How healthy is each campaign, and how does each side win? A health score for both campaigns in every Senate, governor and contested House race, and the path to victory for each side.
Pennsylvania PA-01
Bob Harvie vs Brian Fitzpatrick
Vital signs
Campaign health, 0 to 100, from public money, outside spending, ballots and activity- Money weight 2527
Raised $2.9M against $7.8M for Brian Fitzpatrick.
- Cash weight 2025
$795K in the bank against $2.4M for Brian Fitzpatrick. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1562
Outside groups spent $3.6M helping Bob Harvie and $2.2M helping Brian Fitzpatrick.
- Early vote weight 784
Registered Democrats cast 66% of the 890,346 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 2.2 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1584
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.17 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 16.4 points of that tide, a tailwind for Bob Harvie.
- Activity weight 1025
$29K in Google political ads this cycle.
- Money weight 2573
Raised $7.8M against $2.9M for Bob Harvie.
- Cash weight 2075
$2.4M in the bank against $795K for Bob Harvie. As of 09/30/2026.
- Air cover weight 1538
Outside groups spent $2.2M helping Brian Fitzpatrick and $3.6M helping Bob Harvie.
- Early vote weight 716
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 890,346 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 66% for the other party. That is 2.2 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now. Statewide numbers; this weighs less for a House race. Counts registration, not votes.
- National tide weight 1516
Gallup party identification moved from Republicans 48 Democrats 45 in the third quarter of 2024 to Democrats 50 Republicans 39 in the third quarter of 2026, 14 points toward the Democrats. This district moves 1.17 points for every point the nation moves, so it feels about 16.4 points of that tide, a headwind for Brian Fitzpatrick.
- Activity weight 1025
$944K in Google political ads this cycle.
How each side wins
From the forecast, the polls, the county map, voter groups, money and ballots- Protect the lead
Bob Harvie leads by 3.6 in the forecast and wins 71% of simulations. The cushion is about 12,976 votes; a one point swing is about 1,782 voters changing sides.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between R +4.7 and D +12.0. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$795K cash against $2.4M. Outspent: lean on earned media, digital, field and the outside groups, and pick the two or three media markets that decide it.
- The early vote
Registered Democrats cast 66% of the 890,346 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 25% for the other party. That is 2.2 points worse for Democrats than the forecast expected by now.
- Brian Fitzpatrick's strongest asset
Cash: $2.4M in the bank against $795K for Bob Harvie.
- Close the gap
Brian Fitzpatrick trails by 3.6 and wins 29% of simulations. Closing it takes about 6,488 voters switching sides, or 12,976 more net votes from new turnout.
- The range
In 8 of 10 simulations the result lands between D +12.0 and R +4.7. A normal polling error decides it.
- The money
$2.4M cash against $795K. Spend it early on persuasion television in the battleground counties and keep a reserve for the last week.
- The early vote
Registered Republicans cast 25% of the 890,346 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 66% for the other party. That is 2.2 points better for Republicans than the forecast expected by now.
- Bob Harvie's strongest asset
Early vote: Registered Democrats cast 66% of the 890,346 ballots in Pennsylvania so far, against 25% for the other party.
Scouting report
From the Watchdog people files, each line with its sourceNo researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
No researched file yet; this candidate is queued for the next people file batch.
The forecast
Margin over recent runs- Now
- D +3.6
- 8 in 10 land between
- D +12.0 and R +4.7
- Polling average
- Even
- Partisan lean
- D +1.0
Recent polls
Last 45 daysNo public polls in the last 45 days; the forecast leans on fundamentals and similar races.
Money and the air war
Reports as of 09/30/2026| Harvie | Fitzpatrick | |
|---|---|---|
| Raised | $2.9M | $7.8M |
| Spent | $1.2M | $9.8M |
| Cash on hand | $795K | $2.4M |
| Outside money for | $3.6M | $2.2M |
| Google ads | $29K | $945K |
The early vote
Pennsylvania, through 2026-10-28- Ballots cast
- 890,346
- Party data
- Reported by the state
- Ballot margin
- D +40.9
- Forecast expected
- D +43.1
- Against expectation
- 2.2 points better for Republicans
Party registration of who has voted, not how they voted. Statewide figures; the district may differ.
Open the early vote trackerMedia watch
Who is putting this race in front of an audienceNothing logged yet for this race.
Media watchOn the trail
Rallies and events, newest firstNo stops logged yet for this race.