Brown, R +3.5, 4.3% of the vote; Outagamie, R +5.3, 3.2% of the vote; Racine, R +1.5, 3.1% of the vote; Winnebago, D +0.5, 2.8% of the vote.
- Where you run behind the 2024 map
Against the 2024 presidential vote, Tom Tiffany runs furthest behind in Milwaukee, Dane, La Crosse. That is where the forecast sees voters who backed your side two years ago and have not come back yet.
- The coalition levers
Groups big enough to move the race: White voters, 89% of voters, 50 to 49, where a 5 point gain is worth 4.44 points; Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024, 76% of voters, 47 to 52, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.79 points; Voters without a degree, 62% of voters, 48 to 50, where a 5 point gain is worth 3.11 points.
- Where you lose ground
The forecast's worst groups for Tom Tiffany: Black voters 15 to 83, Corruption voters 28 to 70, Large counties 31 to 67. Cutting the loss here is often cheaper than winning new groups.
- The money
$12.0M cash against $2.8M. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- David Crowley's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
The map for Crowley
County projections from the forecast| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee | D +48.3 | 13.9% | +201,648 |
| Dane | D +61.1 | 10.9% | +200,908 |
| Rock | D +15.5 | 2.5% | +11,801 |
| La Crosse | D +18.3 | 2.1% | +11,512 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brown | R +3.5 | 4.3% | -4,535 |
| Outagamie | R +5.3 | 3.2% | -5,148 |
| Racine | R +1.5 | 3.1% | -1,418 |
| Winnebago | D +0.5 | 2.8% | +385 |
| County | Forecast | Vote share | Net D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | R +36.8 | 2.6% | -29,239 |
| Waukesha | R +19.6 | 8% | -47,206 |
| Ozaukee | R +8.9 | 1.9% | -4,977 |
The coalition
Crowley against Tiffany among the groups that can move it, from the forecast's voter group estimates- White voters89% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 4.4
- Voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 202476% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.8
- Voters without a degree62% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.1
- Voters who find daily costs hard to afford61% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 3.0
- Immigration voters9% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 0.4
- Small counties22% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 1.1
- Voters who can afford daily costs40% of voters · a 5 point gain is worth 2.0
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its source- David Crowley's money is labor and party money. His committee, Crowley for Wisconsin, raised $10,203,455.52 from July 1 to September 23, 2026, per the [September cover page]( Of that, $6,054,458.19 came from 52,279 individual contributions and $4,138,600.01 came from 62 transfers. Those transfers include $2,730,000 from the Democratic Party of Wisconsin and a long run of union PACs at or near the $86,000 cap, per the [transfers schedule]( He is outspent on ads $40 million to $26 million, per AdImpact data cited by AP.
- Four interests combine money with a live decision:
Top donor blocs: Labor unions, Party and leadership, Billionaire megadonor
- Tom Tiffany is running the most concentrated campaign in recent Wisconsin history. His state committee, Tiffany for Wisconsin, reported $26,314,950.42 raised from July 1 to September 23, 2026, and $24,200,000 of it arrived in eleven transfers from the Republican Party of Wisconsin, per the [September transfers schedule]( In the same period the party took $22,000,000 from Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein and $5,600,000 from Diane Hendricks, per the [party's own filing]( The filings show the money in and the money out on matching dates; they do not show a direct pass through, and this file does not store one.
- Four interests combine large money with a live decision:
Top donor blocs: Billionaire megadonor, Party and leadership, Ideological groups
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +5.0
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +13.4 and R +3.2
- Polling average
- D +4.1
- Partisan lean
- D +0.6
Recent polls
Last 45 days| Pollster | Days ago | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov for City Forward Collective | 6 | 1,715 RV | D +3.0 |
| Z to A Research (D) | 14 | 662 LV | D +3.7 |
| Marquette University | 22 | 750 LV | D +2.9 |
Money and the air war
Latest reports| Crowley | Tiffany | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $12.0M | $43.0M |
| Spent | n/a | n/a |
| Cash on hand | $2.8M | $12.0M |
| Outside money for | n/a | n/a |
| Google ads | n/a | n/a |
- Outside groups combined, airings 9/28 to 10/11 Source$8.4M
The early vote
Wisconsin, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 713,940
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- D +24.4
- Forecast expected
- D +25.6
- Against expectation
- 1.2 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audience- 2026-10-26Judd Legum reporter, leans D
Reported in Popular Information that mailers from a so called Progressive Alliance of Wisconsin attacking Democrat David Crowley from the left were paid through an Oklahoma firm that mainly works for Republicans. Source
- 2026-08-02Hasan Piker influencer, leans D
Endorsed Democratic socialist Francesca Hong in the Democratic primary and appeared at her Milwaukee rally. Source
On the trail
Rallies and events, newest first- 2026-11-02Tom Tiffany announced in Superior
Scheduled Common Sense Bus Tour stop, a stop, on a 10 day tour the campaign says will feature Sen. Ron Johnson, Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker among other guests. Source
- 2026-11-02Tom Tiffany announced in Altoona
Scheduled Common Sense Bus Tour stop, a stop, on a 10 day tour the campaign says will feature Sen. Ron Johnson, Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker among other guests. Source
- 2026-11-02Tom Tiffany announced in La Crosse
Scheduled Common Sense Bus Tour stop, a stop, on a 10 day tour the campaign says will feature Sen. Ron Johnson, Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker among other guests. Source
- 2026-11-02Tom Tiffany announced in Cottage Grove
Scheduled Common Sense Bus Tour stop, a stop, on a 10 day tour the campaign says will feature Sen. Ron Johnson, Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker among other guests. Source
- 2026-11-02Tom Tiffany announced in Delafield
Scheduled Common Sense Bus Tour stop, a stop, on a 10 day tour the campaign says will feature Sen. Ron Johnson, Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker among other guests. Source
- 2026-11-02Tom Tiffany announced in Green Bay
Scheduled Common Sense Bus Tour stop, a Tavern Talk, on a 10 day tour the campaign says will feature Sen. Ron Johnson, Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker among other guests. Source
- 2026-11-02Tom Tiffany announced in Rothschild
Scheduled Common Sense Bus Tour stop, a stop, on a 10 day tour the campaign says will feature Sen. Ron Johnson, Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker among other guests. Source
- 2026-11-01Tom Tiffany announced in Madison
Scheduled Common Sense Bus Tour stop, a stop, on a 10 day tour the campaign says will feature Sen. Ron Johnson, Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker among other guests. Source
- 2026-11-01Tom Tiffany announced in Wisconsin Dells
Scheduled Common Sense Bus Tour stop, a stop, on a 10 day tour the campaign says will feature Sen. Ron Johnson, Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker among other guests. Source
- 2026-11-01Tom Tiffany announced in Stevens Point
Scheduled Common Sense Bus Tour stop, a stop, on a 10 day tour the campaign says will feature Sen. Ron Johnson, Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker among other guests. Source
- 2026-11-01Tom Tiffany announced in Harshaw
Scheduled Common Sense Bus Tour stop, a stop, on a 10 day tour the campaign says will feature Sen. Ron Johnson, Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker among other guests. Source
- 2026-10-31Tom Tiffany announced in Burlington
Scheduled Common Sense Bus Tour stop, a stop, on a 10 day tour the campaign says will feature Sen. Ron Johnson, Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker among other guests. Source