Marist poll shows Jackson edging Collins in Maine and a tied governor's race, drawing pushback from Nate Silver
Troy Jackson leads Sen. Susan Collins 49% to 47% among likely voters, and Hannah Pingree and Bobby Charles are tied at 44%. Leads were larger among registered voters.
A Marist Poll released Tuesday found Democrat Troy Jackson at 49% and Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 47% among likely voters, within the margin of error, the Portland Press Herald reported. Among registered voters, Jackson led by 9 points, WABI reported, putting the likely voter margin of error at plus or minus 6.6 points and the registered voter margin at plus or minus 4.1 points for a sample of 1,449 Mainers.
In the governor's race, Democrat Hannah Pingree and Republican Bobby Charles were tied at 44% among likely voters, with independent Rick Bennett at 6% and 6% undecided, while Pingree led by 11 points among registered voters, the Press Herald reported. The paper said it was the first poll to show the governor's race this close after Charles trailed by double digits in most earlier surveys. The Press Herald also reported that 57% of respondents were unhappy with Trump's second term and 41% said they were voting "against the president."
Forecaster Nate Silver questioned the gap between the registered and likely voter results, arguing Democrats were unlikely to fall 7 points between the two groups when Democratic turnout looks high, The Daily Beast reported. On the governor's race Silver wrote "certainly not by 11 points LOL," according to The Daily Beast, which said Marist did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
What is established
- Marist, Maine Senate likely voters: Jackson 49%, Collins 47%.
- Marist, Maine Senate registered voters: Jackson ahead by 9 points.
- Marist, Maine governor likely voters: Pingree 44%, Charles 44%, Bennett 6%, undecided 6%.
- Among independents, Jackson led Collins 50% to 41%, per the Press Herald.
- 57% said they were unhappy with Trump's second term.
What each side says
Democrats are unlikely to drop 7 points between registered and likely voters, and the 11 point registered voter lead for Pingree is not credible, per The Daily Beast.
Did not immediately respond to a request for comment, The Daily Beast reported.
How it was covered
Left No reports
The Daily Beast framed the story around Silver calling the poll's likely voter model into question.
Center 3 reports
The Portland Press Herald and WABI led with both races as dead heats one week before the election.