2026 forecast
Maine Governor forecast
Hannah Pingree vs Bobby Charles, an open seat. The model has Pingree ahead by 11.6 points, winning 98 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
16 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +17.9 and D +5.1. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +11.7 | |
| The Washington Post-Schar School | 800 LV | 8d | D +12.4 |
| Marist College | 1,505 RV | 9d | D +9.5 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 1,144 LV | 12d | D +11.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | 1,240 LV | 13d | D +12.6 |
| Maine People's Resource Center (D) | 684 LV | 14d | D +14.3 |
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP | 982 LV | 21d | D +12.6 |
| New York Times/Siena University | 619 LV | 21d | D +12.7 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,312 LV | 22d | D +8.3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,312 LV | 22d | D +8.3 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 650 LV | 29d | D +10.2 |
| YouGov | 1,335 LV | 35d | D +10.2 |
| SSRS | 880 LV | 37d | D +12.0 |
| Beacon Research / Shaw & Co. | 1,000 RV | 64d | D +10.8 |
| University of New Hampshire | 1,178 LV | 85d | D +14.3 |
| New York Times / Portland Press Herald / Siena | 608 LV | 109d | D +13.7 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Pingree | Charles |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 45% | 46.6 | 46.1 |
| Women | 55% | 56.7 | 36.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 13% | 54.3 | 38.1 |
| 30 to 44 | 20% | 51.4 | 41.4 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 49.2 | 43.5 |
| 65+ | 34% | 54.8 | 38.0 |
| RaceWhite | 94% | 50.7 | 42.0 |
| Latino | 2% | 68.1 | 24.9 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 73.5 | 18.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 41% | 44.6 | 48.2 |
| White women | 52% | 55.6 | 37.1 |
| All other races | 4% | 73.5 | 18.1 |