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2026 forecast · West Virginia Senate

Shelley Moore Capito is all but certain to win West Virginia's Senate seat.

Rachel Fetty Anderson vs Shelley Moore Capito. The model has Capito ahead by 32.4 points, winning 100 percent of 2,000 simulated elections.

Safe RModel R +32.4Updated October 28, 2026
Rachel Fetty Anderson
Democrat
32.6%
198,284 projected votes
Shelley Moore Capito
Republican
65.0%
395,448 projected votes
100%Capito
0%Anderson
Capito all but certainEach square is one simulated election night, Capito wins about 100 of 100
RatingSafe R100% chance for Capito
Model marginR +32.4No polls in the race
80 percent rangeR +23.2 to R +41.32,000 simulations
Projected votes608,831Capito 65.0%

The county map

Four ways to read the state: margin, shift from 2024, vote bubbles and turnout

West Virginia Senate by county

Barbour CountyBerkeley CountyBoone CountyBraxton CountyBrooke CountyCabell CountyCalhoun CountyClay CountyDoddridge CountyFayette CountyGilmer CountyGrant CountyGreenbrier CountyHampshire CountyHancock CountyHardy CountyHarrison CountyJackson CountyJefferson CountyKanawha CountyLewis CountyLincoln CountyLogan CountyMcDowell CountyMarion CountyMarshall CountyMason CountyMercer CountyMineral CountyMingo CountyMonongalia CountyMonroe CountyMorgan CountyNicholas CountyOhio CountyPendleton CountyPleasants CountyPocahontas CountyPreston CountyPutnam CountyRaleigh CountyRandolph CountyRitchie CountyRoane CountySummers CountyTaylor CountyTucker CountyTyler CountyUpshur CountyWayne CountyWebster CountyWetzel CountyWirt CountyWood CountyWyoming County
D +40R +40Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Monongalia County: Anderson +5,293Jefferson County: Anderson +34Raleigh County: Capito +11,118Mercer County: Capito +10,230Wood County: Capito +10,088Berkeley County: Capito +9,377Putnam County: Capito +8,877Kanawha County: Capito +8,144Harrison County: Capito +6,479Logan County: Capito +5,479Wayne County: Capito +5,459Marshall County: Capito +5,146Jackson County: Capito +5,113Mineral County: Capito +5,063Preston County: Capito +4,915Cabell County: Capito +4,615Mingo County: Capito +4,558Greenbrier County: Capito +4,430Mason County: Capito +4,187Nicholas County: Capito +4,182Hampshire County: Capito +4,116Upshur County: Capito +4,022Fayette County: Capito +3,964Ohio County: Capito +3,943Wyoming County: Capito +3,772Hancock County: Capito +3,744Randolph County: Capito +3,473Grant County: Capito +3,239Boone County: Capito +3,149Lincoln County: Capito +3,141Morgan County: Capito +2,942Lewis County: Capito +2,816Brooke County: Capito +2,814Monroe County: Capito +2,808Marion County: Capito +2,634Barbour County: Capito +2,612Hardy County: Capito +2,493Wetzel County: Capito +2,265McDowell County: Capito +2,229Taylor County: Capito +2,218Ritchie County: Capito +2,127Roane County: Capito +2,049Summers County: Capito +1,859Tyler County: Capito +1,816Braxton County: Capito +1,809Doddridge County: Capito +1,722Clay County: Capito +1,437Pendleton County: Capito +1,391Pleasants County: Capito +1,374Webster County: Capito +1,330Calhoun County: Capito +1,290Pocahontas County: Capito +1,232Wirt County: Capito +1,202Tucker County: Capito +1,048Gilmer County: Capito +943
Anderson +5,327 net votes from 2 countiesStatewide R +32.4, a 197,156 vote marginCapito +202,483 net votes from 53 counties
Play it outMove West Virginia yourself
County what ifSwing any county or region and watch the statewide result moveDemographic swingometerShift turnout and support by group, county by countyEarly vote benchmarksWhere each side needs the early vote to be by now

Vote share

Each candidate's projected share and the range of 80 percent of simulations

Rachel Fetty AndersonDemocrat · 0% to win
32.6%
Shelley Moore CapitoRepublican · 100% to win
65.0%

Scale runs from 25 to 75 percent. The dot is the forecast, the band is the 80 percent range and the brighter tick marks 50 percent.

Projected statewide vote

608,831 votes
CandidateVotesShare
Shelley Moore Capito R395,44865.0%
Rachel Fetty Anderson D198,28432.6%
Other / independents O15,0992.5%
Total608,831100%

Each candidate's expected vote in the On Point simulation, at the forecast's projected turnout.

Every simulated outcome

2,000 sims
D +0.7: 2 simulationsR +1.0: 1 simulationsR +2.7: 0 simulationsR +4.4: 1 simulationsR +6.2: 4 simulationsR +7.9: 2 simulationsR +9.6: 3 simulationsR +11.3: 3 simulationsR +13.1: 9 simulationsR +14.8: 19 simulationsR +16.5: 17 simulationsR +18.2: 23 simulationsR +20.0: 38 simulationsR +21.7: 44 simulationsR +23.4: 87 simulationsR +25.1: 115 simulationsR +26.9: 124 simulationsR +28.6: 156 simulationsR +30.3: 193 simulationsR +32.0: 184 simulationsR +33.8: 193 simulationsR +35.5: 184 simulationsR +37.2: 154 simulationsR +38.9: 136 simulationsR +40.7: 118 simulationsR +42.4: 68 simulationsR +44.1: 52 simulationsR +45.8: 29 simulationsR +47.6: 14 simulationsR +49.3: 7 simulationsR +51.0: 11 simulationsR +52.7: 2 simulationsR +54.5: 1 simulationsR +56.2: 2 simulationsR +57.9: 2 simulationsR +59.6: 1 simulationsR +61.4: 0 simulationsR +63.1: 0 simulationsR +64.8: 0 simulationsR +66.5: 1 simulationsD +1.6R +67.4

80 percent of simulations fall between R +23.2 and R +41.3. Negative margins are Democratic wins.

The trend

Each side's chance of winning over the forecast's recent updates

0%25%50%75%100%0% Anderson100% Capito17 updates agoToday

Polling

Every poll in the average, and how the model reads it

Polls of the race

PollsterSampleAgeMargin
On Point averageWeighted averageNo polls

Each margin is the poll as the pollster published it. The forecast counts every poll after its house effect and the undecided split, which is what the trail above shows; hover a margin for the counted value. Lean R and Lean D mark partisan leaning firms.

Model margin
Capito +32.4
Chance of winning
Rachel Fetty Anderson0%
Shelley Moore Capito100%
Simulated vote
Rachel Fetty Anderson32.6%
Shelley Moore Capito65.0%
Other / independents2.5%
How the model gets there
Partisan leanR +42.7
FundamentalsR +32.1
With pollsR +32.4

Who has endorsed

8 public endorsements in this race, each with where it was reported.

Shelley Moore Capito8
  • Donald TrumpPresidentsource
  • Jim JusticeU.S. Senator, WVsource
  • Carol MillerU.S. Rep., WV-01source
  • Riley MooreU.S. Rep., WV-02source
  • Maggie's ListPAC supporting conservative women candidatessource
  • Log Cabin RepublicansLGBT Republican group, Federal PACsource
  • West Virginia Chamber PACPolitical arm of the West Virginia Chamber of Commercesource
  • U.S. Chamber of CommerceBusiness groupsource
Every endorsement on Watchdog

How we got here

From the state's partisan lean to the forecast, one stage at a time

D +51R +51Partisan leanthe state's baselineR +42.7Fundamentalsapproval, economy, candidatesR +32.1With pollsno pollsR +32.4

Who votes for whom

Estimated vote by group from the model's simulated electorate

Estimated vote by group

model crosstabs
GroupShareAndersonCapito
GenderMen44%29.967.1
Women56%34.262.7
Age18 to 2911%41.455.5
30 to 4417%32.864.0
45 to 6434%30.666.3
65+39%31.265.9
RaceWhite95%30.766.3
Black2%77.119.9
Asian and other2%52.144.6
Race and genderWhite men42%28.168.9
White women54%32.764.2
Black men1%70.726.3
Black women1%82.314.7
All other races2%52.144.6

Every county

The projected vote in each county, largest first

Projected vote by county

55 counties
CountyAndersonCapitoOtherTotalMargin
Statewide198,288395,44415,099608,831R +32.4
Kanawha County26,15134,2951,10461,550R +13.2
Berkeley County15,15324,5301,01740,700R +23.0
Monongalia County20,77615,4831,19537,454D +14.1
Cabell County12,39817,01362930,040R +15.4
Wood County9,48519,57374629,804R +33.9
Raleigh County6,38117,49946324,343R +45.7
Harrison County7,95814,43769123,086R +28.1
Jefferson County10,93010,89651322,339D +0.1
Putnam County5,86114,73842121,020R +42.2
Marion County8,27510,90963319,817R +13.3
Mercer County4,15314,38337818,914R +54.1
Ohio County5,5699,51229215,373R +25.6
Fayette County4,1348,09830112,533R +31.6
Wayne County3,3578,81627312,446R +43.9
Greenbrier County3,8688,29827312,439R +35.6
Preston County2,9667,88158411,431R +43.0
Marshall County2,6997,84519310,737R +47.9
Hancock County3,1266,87030810,304R +36.3
Jackson County2,3437,4561909,989R +51.2
Mineral County2,2397,3023469,887R +51.2
Randolph County2,8696,3422659,476R +36.6
Logan County1,7197,1981459,062R +60.5
Mason County1,9276,1142068,247R +50.8
Nicholas County1,8956,0772058,177R +51.1
Hampshire County1,8305,9462167,992R +51.5
Upshur County1,8255,8472217,893R +51.0
Brooke County2,3795,1932347,806R +36.0
Mingo County1,0755,6331366,844R +66.6
Boone County1,6814,8301276,638R +47.4
Morgan County1,7334,6751776,585R +44.7
Wyoming County1,0604,8321086,000R +62.9
Lincoln County1,2924,4331355,860R +53.6
Taylor County1,6133,8311985,642R +39.3
Lewis County1,3024,1181625,582R +50.5
Barbour County1,1263,7381455,009R +52.1
Hardy County1,1763,6691404,985R +50.0
Monroe County1,0183,8261094,953R +56.7
Wetzel County1,2163,4811554,852R +46.7
Roane County1,1783,227944,499R +45.5
McDowell County1,0893,318814,488R +49.7
Grant County4563,6951164,267R +75.9
Braxton County1,1772,9861014,264R +42.4
Summers County1,1423,0011004,243R +43.8
Pocahontas County8962,1281203,144R +39.2
Ritchie County4452,572933,110R +68.4
Tucker County8641,9121432,919R +35.9
Tyler County4992,315962,910R +62.4
Pleasants County5911,965842,640R +52.0
Clay County5411,978562,575R +55.8
Pendleton County5671,958442,569R +54.1
Doddridge County3602,082832,525R +68.2
Webster County5171,847652,429R +54.8
Calhoun County4861,776632,325R +55.5
Gilmer County5551,498762,129R +44.3
Wirt County3671,569501,986R +60.5

Projected 2026 votes from the On Point simulation: each county's expected turnout times its simulated vote share. Totals may differ from the race total by rounding.

On Point on YouTubeThe West Virginia Senate race, explained on YouTubeForecast breakdowns, the polls and election night coverage on the On Point channel.Subscribe
Methodology
Every county is rebuilt by simulating voters going to the polls, 2,000 times, from On Point Polling survey data, past results, and the polling average. How the model works.