How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Tennessee TN-09
Justin Pearson vs Brent Taylor
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2557
Raised $3.6M against $2.7M for Brent Taylor.
- Cash weight 2074
$1.2M in the bank against $417K for Brent Taylor. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1567
Outside groups spent $1.3M helping Justin Pearson and $638K helping Brent Taylor.
- National tide weight 1580
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.01 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.1 points of that tide, a tailwind for Justin Pearson.
- Activity weight 1025
$53K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2543
Raised $2.7M against $3.6M for Justin Pearson.
- Cash weight 2026
$417K in the bank against $1.2M for Justin Pearson. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1533
Outside groups spent $638K helping Brent Taylor and $1.3M helping Justin Pearson.
- National tide weight 1520
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.01 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 14.1 points of that tide, a headwind for Brent Taylor.
- Activity weight 1025
$74K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Justin Pearson leads by 0.3 in the forecast and wins 51% of simulations. The cushion is about 670 votes; a one point swing is about 1,288 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +8.3 and D +8.8. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$1.2M cash against $417K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- Brent Taylor's strongest asset
Money: Raised $2.7M against $3.6M for Justin Pearson.
- Close the gap
Brent Taylor trails by 0.3 and wins 49% of simulations. Closing it takes about 335 voters switching sides, or 670 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +8.8 and R +8.3. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$417K cash against $1.2M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- Justin Pearson's strongest asset
National tide: Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +0.3
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +8.8 and R +8.3
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- R +19.5
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Pearson | Taylor | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $3.6M | $2.7M |
| Spent | $2.5M | $1.1M |
| Cash on hand | $1.2M | $417K |
| Outside money for | $1.3M | $638K |
| Google ads | $53K | $74K |
The early vote
Tennessee, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 815,354
- Party data
- Modeled, the state does not report party
- Ballot margin
- R +25.8
- Forecast expected
- R +25.2
- Against expectation
- 0.6 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.